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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/30/2006
FIC (Fair Isaac & Co.--$41.62; +0.42; optionable): Analytic and data management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A strong leader in 2004 and 2005, FIC needed a break to consolidate and reset for another big run. It is currently forming a short handle to a 12 month base following a big surge to start the month that took it off the bottom of the pattern and started working on the right side of the cup. Tried to extend the move last week but was slapped back, not ready to make the move just yet. Held near support at the 18 day EMA (41.01). Just waiting for volume to surge as it continues higher as it works on the right side of its pattern.
Volume: 692.7K Avg Volume: 768.274K
BUY POINT: $42.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$48.48 Stop=$40.95
POSITION: FIC DH - Apr. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fic.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 11/30/2006
AMAG (Advanced Magnetics--$55.72; +0.59; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amag.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AMAG broke out from a 7 month base to a new high in late October. It tested and then exploded higher in mid-November on a positive Phase-III result. It has come back the past two weeks to test, holding the 10 day EMA (53.83) on below average volume. Strong money flow is holding up as it tests. Looking for another break higher to continue the run.
Volume: 154.591K Avg Volume: 336.905K
BUY POINT: $56.35 Volume=350K Target=$66.95 Stop=$53.65
POSITION: AVM BK - Feb. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amag.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$40.15; +0.76; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Holding the 10 day EMA (39.22) as it tests its breakout from last week, setting up the continued run on the breakout. Very nice 8 month cup with handle base and breakout, and a solid test the past week. NDAQ is primed to really run and follow the money flow that is surging higher. The exchange stocks are one of the strong leading sectors and NDAQ is ready to move again.
Volume: 3.15M Avg Volume: 2.595M
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=3M Target=$48.95 Stop=$38.82
POSITION: NQD CH - Mar. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndaq.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Researching next date. Nice test of the 18 day EMA
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: Researching the next date.
HET: Researching date. Nice break higher Tuesday.
JCI: Researching date.
JCP: No split announced on 11-9-06. Researching next date.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
UNP: Researching date. Announced earnings 10-19-06
XTO
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/30/2006
DIOD (Diodes--$41.39; +1.78; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-7-05 at $37.70. Before that a 3:2 split on 11-4-03 at $24.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Ascending base. DIOD has been a bit rocky and toyed with us the last time we bought into it, but Thursday it was up on solid trade, gapping higher off a test of the 200 day SMA (39.09) as it makes a higher low in its 8 month base. It could not clear the 50 day SMA (41.98) on the move as if faded late with the rest of the market. Looking for it to blow past that point on continued strong volume to start the play as it heads toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 702.227K Avg Volume: 530.615K
BUY POINT: $42.05 Volume=550K Target=$48.75 Stop=$40.25
POSITION: DUH CH - Mar. $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMX (America Movil--$44.47; -0.09; optionable): Latin American wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Took the day off on a bit lower but still above average volume, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to close basically flat. Still primed to make the move. To recap: AMX got a bit wild to start the week, fading from a breakout attempt just over a week back. It fell to the 50 day EMA (42) but found purchase there with some strong volume as it bounced off that key support. Looks like a shakeout that has set up the breakout from its short 5 week base that consolidated the early October move out of a larger 5 month pattern. Solid leader looking for a new all-time high.
Volume: 4.275M Avg Volume: 3.883M
BUY POINT: $44.89 Volume=4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.95
POSITION: AMX BI - Feb. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 11/29/2006
DRQ (Dril-Quip--$42.33; +0.23; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drq.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Tried to extend the move as volume fell back to average after the strong Wednesday trade, but all it could show for the effort was a doji. We decided to wait and see how that resolves. Still like the pattern and on a continued move up on continued solid trade it is a buy. To recap: Strong, strong volume Wednesday as DRQ started the breakout move from its 16 week base. A strong leader in the prior energy rally, and this move Wednesday announces it is back in business to lead again.
Volume: 839.7K Avg Volume: 928.609K
BUY POINT: $42.52 Volume=925K Target=$50.88 Stop=$30.95
POSITION: DRQ CV - Mar. $42.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drq.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$22.25; +0.03; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. After the good Tuesday move QLGC has basically moved sideways, holding the 10 day EMA (22.12) as it tries to set up for the next break higher. Refusing to give up any ground; have to like that. To recap: QLGC broke out in late October, tested, and then rallied up the 10 day EMA for most of November. It rolled back the past few sessions, tapping the 18 day EMA (21.76) on the Tuesday low, rebounding to close positive on rising, above average volume. Looks like a good shakeout to test the initial breakout run, and now it looks ready to continue that run higher.
Volume: 2.127M Avg Volume: 2.57M
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=2.7M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: QLC DX - Apr. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMT (American Tower--$37.87; -0.36; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher and tried to continue the Wednesday move but could not hold the move despite strong volume. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and held, rebounding for a modest loss. Still set up nicely to make the break higher. To recap: Gapped higher Wednesday on a very strong shot of above average volume. AMT is coming off a test of the 50 day EMA (36.83) to start the week. Not a bad 6 week base formed over the 50 day EMA as it consolidates the September break higher from a larger 16 week base. Nice money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Looking to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 5.946M Avg Volume: 2.321M
BUY POINT: $38.58 Volume=3.4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: AMT DU - Apr. $37.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Play Date: 11/21/2006
SINA (Sina.com--$28.24; -0.02; optionable): Online media in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice tight test of the 18 day EMA (28.10) continues on below average volume as SINA tests the strong break higher to start the month. Money flow continues surging higher. Looking very ripe. To recap: SINA blasted higher to start November, breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. This is part of a longer three year pattern, but this last base has moved it off the bottom, indicating SINA is ready to embark upon a more interesting run higher. Nice hold of the 18 day EMA as it tested the past week, bouncing off that level Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price and we are ready to move in as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 647.706K Avg Volume: 850.512K
BUY POINT: $28.89 Volume=950K Target=$33.88 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NOQ CE - Mar. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sina.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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