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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Thursday night plays:
ALXN: Still in the nice test of the breakout move, holding the 18 day EMA.
AMAG: Excellent break higher on strong volume.
ISE: Volume was up but ISE could not make headway. Still holding above the 18 day EMA.
NDAQ: Nope. Gapped lower on a downgrade.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/02/2006
GD (General Dynamics--$74.81; -0.03; optionable): Aerospace/defense.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Excellent set up for a break higher and run toward 100 again. Solid breakout and run in September to mid-October, and now a nice 7 week base has formed to set GD for the next move higher. Solid volume off the 50 day EMA (72.51) last week and a lower volume pause to end the week. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the price and looking to move in as GD makes the next break higher. Good sector as the market works through a potential pullback. Looking generally for a dynamic move.
Volume: 1.024M Avg Volume: 1.519M
BUY POINT: $75.28 Volume=2M Target=$85.95 Stop=$73.65
POSITION: GD EO - May $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gd.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
HOLX (Hologic--$49.03; -1.00; optionable): Diagnostic medical imaging systems for women (mammograms)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a big 2005 move HOLX needed a break and it fell into the current 8 month base. It is now setting for the next break higher. Got a bit rough in November, falling out of the handle but then getting right back into the saddle. Last week it bounced up to the top of the handle and some resistance at 50, fading Friday to test near support at the 10 day EMA. Money flow continues moving higher ahead of price. After this pullback to test near support we are looking for HOLX to deliver a new breakout and start its next run higher.
Volume: 619.792K Avg Volume: 1.054M
BUY POINT: $50.44 Volume=1.5M Target=$60.45 Stop=$47.72
POSITION: QHX CJ - Mar. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/holx.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
TIE (Titanium Metals--$31.45; -0.52; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
STATUS: Cup. Strong surge in 2005 and into May 2006. That was all that was in the tank and it fell into its split that month. Took 7 months, but it has bottomed and now TIE is working higher, ready to form the right side of its base. Nice base, slowly taking out resistance. It took out the 50 and 200 day SMA (28.90, 28.65) and came back to test them in November. It ended last week bouncing off those levels on strong volume. Took a breather Friday, but on lower volume, setting up for the further move. We are ready to move in when it does that and tie on a big gain.
Volume: 4.036M Avg Volume: 3.621M
BUY POINT: $32.45 Volume=4.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: TIE CF - Mar. $30c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tie.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
WNR (Western Refining--$28.87; +0.55; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A New issue in January, WNR just broke out of its second base of its life, a four month cup with handle pattern. Solid breakout to end November, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA Friday on the low and then moving back up. The new leader in its sector. Looking to move into positions as it continues the breakout. Then we will add to positions on the first test. Love these new issues breakout of solid bases; a rather refined type of play.
Volume: 490.4K Avg Volume: 680.484K
BUY POINT: $29.12 Volume=685K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: WNR CF - Mar. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wnr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/02/2006
BER (W.R. Berkley--$35.21; +0.10; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After trying to form a 6 month cup with handle base, BER broke down, dumping through the 200 day SMA (35.88) last Monday on a strong surge of volume. After that dump lower it rebounded but on low volume, showing a doji Friday just below the 10 day EMA (35.35). That indicates the rebound is running out of gas. Money flow is diving lower even as the price rebounded. Looking for BER to turn back over and start back down. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain, and we can bear that.
Volume: 854.6K Avg Volume: 784.6K
BUY POINT: $35.04 Volume=865K Target=$33.50 Stop=$35.41
POSITION: BER MG - Jan. $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ber.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$122.05; -0.23; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. This is the Dow's tracking ETF, and with the struggles DJ30 is showing the past month, particularly the churning Thursday and Friday as it makes a higher low below the November high, it looks ripe for a move lower to the 50 day EMA (120.09). Basically all the reasons in the summary apply to why this play is appealing. We don't want to look for too much of a fall, but a move to the target lands a sparking 44%ish gain.
Volume: 14.517M Avg Volume: 7.65M
BUY POINT: $121.92 Volume=8M Target=$120.00 Stop=$122.21
POSITION: DAW MR - Jan. $122p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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