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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Wednesday night play results:
AMT: Tried to continue the move on very strong trade but could not quite do it.
DRQ: Tried to extend the Wednesday move as well but could not make it stick
VPHM: Strong surge on strong volume continues
NUVO: Turned right back down from the solid Wednesday move. Don't like that action on the cusp of the breakout move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/30/2006
ALXN (Alexion Pharmaceuticals--$43.22; -0.03; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alxn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Great pattern in a good sector for the market right now. Some nice action above the 18 day EMA (42.59) as ALXN tests the early November breakout from its 8 month saucer w/handle base. Excellent base that took ALXN to a 6 year high, and this action is setting it up for the next run as volume moves above average as it works laterally over near support. Money flow remains strong. Ready to move in as it continues higher on volume off of this test.
Volume: 822.606K Avg Volume: 567.102K
BUY POINT: $43.75 Volume=800K Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.15
POSITION: XQN BH - Feb. $40c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/alxn.html
Play Date: 11/30/2006
LVLT (Level 3 Communications--$5.34; +0.29; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lvlt.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. LVLT borke out from a 6 month cup with handle base in mid-October but could not hold the break. It came back the past 6 weeks and managed to hold some support at 5 to start the week. Strong volume Tuesday and Thursday as LVLT showed solid upside moves. Money flow is strong, running higher ahead of price. If volume stays up we are ready to enter as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 57.59M Avg Volume: 36M
BUY POINT: $5.55 Volume=38M Target=$7.74 Stop=$5.17
POSITION: QHN CA - Mar. $5c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lvlt.html
Play Date: 11/30/2006
SKX (Skechers USA--$29.50; +1.19; optionable): Apparel (shoes mainly)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skx.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Solid volume Thursday as SKX came back off a test of the tops of the base at 28. Solid break higher in late October, gapping out of its 6 month cup with handle base. It has tested and mostly filled the gap higher after moving to a new 5 year high. It held and is starting to bounce, following some strong money flow. Looked at it earlier and after this last shakeout it now looks ready to make its move.
Volume: 502.7K Avg Volume: 413.274K
BUY POINT: $29.75 Volume=450K Target=$35.45 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: SKX DF - Apr. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/skx.html
Ready to move:
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMT (American Tower--$37.87; -0.36; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher and tried to continue the Wednesday move but could not hold the move despite strong volume. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and held, rebounding for a modest loss. Still set up nicely to make the break higher. To recap: Gapped higher Wednesday on a very strong shot of above average volume. AMT is coming off a test of the 50 day EMA (36.83) to start the week. Not a bad 6 week base formed over the 50 day EMA as it consolidates the September break higher from a larger 16 week base. Nice money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Looking to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 5.946M Avg Volume: 2.321M
BUY POINT: $38.58 Volume=3.4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: AMT DU - Apr. $37.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amt.html
Play Date: 11/21/2006
SINA (Sina.com--$28.24; -0.02; optionable): Online media in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice tight test of the 18 day EMA (28.10) continues on below average volume as SINA tests the strong break higher to start the month. Money flow continues surging higher. Looking very ripe. To recap: SINA blasted higher to start November, breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. This is part of a longer three year pattern, but this last base has moved it off the bottom, indicating SINA is ready to embark upon a more interesting run higher. Nice hold of the 18 day EMA as it tested the past week, bouncing off that level Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price and we are ready to move in as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 647.706K Avg Volume: 850.512K
BUY POINT: $28.89 Volume=950K Target=$33.88 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NOQ CE - Mar. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sina.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Volume is up this week as it unsuccessfully tries to get through 93. Some distribution ongoing and we need to watch option plays if it starts to sell.
AKAM: Holding up well.
CELG: Ditto. Took a day off.
GME: Nice action, rising on rising volume.
GOOG: Kind of hard to read right now as it fell back from the lat run and is holding just below the 18 day EMA but above support at 475.
ISE: Solid. Really looks ready to make its next move higher.
MA: Nice recovery off another intraday test of the 18 day EMA.
MRVL: Still working laterally along the 10 day EMA on below average volume.
WEBX: Bounced off the 200 day SMA after the Monday dump to that level, but looks to be running out of gas at the 10 day EMA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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