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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/30/2006
CELG (Celgene--$55.73; -0.24; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Great breakout in late October with a gap higher out of a 4 month base. Strong surge up the 10 day EMA (55.14), testing back to the 18 day EMA (54.30) this past week. Nice surge Wednesday and a modest test Thursday. One of the leaders in a sector that is attracting a lot of money and will continue to do so even if the other parts of the market take a breather.
Volume: 3.819M Avg Volume: 4.148M
BUY POINT: $56.45 Volume=4.4M Target=$64.85 Stop=$54.05
POSITION: LQH DK - Apr. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/celg.html
Play Date: 11/30/2006
ISE (International Securities Exchange--$53.18; +0.18; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ise.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ISE has formed this short 5 week pattern to consolidate a solid move in September and October as if finished and broke out of an 8 month base to a new high (IPO'd in March 2005). Used the 50 day EMA (49.46) as support in early November to form the short base and is holding the 10 day EMA on the close this week as it makes the test. Solid and just looking for a break higher on a resumption in strong volume.
Volume: 626K Avg Volume: 807.286K
BUY POINT: $53.75 Volume=1M Target=$63.45 Stop=$51.65
POSITION: ISE DK - Apr. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ise.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADS 11/27 Test 18 64.71 +1.06 63.64 72.95 1.3M 950K 62.72
Current.
ADS 10/26 Test BO 64.71 +1.06 61.17 69.95 1.3M 1.3M 62.42
Current. Another nice move on an excellent volume surge. Hit
a new high intraday but could not hold it in that very
late afternoon market fade. Still trending higher up
the 10 & 18 day EMA.
AH 11/29 Dbl btm 56.55 -0.88 57.72 66.45 619K 825K 55.38
Buy Not Hit. Faded back on below avg volume as the news on the big
order became old news. Positioned well to continue
off the bottom of its base. If it does we will gladly
participate. It is up to AH.
AKAM 11/11 DB hdl 48.87 +0.27 50.81 60.95 2.7M 7.5M 48.04
Current.
AKAM 10/21 Test 50 48.87 +0.27 47.20 55.95 2.7M 7M 48.04
Current. Holding the move off the 50 day MA as it makes higher lows in its 8 week ascending base. Volume has backed off this week, however, so it is likely not going to make a significant break just yet without another modest pullback.
ALXN 11/27 Test BO 43.22 -0.03 43.75 51.95 823K 800K 42.15
Buy Not Issued. Another day, another doji at the 18 day EMA as ALXN
tests the early month breakout. Still very nice set
up for a breakout.
AMAG 11/28 Test BO 55.72 +0.59 56.15 66.95 155K 350K 52.95
Buy Not Issued.
AMAG 11/04 Test BO 55.72 +0.59 40.95 48.98 155K 350K 55.88
Current. Another leader whose prognosis is excellent as it tests
above the 10 day EMA (53.83) after that strong breakout
two weeks back. Set up nicely to continue higher.
AMX 11/29 Asc Bse 44.47 -0.09 44.89 53.95 4.3M 4M 42.95
Buy Not Hit. Solid session, showing a doji that tapped the 18 day
EMA on the lwo and rebounded. Nicely set up to move higher.
APC 11/29 DB hdl 49.36 -0.27 49.95 56.85 4M 5.5M 48.38
Entered today. Nice run higher from the midmorning low gave us a good entry point. Then it got the last half hour dips and gave back the move. Still a good breakout Wednesday & lower volume Thurs so not in a sweat about this given the great pattern.
BIDU 11/07 Asc Bse 115.78 +3.80 91.15 101.95 3M 2M 111.45
Current. We said it was volatile and thus we gave it some rope
on this last test. It bounced off the 18 day MA Monday
and is surging back up every since.
BMRN 10/11 DB hdl 17.11 -0.25 16.62 19.95 772K 1.2M 16.88
Current. One of the best slow moving patterns out there. BMRN is in the right sector, has the pattern, gave us the break higher, but cannot take it to the next level. The sector is heating up. BMRN needs to show us a move off of the 18 day EMA here.
BRCM 11/18 Test 20 32.83 -0.05 35.42 41.95 19M 20M 34.15
Current. Current. Slipped a bit more but held support at 32.50 as volume moved to average. It is bunching up at this level with buyers holding it up at support. Starting to look like a bonce back up & we will still look at more positions as it makes the move higher.
BRCM 09/25 Test 50 32.83 -0.05 30.96 35.68 19M 17M 35.55
Current.
COGO 11/20 Test BO 16.24 +0.24 17.32 20.78 326K 850K 16.21
Buy Not Issued. Still working on a higher low above the 50 day EMA
(15.47). Set to bounce, just needs to show it.
COH 09/25 Test BO 43.21 +0.30 35.05 40.48 3.7M 5M 41.24
Current. Nice move up the 10 day EMA continues as volume rallied
to average as it made the move. Solid trend higher
up this near support, moving to a new all-time high.
CRM 11/06 Cup hdl 39.00 -0.15 42.40 49.95 1.7M 3M 41.95
Current. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA. This is where
it has to make its move. Again, a move to 42 that can
not break thru is a point where we likely have to close
it out.
CTRP 11/18 Test BO 55.52 +0.54 56.72 67.95 129K 600K 54.95
Buy Not Issued.
CTRP 10/28 Test 50 55.52 +0.54 51.00 61.45 129K 577K 57.32
Current. Another volatile Chinese stock, but rebounding a bit
more Thurs though volume remained very low. Nice hold
and still looking at a continuation of the early November
run.
CYMI 11/18 Cup hdl 47.25 +0.55 49.05 56.45 808K 1.2M 47.48
Buy Not Issued. Held the 50 day MA and started to bounce. Good point
to hold and show the next break higher.
EZPW 10/21 Test BO 46.72 +0.82 44.12 51.95 487K 750K 46.55
Current. Volume was up as EZPW tested the 10 day EMA and then
posted a solid gain. After the three week pullback
it looks ready to resume the move.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 74.81 -0.09 58.00 69.95 777K 1.5M 71.88
Current. Clsoed basically flat after trading up and down on
lower volume. Still in its nice trend up the 10 day EMA.
GLDN 11/10 Test BO 40.62 -1.12 39.30 46.32 216K 245K 39.04
Current. Not such a golden move, but volume was lower as GLDN
gave back some of the strong volume Wed move. Still
in a nice trend higher.
GME 10/21 Test BO 56.05 +0.85 53.00 60.45 1.5M 1.7M 53.95
Current. Nice break off the 10 day EMA on rising, above avg
volume that is continuing the nice trend higher.
GME 10/11 Cup hdl 56.05 +0.85 49.84 58.95 1.5M 2.1M 53.95
Current. Nice break off the 10 day EMA on rising, above avg
volume that is continuing the nice trend higher.
HET 11/17 Cup hdl 78.70 -0.22 78.15 87.32 2.8M 3M 77.11
Current. Doji on very low volume after the strong Monday break
higher. Good rest to regroup and continue on with the
breakout. Let it ride, etc.
HOC 10/10 Dbl btm 54.01 -0.03 46.82 54.50 670K 1.2M 52.11
Target Hit.
ICE 10/18 Test 18 98.25 +1.15 83.64 94.95 2.8M 2.4M 97.45
Current. Recovered some of the lost ground from Wednesday, but
after moving up thru the 10 day MA it did all it could
to hold that levl on the close. Still more of a normal
pullback in a continuing uptrend at this juncture.
IIG 11/27 Test BO 22.99 +0.12 22.78 27.45 233K 425K 21.78
Current.
IIG 10/25 Asc Bse 22.99 +0.12 16.49 19.95 233K 200K 23.68
Current. Gapped higher but then gave back most of the gain on
lower, below avg volume. Nothing to get concerned about
at this point.
IM 10/25 DB hdl 20.38 -0.17 20.84 24.95 1M 1.5M 20.44
Current. Tapped toward the 50 day SMA on the low and rebounded
to recoup some losses. Much stronger, above avg volume
on the move. Making a deeper test toward the 50 day.
Now we want to see it make the rebound.
LH 10/28 Cup hdl 70.80 +0.81 68.80 78.75 943K 1.5M 67.22
Buy Not Issued. Just no volume on this move so going to drop for now.
LRCX 11/18 Test BO 52.60 -0.06 54.55 62.95 4.9M 4.8M 54.21
Current. Trading basically flat, holding support at 32 as volume rises further above average. That can indicate it is gaining some buyers here, but it is going to have to show the move back up & counteract a couple of sessions of distribution.
LRCX 10/18 Test BO 52.60 -0.06 49.75 57.45 4.9M 5.7M 54.78
Current.
LSI 11/27 Cup hdl 10.66 +0.09 10.96 13.22 3.8M 7.7M 10.44
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle, still set to make the breakout.
Just time to sit back and let it show the move.
MA 11/11 Test BO 101.75 +2.55 94.25 104.95 4.1M 3M 100.75
Current. Tested lower once more near the 18 day EMA and then
rebounded to post a nice gain. Good test, good recovery,
ready to charge ahead once more into the holiday season.
MRVC 11/14 Cup hdl 3.68 +0.13 3.55 4.57 2.5M 1.9M 3.44
Current. Volume surged and so did price as MRVC posted a nice
move, clearing the 5 week range that acted as the consolidation
of the late October break higher.
MTW 11/02 Test BO 60.24 +0.32 55.50 66.48 819K 1.3M 56.45
Current. Modest move on lower average volume as MTW continues
its move up the 10 day EMA after the nice breakout.
NDAQ 11/28 Test BO 40.15 +0.76 40.95 48.95 3.1M 3M 38.82
Buy Not Hit. Excellent action at the 10 day EMA, testing the strong
break higher last week and ready for the next move higher.
NUVO 11/20 DB hdl 19.20 -0.43 19.75 23.98 415K 500K 18.89
Buy Not Hit. Looked ready to continue the solid Wed move but reversed
and closed lower. Volume was back below average, but
don't like the indecision at a critical juncture. Has
to prove something to us even more now with a new move.
NVEC 11/11 Test BO 39.45 -0.53 42.75 51.95 390K 1.1M 40.95
Current. Trying to hang on near support at 40ish. Key point
for it to hold as it has set up a short double top
from late October highs and the high hit last week.
NVEC 10/14 Test 50 39.45 -0.53 33.75 40.00 390K 580K 42.45
Current.
NVLS 11/13 Cup hdl 31.22 -0.33 31.12 37.25 5.7M 3.9M 31.54
Current. Holding the 18 day EMA as volume jumps above average.
Good position to bounce. Now it needs to show us the move.
NYX 11/02 Cup hdl 100.10 +4.35 77.10 87.95 5.2M 2.4M 105.65
Current. Held the 18 day EMA and rebounded Thursday off that
suport as well as price support from mid-November before
the last surge higher. Good point to rebound and it
needs to continue the Thursday move.
OII 11/27 Cup hdl 43.61 +0.64 42.32 50.94 822K 1.7M 39.98
Buy Not Issued. Not much volume as it continues higher. Perhaps a test
will set up a higher volume move.
OMCL 11/21 Test 50 18.80 +0.02 19.69 23.65 321K 325K 18.31
Buy Not Hit. Volume faded slightly but remained above average as
OMCL tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded
to close flat. Still looks good but has yet to deliver
off this support.
PFWD 11/08 Test BO 14.95 +0.02 15.03 17.94 228K 252K 14.89
Current. Still a good test of the 18 day EMA after dumping lower
last week following a breakout run. Nice hold and setting
up to move again.
QLGC 11/28 Test BO 22.25 +0.03 22.45 26.95 2.1M 2.7M 21.44
Buy Not Issued.
QLGC 10/30 Test BO 22.25 +0.03 20.65 24.65 2.1M 3M 21.78
Current. Holding up at the 10 day EMA, putting in a higher low after bouncing off the 18 day EMA Tuesday. Set up well and we will wait and see if it can deliver.
SAY 11/13 Cup hdl 23.35 -0.02 23.11 27.72 636K 1.1M 22.68
Current. Gapped higher but no volume and faded back to flat
on the close. Very volatile the past week, and it is
important it holds near 23 and continues the breakout move.
SINA 11/21 Test BO 28.24 -0.02 28.89 33.88 648K 950K 27.45
Buy Not Issued. Very quiet action at the 18 day EMA as SINA quietly
continues setting up for its breakout.
SMSC 11/18 Test BO 31.87 -0.07 32.63 37.95 237K 450K 31.35
Current.
SMSC 10/03 Cup hdl 31.87 -0.07 29.21 34.75 237K 504K 31.89
Current. Still holding the 18 day EMA and support near 32. Volume
moved up toward average, and we are looking for that
to send it higher once more. Nice pattern, just waiting
for it to really deliver a breakaway move.
SMSC 09/16 Cup hdl 31.87 -0.07 30.05 34.75 237K 504K 31.89
Current.
SMTL 11/29 Cup hdl 13.73 -0.06 14.09 16.95 182K 200K 13.54
Buy Not Hit. Volume moved up above average as SMTL showed another
doji at the 10 day. Increasing volume at support often
signals a breakout is coming.
TSRA 11/08 FlyPlat 37.87 -0.08 38.62 45.95 609K 1M 36.45
Buy Not Issued. Working laterally the past tnree weeks, bumping resistance
at 38. Like how it has held up and moved the buy point
to let it make the breakout from this range.
TYL 11/15 Test 50 14.45 -0.12 14.52 17.48 314K 265K 13.65
Buy Not Issued. Faded back from the Wed move on lower but still above
avg volume. Continues building toward the next breakout.
UCTT 11/08 FlyPlat 13.33 +0.15 13.88 16.95 340K 600K 13.31
Current. Hanging on at some support at 13. Critical point to recover from the struggles to start the week.
VCLK 11/01 Rev HS 24.87 +0.30 19.86 23.98 16M 2.4M 23.88
Current. Huge volume and another move higher as VCLK continues
to add to the breakout with strong surges.
XTO 11/28 Rev HS 50.60 +0.31 49.44 58.95 5M 6M 48.65
Current. Gapped higher, rallied to 51.24 before stalling & fading for to a modest gain. Showed a tombstone doji on the close, indicating something of a pullback to rest after the move. Not getting too bent up over this given the strength on the breakout move.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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