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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMX (America Movil--$44.56; +1.35; optionable): Latin American wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. AMX got a bit wild to start the week, fading from a breakout attempt just over a week back. It fell to the 50 day EMA (42) but found purchase there with some strong volume as it bounced off that key support. Looks like a shakeout that has set up the breakout from its short 5 week base that consolidated the early October move out of a larger 5 month pattern. Solid leader looking for a new all-time high.
Volume: 4.759M Avg Volume: 3.883M
BUY POINT: $44.89 Volume=4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.95
POSITION: AMX BI - Feb. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 11/29/2006
DRQ (Dril-Quip--$42.10; +1.20; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drq.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong, strong volume Wednesday as DRQ started the breakout move from its 16 week base. A strong leader in the prior energy rally, and this move Wednesday announces it is back in business to lead again.
Volume: 1.602M Avg Volume: 928.609K
BUY POINT: $42.52 Volume=925K Target=$50.88 Stop=$30.95
POSITION: DRQ CV - Mar. $42.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drq.html
Leader:
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMT (American Tower--$38.23; +1.27; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapping higher on a very strong shot of above average volume. AMT is coming off a test of the 50 day EMA (36.79) to start the week. Not a bad 6 week base formed over the 50 day EMA as it consolidates the September break higher from a larger 16 week base. Nice money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Looking to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 4.902M Avg Volume: 2.321M
BUY POINT: $38.58 Volume=3.4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: AMT DU - Apr. $37.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 10/12 DB hdl 91.80 -0.01 75.55 88.00 41M 32M 87.45
AAPL 08/21 Cup hdl 91.80 -0.01 68.12 78.00 41M 40M 87.45
Current. Gapped higher but could not hold the move, trading
in a wilder session as it was once again stopped at
93. Strong run & now bouncing up and down laterally.
ADS 11/27 Test 18 63.65 +0.84 63.64 72.95 494K 950K 62.42
Entered today. Bounced off of the 18 day EMA. Volume was not strong
but a good bounce off of near support.
ADS 10/26 Test BO 63.65 +0.84 61.17 69.95 494K 1.3M 62.42
Current.
AEOS 11/11 FlyPlat 46.95 +0.55 48.23 55.65 5.2M 3.2M 46.98
Current. Rallied back up on stronger, above avg volume but faded
to close just below the 18 day EMA.
AKAM 11/11 DB hdl 48.60 +0.78 50.81 60.95 3.7M 7.5M 48.04
Current.
AKAM 10/21 Test 50 48.60 +0.78 47.20 55.95 3.7M 7M 48.04
Current. Bounced modestly off the 50 day MA but volume faded,
coming in well below avg. Holding the range, making
a higher low at the 50 day.
ATVI 11/04 PreAnn 16.58 +0.32 16.40 19.65 3.2M 5M 16.35
Current. Tested below the 18 day EMA again but rebounded to
post a gain, holding its up trend.
BBY 11/16 Rev HS 55.15 -0.15 55.63 63.95 4.5M 5M 54.05
Current. Took a lower volume breather over the 50 day SMA.
BIDU 11/07 Asc Bse 111.98 +3.39 91.15 101.95 3.3M 2M 111.45
Current. Nice bounce on solid volume after that Tuesday tap
at the 18 day EMA intraday.
BRCM 11/18 Test 20 32.88 -0.65 35.42 41.95 17M 20M 34.15
Current.
BRCM 09/25 Test 50 32.88 -0.65 30.96 35.68 17M 17M 35.55
Current. Still struggling below the 200 day SMA, slipping toward
some support at 32.50.
CBG 11/06 Test BO 32.66 +0.45 29.65 35.95 2.9M 2.4M 31.57
Current. Reached lower and then rebounded for a modest gain
on rising, avg volume. Nice test, still ready to move
higher.
CELG 11/27 Test 18 55.97 +1.76 55.57 63.95 2.8M 4.4M 53.95
Entered today.
CERN 11/02 Rev HS 47.64 +0.21 49.50 56.95 441K 600K 47.95
Current. Holding the 50 day EMA after the Tuesday doji. In position
for a nice bounce as it holds above the August to Oct
trading range.
CMTL 11/07 Cup hdl 35.88 +0.19 37.38 44.95 144K 275K 35.95
Current.
COH 09/25 Test BO 42.91 +1.07 35.05 40.48 3.1M 5M 41.05
Current. Gapped higher on rising volume, continuing the move higher.
CRM 11/06 Cup hdl 39.15 -0.20 42.40 49.95 1.5M 3M 41.95
Current. Holding the 50 day EMA as volume rises. This is where
it needs to show a strong bounce to clear 42. On a
move that does not clear 42 we will likely close it out.
CTRP 11/18 Test BO 54.98 +0.65 56.72 67.95 223K 600K 54.95
Buy Not Issued.
CTRP 10/28 Test 50 54.98 +0.65 51.00 61.45 223K 577K 57.32
Current. Gapped lower but managed a rebound for a modest gain.
Low trade so need to see another good move here.
CTSH 11/02 Test 50 80.16 +0.91 76.60 87.95 1.2M 2M 77.48
Current. Held the 10 day EMA on the low once more and rebounded.
Still working higher in its trend.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 74.90 +1.35 58.00 69.95 1.2M 1.5M 71.88
Current. Still working higher, moving up the 10 day EMA in its
nice trend.
FMD 11/28 PreSplt 74.30 +0.30 74.68 85.85 837K 1M 72.11
Entered today. Ralled off the 10 day EMA early but gave back most
of the gain by the close. Still perched nicely for
its next run.
GLDN 11/10 Test BO 41.75 +2.34 39.30 46.32 369K 245K 39.04
Current. Russian telecom had a good session and GLDN surged
off of the 18 day EMA test.
GME 10/21 Test BO 55.20 +0.80 53.00 60.45 1.2M 1.7M 52.68
Current. Still a nice test of the 10 day EMA, bouncing Wed off
of the Tuesday test of that level.
HET 11/17 Cup hdl 78.92 +0.46 78.15 87.32 4.6M 3M 75.85
Current. Managed a modest gain on lower but still above avg
volume on the heels of the big Tuesday move.
ICE 10/19 Test 18 97.11 -3.71 83.64 94.95 4.3M 2.4M 97.45
Current. Dove lower but held above the 18 day EMA. Volume was
well above avg, but it is volatile. Will see if it
can hold the 18 day EMA & give us a bounce after this test.
JWN 11/28 Test BO 50.41 +1.11 49.94 58.95 3.6M 3M 48.38
Entered today. Nice break higher off the 10 day EMA on continued strong,
above avg volume.
LH 10/21 Test 50 69.99 +0.79 68.80 78.75 928K 1.5M 68.21
Current. Testing up to resistance at 70 on below avg volume.
Looks solid; needs to show the break higher.
LOGI 11/28 Test 18 29.50 +1.71 28.82 34.38 330K 445K 28.08
Entered today. Gapped higher, posting a strong move but volume did
not follow it. Hard to argue with the move.
LRCX 11/18 Test BO 52.66 -0.59 54.55 62.95 4.6M 4.8M 54.21
Current. Gapped higher but could not hold the recovery mov,
closing modestly lower on rising, above avg volume.
Still holding support at 52.
LRCX 10/21 Test BO 52.66 -0.59 50.00 57.98 4.6M 4M 54.78
Current.
LVS 10/28 Cup hdl 93.01 +1.68 76.60 88.95 2.1M 3.1M 89.95
Current. Moving higher over the 10 day EMA but no definitive
move as it continues to consolidate the strong early
November surge.
MA 11/11 Test BO 99.20 -1.55 94.25 104.95 4.9M 3M 100.75
Target Hit. Gapped higher but reversed for a modest loss. Managed
to hold the 10 day EMA as it rebounded to close.
MON 11/21 DB hdl 47.32 +0.13 48.44 55.55 2.4M 5.4M 46.48
Current. Held the 18 day EMA again on an intraday test and posted
a modest move. Still set to make the next big break higher.
MTW 11/02 Test BO 59.92 +4.16 55.50 66.48 1.6M 1.3M 56.95
Current. Great reversal of the Tuesday weakness. Strong volume
as it broke to a new all-time high, just the action
you want to see when a new high is hit.
NBL 11/04 Cup hdl 53.11 +2.46 50.55 57.85 1.9M 1.7M 51.95
Current. Great break higher on strong volume as NBL breaks to
a new all-time high. Sweet move.
NVEC 11/11 Test BO 39.98 +0.80 42.75 51.95 509K 1.1M 40.95
Current. Doji below the 18 day EMA as it tries to hold support
at 40.
NVLS 11/18 Test BO 31.55 -0.06 31.80 37.98 2.9M 3.9M 31.54
Current. Holding the 10 day EMA on lower volume, taking a breather.
OII 11/27 Cup hdl 42.97 +1.17 42.32 50.94 835K 1.7M 39.98
Buy Not Issued.
QLGC 11/28 Test BO 22.22 -0.07 22.45 26.95 2.9M 2.7M 21.44
Buy Not Issued.
QLGC 10/30 Test BO 22.22 -0.07 20.65 24.65 2.9M 3M 21.78
Current. Held steady after the Tuesday test of the 18 day EMA
and solid rebound. Still a nice trend higher up the
10 day EMA.
SAY 11/13 Cup hdl 23.37 +0.42 23.11 27.72 673K 1.1M 22.68
Current. Solid move higher after that gap lower and recovery
Tuesday. Good rescue club.
SINA 11/21 Test BO 28.26 +0.20 28.89 33.88 448K 950K 27.45
Buy Not Issued.
SMSC 11/18 Test BO 31.94 +0.05 32.63 37.95 173K 450K 31.35
Current.
SMSC 10/03 Cup hdl 31.94 +0.05 29.21 34.75 173K 504K 31.89
Current. Doji at the 18 day EMA, sill holding nicely for the
next break higher.
SMSC 09/16 Cup hdl 31.94 +0.05 30.05 34.75 173K 504K 31.89
Current.
SUPX 11/18 Asc Bse 46.33 +1.08 46.65 54.85 223K 445K 45.95
Current. Continues the recovery on higher volume after that
Tuesday test way down below 44.
THQI 11/29 Test 50 32.29 +1.07 32.43 38.65 1.9M 2M 20.69
Entered today. Bonus. Kept an eye on THQI and it surged through the
Oct and Nov highs Wednesday on strong volume, moving
to a new closing high.
UARM 11/14 Test 50 46.18 -0.47 46.69 53.95 846K 1.3M 46.48
Current. Trying to hang on after that effective downgrade on
Tuesday. Bigger picture it is still in its 7 week lateral
move.
VSEA 11/11 Test 50 39.50 +0.01 39.55 44.88 816K 1.2M 39.95
Current. Holding near the 18 day EMA once more, trying to make
a higher low and continue its move higher.
XTO 11/28 Rev HS 50.29 +1.88 49.44 58.95 5.7M 6M 47.95
Entered today. Excellent surge higher on even stronger, above avg
volume. Sweet breakout.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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