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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/02/2006
ANST (Ansoft--$26.64; -1.00; optionable): Electronic design automation software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
STATUS: Cup. Nice surge last week, showing volume unlike the market, rallying up the right side of a short 6 week base formed after ANST hit a new all-time high in mid-October. Nice stair-step higher as it broke out from a 4 month pattern in August that set up this run. Friday it was sold off but volume faded back to average as it tapped the 10 day EMA (26.21) on the low and bounced modestly. Going to be patient and wait for this test to complete; might form a handle here to this base. When it starts back up on volume we will move into this market leader.
Volume: 259.006K Avg Volume: 266.777K
BUY POINT: $30.05 Volume=400K Target=$35.97 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: UZD DE - Apr. $25c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
GD (General Dynamics--$74.81; -0.03; optionable): Aerospace/defense.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Excellent set up for a break higher and run toward 100 again. Solid breakout and run in September to mid-October, and now a nice 7 week base has formed to set GD for the next move higher. Solid volume off the 50 day EMA (72.51) last week and a lower volume pause to end the week. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the price and looking to move in as GD makes the next break higher. Good sector as the market works through a potential pullback. Looking generally for a dynamic move.
Volume: 1.024M Avg Volume: 1.519M
BUY POINT: $75.28 Volume=2M Target=$85.95 Stop=$73.65
POSITION: GD EO - May $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
HOLX (Hologic--$49.03; -1.00; optionable): Diagnostic medical imaging systems for women (mammograms)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a big 2005 move HOLX needed a break and it fell into the current 8 month base. It is now setting for the next break higher. Got a bit rough in November, falling out of the handle but then getting right back into the saddle. Last week it bounced up to the top of the handle and some resistance at 50, fading Friday to test near support at the 10 day EMA. Money flow continues moving higher ahead of price. After this pullback to test near support we are looking for HOLX to deliver a new breakout and start its next run higher.
Volume: 619.792K Avg Volume: 1.054M
BUY POINT: $50.44 Volume=1.5M Target=$60.45 Stop=$47.72
POSITION: QHX CJ - Mar. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$36.94; +0.55; optionable): Inpatient behavioral health care services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. PSYS spent the last two days of the week rallying on stronger, average volume as the stock jumped higher, starting the breakout move from its 11 week base. Nice base on base pattern, forming the new base after a strong September break higher. Excellent action and we are looking to take positions on a further move and then on the test of this breakout. Solid leader taking up the reins. Good sector for that market; kind of a reverse psychology play.
Volume: 693.252K Avg Volume: 819.258K
BUY POINT: $35.21 Volume=1M Target=$40.89 Stop=$35.54
POSITION: BYU CG - Mar. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
TIE (Titanium Metals--$31.45; -0.52; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
STATUS: Cup. Strong surge in 2005 and into May 2006. That was all that was in the tank and it fell into its split that month. Took 7 months, but it has bottomed and now TIE is working higher, ready to form the right side of its base. Nice base, slowly taking out resistance. It took out the 50 and 200 day SMA (28.90, 28.65) and came back to test them in November. It ended last week bouncing off those levels on strong volume. Took a breather Friday, but on lower volume, setting up for the further move. We are ready to move in when it does that and tie on a big gain.
Volume: 4.036M Avg Volume: 3.621M
BUY POINT: $32.45 Volume=4.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: TIE CF - Mar. $30c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
Downside Plays:
Play Date: 12/02/2006
BER (W.R. Berkley--$35.21; +0.10; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After trying to form a 6 month cup with handle base, BER broke down, dumping through the 200 day SMA (35.88) last Monday on a strong surge of volume. After that dump lower it rebounded but on low volume, showing a doji Friday just below the 10 day EMA (35.35). That indicates the rebound is running out of gas. Money flow is diving lower even as the price rebounded. Looking for BER to turn back over and start back down. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain, and we can bear that.
Volume: 854.6K Avg Volume: 784.6K
BUY POINT: $35.04 Volume=865K Target=$33.50 Stop=$35.41
POSITION: BER MG - Jan. $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ber.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$122.05; -0.23; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. This is the Dow's tracking ETF, and with the struggles DJ30 is showing the past month, particularly the churning Thursday and Friday as it makes a higher low below the November high, it looks ripe for a move lower to the 50 day EMA (120.09). Basically all the reasons in the summary apply to why this play is appealing. We don't want to look for too much of a fall, but a move to the target lands a sparking 44%ish gain.
Volume: 14.517M Avg Volume: 7.65M
BUY POINT: $121.92 Volume=8M Target=$120.00 Stop=$122.21
POSITION: DAW MR - Jan. $122p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dia.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: 2-9-07
DIOD: Tentatively set 2-5-07
HET: Forecast 1-18-07
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07. Looking to see if JCP can give us a move off the 50 day EMA.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/30/2006
DIOD (Diodes--$41.09; -0.30; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-7-05 at $37.70. Before that a 3:2 split on 11-4-03 at $24.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Still trying to break through the short term downtrend from the September high, gapping higher Friday but unable to hold the move. It still managed a close above the 50 day EMA (40.95) where it can regroup for another breakout attempt. To recap: DIOD has been a bit rocky and toyed with us the last time we bought into it, but Thursday it was up on solid trade, gapping higher off a test of the 200 day SMA (39.09) as it makes a higher low in its 8 month base. It could not clear the 50 day SMA on the move as if faded late with the rest of the market. Looking for it to blow past that point on continued strong volume to start the play as it heads toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 379.554K Avg Volume: 530.615K
BUY POINT: $42.05 Volume=550K Target=$48.75 Stop=$40.25
POSITION: DUH CH - Mar. $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS: Still looking ready to move.
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMX (America Movil--$43.88; -0.59; optionable): Latin American wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Still working laterally just over the 18 day EMA (43.73) as volume fades to average as AMX looks for a break to a new all-time high. Holding up very well in the market. Need to see the strong volume as it breaks higher. To recap: AMX got a bit wild to start the week, fading from a breakout attempt just over a week back. It fell to the 50 day EMA (42) but found purchase there with some strong volume as it bounced off that key support. Looks like a shakeout that has set up the breakout from its short 5 week base that consolidated the early October move out of a larger 5 month pattern. Solid leader looking for a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.949M Avg Volume: 3.866M
BUY POINT: $44.89 Volume=4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.95
POSITION: AMX BI - Feb. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$22.27; +0.02; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Many are struggling but QLGC handled last week's issues rather nicely, tapping the 18 day EMA intraday Tuesday and bounce to hold the 10 day EMA (22.15) on the close. Indeed, it held that level on the close the rest of the week. It has made the next test and looks ready to continue its breakout run if it can get a bit of cooperation from the techs. To recap: QLGC broke out in late October, tested, and then rallied up the 10 day EMA for most of November. It rolled back the past few sessions, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low, rebounding to close positive on rising, above average volume. Looks like a good shakeout to test the initial breakout run, and logically it is now ready to continue that run higher.
Volume: 1.906M Avg Volume: 2.548M
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=2.7M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: QLC DX - Apr. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS: These still look solid as well.
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMT (American Tower--$37.65; -0.22; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumped up a bit much Thursday as AMT gapped higher but could not hold the move. Friday trade faded to below average as AMT reached lower below the 18 day EMA (37.48) but recovered to close at the 10 day EMA (37.65). Nice shakeout of the Wednesday gap higher, and set up well for the next breakout. Would help it if the techs could give it some support. To recap: Gapped higher Wednesday on a very strong shot of above average volume. AMT is coming off a test of the 50 day EMA (36.86) to start the week. Not a bad 6 week base formed over the 50 day EMA as it consolidates the September break higher from a larger 16 week base. Nice money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Looking to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 2.086M Avg Volume: 2.38M
BUY POINT: $38.58 Volume=3.4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: AMT DU - Apr. $37.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Play Date: 11/21/2006
SINA (Sina.com--$28.12; -0.12; optionable): Online media in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent end to the week, showing a tight doji at the 18 day EMA (28.10) on rising, above average volume. Excellent action and set to move if it can get a catalyst. To recap: To recap: SINA blasted higher to start November, breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. This is part of a longer three year pattern, but this last base has moved it off the bottom, indicating SINA is ready to embark upon a more interesting run higher. Nice hold of the 18 day EMA as it tested the past week, bouncing off that level Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price and we are ready to move in as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 837.682K Avg Volume: 850.035K
BUY POINT: $28.89 Volume=950K Target=$33.88 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NOQ CE - Mar. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sina.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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