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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Strong plays:
1) CENX: Making a strong move on strong volume.
2) WNR: Tested its breakout and looking for more.
3) BER: Low volume test of the collapse below the 200 day SMA.
4) ALXN: Still set to move higher off this test.
5) ISE: Still testing and still set to make the higher low.
6) SINA: Excellent test is locked and loaded.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 12/02/2006
ANST (Ansoft--$26.64; -1.00; optionable): Electronic design automation software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
STATUS: Cup. Nice surge last week, showing volume unlike the market, rallying up the right side of a short 6 week base formed after ANST hit a new all-time high in mid-October. Nice stair-step higher as it broke out from a 4 month pattern in August that set up this run. Friday it was sold off but volume faded back to average as it tapped the 10 day EMA (26.21) on the low and bounced modestly. Going to be patient and wait for this test to complete; might form a handle here to this base. When it starts back up on volume we will move into this market leader.
Volume: 259.006K Avg Volume: 266.777K
BUY POINT: $30.05 Volume=400K Target=$35.97 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: UZD DE - Apr. $25c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/anst.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
CENX (Century Aluminum Co.--$43.82; +1.15; optionable): Aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cenx.html
STATUS: Cup. On a tear to end the week, CENX garnered some strong volume Thursday and Friday, and unlike other volume in the market, it was upside as it cleared some resistance in its 7 month base. Excellent action, and we simply want to get on the momentum as it moves higher and then pick up more when it makes the test of this move.
Volume: 1.08M Avg Volume: 714.681K
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=750K Target=$52.95 Stop=$41.45
POSITION: CQL CH - Mar. $40c (74 delta) or CQL CI - Mar. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cenx.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$49.98; +0.03; optionable): Light base products for medical and cosmetic treatments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PMTI came back to the 18 day EMA (49.47) last week, testing a strong late October to mid-November run as it broke out from a 16 week base. Solid price/volume action on the move up to a new 8 year high, and this is a nice, low volume test of near support. Good sector for this market and a great pattern from a market leader that sports excellent fundamentals growth to go along with the pattern. Going to let it show us a break higher from here on a return of volume to enter the play.
Volume: 207.896K Avg Volume: 394.006K
BUY POINT: $50.65 Volume=585K Target=$60.85 Stop=$48.75
POSITION: KHQ EG - May $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pmti.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
WNR (Western Refining--$28.87; +0.55; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A New issue in January, WNR just broke out of its second base of its life, a four month cup with handle pattern. Solid breakout to end November, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA Friday on the low and then moving back up. The new leader in its sector. Looking to move into positions as it continues the breakout. Then we will add to positions on the first test. Love these new issues breakout of solid bases; a rather refined type of play.
Volume: 490.4K Avg Volume: 680.484K
BUY POINT: $29.12 Volume=685K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: WNR CF - Mar. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wnr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/02/2006
BER (W.R. Berkley--$35.21; +0.10; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After trying to form a 6 month cup with handle base, BER broke down, dumping through the 200 day SMA (35.88) last Monday on a strong surge of volume. After that dump lower it rebounded but on low volume, showing a doji Friday just below the 10 day EMA (35.35). That indicates the rebound is running out of gas. Money flow is diving lower even as the price rebounded. Looking for BER to turn back over and start back down. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain, and we can bear that.
Volume: 854.6K Avg Volume: 784.6K
BUY POINT: $35.04 Volume=865K Target=$33.50 Stop=$35.41
POSITION: BER MG - Jan. $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ber.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$122.05; -0.23; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. This is the Dow's tracking ETF, and with the struggles DJ30 is showing the past month, particularly the churning Thursday and Friday as it makes a higher low below the November high, it looks ripe for a move lower to the 50 day EMA (120.09). Basically all the reasons in the summary apply to why this play is appealing. We don't want to look for too much of a fall, but a move to the target lands a sparking 44%ish gain.
Volume: 14.517M Avg Volume: 7.65M
BUY POINT: $121.92 Volume=8M Target=$120.00 Stop=$122.21
POSITION: DAW MR - Jan. $122p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/27/2006
ALXN (Alexion Pharmaceuticals--$42.93; -0.29; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alxn.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still in the excellent 18 day EMA test, holding that level to end the week on some low volume. Set up beautifully to rally to a new all-time high. To recap: ALXN is making the second test of its early November breakout from an 8 month shallow cup with handle base. Solid volume as it surged higher this month, and then a very low volume test the past week. It tapped the 18 day EMA on the low all week, holding that key near support. Money flow remains strong as it makes the test and filled the gap higher just over a week back. Solid action in this market, and expecting it to hold this level and then rebound to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 454.759K Avg Volume: 563.695K
BUY POINT: $43.75 Volume=800K Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.15
POSITION: XQN BH - Feb. $40c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alxn.html
Play Date: 11/29/2006
AMX (America Movil--$43.88; -0.59; optionable): Latin American wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Still working laterally just over the 18 day EMA (43.73) as volume fades to average as AMX looks for a break to a new all-time high. Holding up very well in the market. Need to see the strong volume as it breaks higher. To recap: AMX got a bit wild to start the week, fading from a breakout attempt just over a week back. It fell to the 50 day EMA (42) but found purchase there with some strong volume as it bounced off that key support. Looks like a shakeout that has set up the breakout from its short 5 week base that consolidated the early October move out of a larger 5 month pattern. Solid leader looking for a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.949M Avg Volume: 3.866M
BUY POINT: $44.89 Volume=4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.95
POSITION: AMX BI - Feb. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 11/30/2006
CELG (Celgene--$56.27; +0.54; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Trying to garner some more volume as it bounces off the 18 day EMA (54.51) as CELG took a short breather from its October breakout from a nice 16 week base. This is the first real test of that breakout and thus a good point to move in. Looking for that volume to improve as it continues higher.
Volume: 3.513M Avg Volume: 4.155M
BUY POINT: $56.45 Volume=4.4M Target=$64.85 Stop=$54.05
POSITION: LQH DK - Apr. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/celg.html
Play Date: 11/30/2006
ISE (International Securities Exchange--$52.36; -0.82; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ise.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding near the 10 and 18 day EMA (52.56, 51.88) as ISE ended the week on a down note. This is just more work completing the test of the solid mid-November run higher off the 50 day EMA (49.58). Solid, holding its own, and still set to make the move.
Volume: 912.7K Avg Volume: 810.091K
BUY POINT: $53.75 Volume=1M Target=$63.45 Stop=$51.65
POSITION: ISE DK - Apr. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ise.html
Play Date: 11/27/2006
LSI (LSI Logic--$10.56; -0.10; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the handle, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding for a modest loss. More good shakeout action in its 8 month base. It is set up to make the breakout move and it is logical for it to do so.
Volume: 5.658M Avg Volume: 5.156M
BUY POINT: $10.96 Volume=7.7M Target=$13.22 Stop=$10.44
POSITION: LSI DB - Apr. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lsi.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$22.27; +0.02; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Many are struggling but QLGC handled last week's issues rather nicely, tapping the 18 day EMA intraday Tuesday and bounce to hold the 10 day EMA (22.15) on the close. Indeed, it held that level on the close the rest of the week. It has made the next test and looks ready to continue its breakout run if it can get a bit of cooperation from the techs. To recap: QLGC broke out in late October, tested, and then rallied up the 10 day EMA for most of November. It rolled back the past few sessions, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low, rebounding to close positive on rising, above average volume. Looks like a good shakeout to test the initial breakout run, and logically it is now ready to continue that run higher.
Volume: 1.906M Avg Volume: 2.548M
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=2.7M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: QLC DX - Apr. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qlgc.html
Play Date: 11/21/2006
SINA (Sina.com--$28.12; -0.12; optionable): Online media in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent end to the week, showing a tight doji at the 18 day EMA (28.10) on rising, above average volume. Excellent action and set to move if it can get a catalyst. To recap: To recap: SINA blasted higher to start November, breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. This is part of a longer three year pattern, but this last base has moved it off the bottom, indicating SINA is ready to embark upon a more interesting run higher. Nice hold of the 18 day EMA as it tested the past week, bouncing off that level Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price and we are ready to move in as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 837.682K Avg Volume: 850.035K
BUY POINT: $28.89 Volume=950K Target=$33.88 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: NOQ CE - Mar. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sina.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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