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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/28/2006
CRZO (Carrizo Oil & Gas--$31.76; +1.13; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crzo.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After the big runs in 2005 and early 2006 the energy stocks collapsed, but they managed to form new bases. CRZO formed a big double bottom and broke higher, but then faded as oil fell again. It formed the current 5 month base as oil faded and is rallying now that oil has recovered. Strong volume Tuesday, the strongest in three weeks, as it broke higher and headed toward the breakout from this nicely formed base. Nice consolidation pattern right below a new all-time high and it looks ready to make that new high.
Volume: 688.839K Avg Volume: 349.058K
BUY POINT: $32.05 Volume=500K Target=$38.45 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: QOW DF - Apr. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/crzo.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
JWN (Nordstrom--$49.30; -0.13; optionable): High end department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jwn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. JWN broke out in September from an 8 month cup base and rallied to 49 in late October. It then formed a short 5 week cup with handle to consolidate that move, breaking out from that base early last week. It has come back to test this week, holding the 10 day EMA (48.88) Tuesday, tapping the 10 day on the low and showing a tight doji on continued above average volume. Strong money flow continues to lead the way higher, and this doji indicates that JWN is done with this test. Looking for a solid bounce higher from here to enter the play.
Volume: 3.764M Avg Volume: 2.643M
BUY POINT: $49.68 Volume=3M Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: JWN DJ - Apr. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jwn.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
LSI (LSI Logic--$10.73; +0.08; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LSI ignored the market selling Monday, holding fast at the 10 day EMA (10.63) as it continued forming the handle to its 8 month base. Strong money flow continues to surge higher ahead of price even as the stock works laterally. Price/volume action remains excellent as it tests, and money flow continues to rise ahead of price. Solid action, and looking for LSI to hold at this near support, ride out the selling, and then deliver the upside breakout.
Volume: 5.026M Avg Volume: 5.142M
BUY POINT: $10.96 Volume=7.7M Target=$13.22 Stop=$10.44
POSITION: LSI DB - Apr. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lsi.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$39.90; -0.10; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Last week NDAQ broke out form the handle to an 8 month cup with handle base. Strong volume as it made the break, then came back to test the move this week, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low, filling the gap from the breakout. It rebounded to close basically flat. Nice breakout, nice test. Now it looks ready to continue higher.
Volume: 4.213M Avg Volume: 2.559M
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=3M Target=$48.95 Stop=$38.82
POSITION: NQD CH - Mar. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ndaq.html
Ready to move:
Play Date: 11/27/2006
CELG (Celgene--$54.21; -0.14; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still in the very nice test, trading in a narrow range Tuesday on rising but still below average volume. Nicely set up to continue the move and just needs to show us the break higher. To recap: CELG broke out from a 15 week base in late October and was starting to test when it was announced as a new SP500 company. That gapped it higher from there. It continued up the 10 day EMA (54.79) until the past week. Now it is testing, coming back to the 18 day EMA (53.91) on low, below average volume. It tapped that level Monday and rebounded modestly to close. Very nice test of a very nice breakout and run, setting up for the next run higher.
Volume: 3.379M Avg Volume: 4.16M
BUY POINT: $55.48 Volume=4.4M Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.69
POSITION: LQH DK - Apr. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/celg.html
Play Date: 11/27/2006
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$41.80; +1.28; optionable): Oil & Gas offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice price bounce Tuesday but volume remained well below average. Just some more good work in the two week, low and below average volume handle that is consolidating the October and early November run higher, waiting for the 18 day EMA (40.37) to catch up with it. Money flow remains strong as it consolidates in its 19 week base, forming up and preparing for a breakout as oil prices have recovered. This is the shakeout, the quiet time just before the next breakout and run higher.
Volume: 574.2K Avg Volume: 1.161M
POSITION: OII DH - Apr. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/oii.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Still rising on holiday sales anticipation.
AKAM: Holding the 50 day EMA after trading below that level intraday. This is where you would expect it to hold.
CELG; Nice test of the 18 day EMA continues
DRIV: Sold off well below the 18 day EMA intraday but recovered to hold that level. Struggling some here.
GME: Nice test of the 10 day EMA continues
GOOG: Has come back to test support at 475. Pretty solid support at that level, and it bounced off that test sharply Tuesday.
MRVL: Nice test of the 18 day EMA as it continues to rebuild, trying to form the right side of its base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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