us stock market, stock split

Begin Part 2 of 3

THE PLAYS: Some super moves from our Market Favorites!

BONUS PLAYS:

TIBX (Tibco Software--$15.83; +1.10; optionable): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tibx.html
STATUS: Deep in its base (former highs near 150), forming a cup with handle since June. TIBX has shown nice accumulation in the right side of the pattern, and pulled into a decent handle over the last couple of weeks, holding support over its 18 day MVA (14.44). Today it made a solid move with the market, breaking out on solid volume of 2.42 million (average 1.7 million). The highs in the left side are at 16.80, and we are targeting 18.50.
BUY POINT: A buy up to 16.38 on continued strong volume. Stop: 14.72-15.23 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $12.50 calls to buy (PAV BV).

IDPH (Idec Pharmaceuticals--$63.94; -4.21; optionable): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idph.html
STATUS: IDPH had pulled into a wedging handle to 7-month cup (with a double bottom configuration), but it has dipped hard the last few sessions. Today it took a big drop, moving through the 50 day MVA (65.86) and the recent handle lows at 65. Volume shot way up to 7.82 million (average 3.02 million), and it looks like it is going to keep dropping. We could see a test back up toward the 50 day, but we would look for that to fail and for the stock to drop back from there, giving us a put play. Target: The 200 day, at 57.17 (watching possible support from the pattern center at 60).
BUY POINT: From here: Below 63 on continued strong volume. Test: After a test of the 50 day, a drop back through 64 on strong volume.
POSITION: February $75 puts to buy (IHD NO).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: None this week.

BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below as best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Pre-Announcements FDC and NDN; Pre-Split LIZ; and Continuing Candidates TJX, BBBY and GTK.

MARKET FAVORITES BEST PLAYS: Beautiful moves from ARBA, NTAP, ITWO, CREE and TLGD!
1) SEBL - Broke the 200 day with a strong move
2) DCLK - Preparing to breakout
3) INTC - Nice breakout

SEBL (Siebel--$31.55; +2.30; optionable): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: Made a huge move in mid-December on good comments. Since that time it has held up pretty well, maintaining the support of its November highs and the 10 day MVA (28.71). After consolidating on low volume, SEBL blasted back up today, taking out the 200 day MVA (31.12) and the December high (stopped just short of the 200 day). Volume was very strong at 24.4 million (average 18 million), and SEBL could continue here for another strong ride. Targeting 36 initially.
BUY POINT: Over 32 on continued strong volume. Stop: 29.87 (7%). We are cautious of a gap up, and in such a scenario can wait for a test back toward the 200 day, picking up positions on a move back up.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (SGQ BF).

DCLK (Doubleclick--$12.58; +0.85; optionable): Internet software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dclk.html
STATUS: Another tech deep in its base, forming a cup since May (left-side high 16.30). DCLK broke over its 200 day MVA (10.54) in early December, making a strong move that hit 13 before pulling back. It held the 18 day (currently 11.43) on the pullback, moving along that level since in a handle. Today saw some volume come in as DCLK started back up (volume up to 2.4 million; average 2.3 million). Looking for a continued run up over the handle high, with breakout volume. 17.
BUY POINT: 13.12 on volume of 3.6 million. Stop: 12.20.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $10 calls to buy (QWE DB).

INTC (Intel--$35.52; +2.52; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intc.html
STATUS: From its low below 20 in September, INTC made a strong recovery and in November took out the high in its April-August range (near 32). December saw INTC form a handle-type consolidation that gradually dipped back on low volume, finding support at the highs of its former range (just above its 50 day MVA, 30.92). On a great day for tech in general and for chips, INTC made a big move, breaking over its pattern high (34.85, from December). The move was strong, coming on much higher volume of 91.2 million (average 48.5 million). A great move by an important stock, and we are targeting 42.
BUY POINT: A buy up to 36.60 on continued strong volume. Stop: 33-34 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $32.50 calls to buy (INQ DZ).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
1) DRI - Nice bounce up in the handle
2) GNSS - Looking to breakout
3) STU - Moving up after the test
4) AROW - Just at the breakout point
5) THQI - Weak move could set up the put
6) JCI - Volume spikes foretell a possible move

DRI (Darden Restaurants--$36.03; +1.06; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that DRI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-20-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Good action today. DRI tested its 18 day MVA (35, with the early December highs) on a gradual pullback, and today bounced back up with a nice infusion of volume (1.15 million; average 691,300). DRI made two big moves last month, and now looks ready to take off again. Looking for continued strength as DRI moves up toward the high of 37.47 and beyond. Target: 43.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 37.59 on continued strong volume (minimum 1 million. Stop: 34.96. Continued bounce: Over 36.25 on continued strong volume. Stop: 34.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (DRI DG).

GNSS (Genesis Microchip--$68.86; +1.67; optionable): Semiconductor. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnss.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that GNSS has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-20-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: GNSS is in a nice pennant, holding over the support of its 18 day MVA (65.01) as it consolidates after its very strong November-December move. It started back up from the 18 day Wednesday, and today hit our aggressive buy point (69), topping out at 70.50 before retreating a bit to close. Volume was down but remained strong at 2.89 million (average 2.48 million). Looking strong and the pattern is nice, so our next buy point is on a break over the high of 70.91. On that move, a target of 80 initially.
BUY POINT: 71.03 on above average volume. Stop: 66.06 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $65 calls to buy (QFE CM).

STU (Student Loan--$81.90; +1.55; no options): Researching a date, as due for a split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stu.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STU has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Nice start back up. STU broke over its April and August tops last week with a very solid move, and after steady drift back it settled over the support of its 10 day MVA (80.51). After three loose dojis over that level, STU jumped today, running on slightly lighter volume of 10,200 (average 11,700). The breakout high is ahead at 83.68, and we are riding positions to see how it handles that, and on a move over it we are targeting 90.
BUY POINT: From here (aggressive): Over 82.10 on increased volume. Stop: 78. Over the breakout high: 85.80 on increased volume of 15,000 or better. Stop: 79.79.
POSITION: Stock.

AROW (Arrow Financial--$30.04; +0.34; no options): Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arow.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 9-22-99 at a stock price of $26. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-09-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: AROW made a nice surge last week toward the highs in its ascending wedge, and after a brief rest over the last couple of sessions (testing near the 10 day MVA at 29.28 both days), AROW continued today with a nice move. Volume was up again at 22,000 (average 12,500), and the stock closed over the pattern highs but just under the breakout buy point. Looking for the strength to continue and carry a breakout. We are targeting 35. Strong money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: 30.22 continued strong volume (minimum 19,000). Stop: 28.10 (7%).
POSITION: Stock.

THQI (Thq Inc.--$49.59; +2.73; optionable): Software. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: THQI has shown a lot of weakness, failing last week on a test of the 50 day MVA (52.87) and then giving up the 200 day (48.82) Wednesday. We were looking for a relief bounce to set up the put play, and with the rally today THQI made its way back over the 200 day to close. Volume was what we were expecting, coming in substantially lower than on the selling Wednesday (1.27 million; average 1.53 million). Not a convincing move up and the momentum is decidedly down. Watching for a hard drop back for a put play down to 42.50 for our initial target (August low and former down trendline), and we could possibly get a drop to 40, in the range of September lows.
BUY POINT: Drop back through 47.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: February $55 puts to buy (QHI NK).

JCI (Johnson Controls--$80.99; +0.29; optionable): Auto parts. Forecast to announce a split on 1-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JCI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was 0n 1-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Little change as JCI moves laterally along its short-term MVA's (18 day at 80.31), showing another in a series of dojis over support. However, the last two days there has been a lot of volume kicking in, today down but still strong at 476,400 (average 396,500). JCI is now back in its pre-September 11 range, bouncing up to a new high of 80.70 in early December but holding in a range over its 50 day MVA (78.30). Looking for the volume to push JCI to a breakout. Good money flow. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: 82.82 on volume of 600,000. Stop: 77.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $75 calls to buy (JCI AO - low open interest).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) SYMC - Looking to breakout
2) XRAY - Ready for another pre-split surge
3) CHS - Nice handle-type consolidation on the test

SYMC (Symantec--$69.36; +2.25; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Good move today! SYMC dipped below recent support toward the end of December (the 18 day MVA, at 66.43), threatening to give up its handle to the double bottom. However, it hung on and moved back over that level last Friday, and after holding on with low volume the last couple of sessions SYMC made a move today. It took out our aggressive buy point, with volume spiking up to 2.44 million (average 2.56 million). Looking for a continued move up and over the handle high of 71. Target: 80.
PLAY: Breakout: 71.12 on volume of 3.3 million, with stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (SYQ BM - low open interest). Stop: 66.14.

XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$50.75; +1.38; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: XRAY reached as high at 52.03 (over our buy point) Monday before pulling back to close, but it has held the 10 day MVA (49.52) each of the last two sessions on its lows, showing consecutive 'hammer dojis.' Volume really picked up today (518,500; average 230,600), which makes the indication of a change in direction stronger. Looking for a bounce back up from here. Strong money flow and buying. Target: If it can take out the high, 57.
PLAY: Over 51 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI). Stop: 48.

CHS (Chico's Fas--$40.90; +0.90; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 1-19-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Broke out from a double bottom recently, hitting a high of 42 and then gently pulling back over the last week. A nice test of the move, holding well over the prior highs (39) and using the 10 day MVA (39.77) as support. CHS tried to start moves the previous two sessions, pulling back from highs shy of 42, and today managed to hold a bit of a move. A nice pattern, and we will see if we can get a breakout going toward the split. Target: 46.
PLAY: 42.12 on volume of 960,000 (average 640,000; today 417,700), with stock and/or February $40 calls to buy (CHS BH). Stop: 39.17.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) APPB - Good start to the bounce

APPB (Applebee's--$33.50; +0.39; optionable): Restaurants.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Has pulled back from the recent high of 36.89, dropping a bit harder the last couple of sessions to its 50 day MVA (33.40). Volume was rather soft with the holidays but today it kicked in (915,400; average 417,000) as the stock hit down to 32.40 intraday but then made a surge back up to close back over the 50 day. We like high-volume reversal action right on the 50 day MVA. Moreover, it is right at the level of its September high and November consolidation range, and could be in for a solid 50 day MVA bounce. Looking for a continued strong volume on a move over the short-term MVA's (18 day at 34.54). Initial target is the recent high.
BUY POINT: Over the 18 day on continued strong volume. Stop: 32.30.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (AQB BF).

POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) CBH - Hanging in the ascending wedge

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$38.90; +0.70; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Since breaking from its cup with handle pattern on a pre-split move in early June, CBH has tested the breakout several times and in the process formed something of an ascending wedge pattern. It again held the prior handle highs (at 38, with the 50 day MVA at 37.72) as it reached down Wednesday, but rebounded today on increased volume of 350,300 (average 162,000). Still looking for a strong move over the recent high of 39.60. Pretty good money flow and buying. Target on the breakout: 45.
PLAY: 39.72 on continued strong volume (minimum 350,000), with stock and/or March $37.50 calls to buy (CBH CU).

****
REMAINING PLAYS:
****
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

DIAN ($55.83; +1.08): Forecast to announce a split in 1-17-02 with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date. Took a big drop on news that torpedoed the sector, and we were looking for a bounce today to give us a better exit point for any remaining positions. It bounced today, but is up against resistance of the 18 day MVA (56.43).

DHR ($60.84; +0.54): Forecast to announce a split in late January in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm a date for earnings release; however, it has declared a quarterly dividend which could make a split announcement less likely. DHR is trying to scratch back up after taking a fall on a downgrade. It is again battling a long-term down trendline at 61.50, dropping back from that level again to close, and it could be forming the right shoulder to a head and shoulders pattern. We will see if it can hold on (has been holding the 18 day, at 60) and form up better.

SRCL ($58.92; -0.78): Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings. Continues dipping back and could be destined to meet its 50 day MVA (56.28). For calls sold on the move below the 18 day, we will look at the 50 day as support, and if it holds that would be the point to buy them back.

EDS ($64.45; -2.80): We are researching a date. Could not hold the 50 day (67.21) this time, gapping through it today and falling on huge volume today (8.5 million; average 3.1 million). The 200 day is just below at 62.22, and we will see if it can hold that level Friday. If not, we will look at a put play.

BMS ($49.68; +0.73): We are researching a date in January. After the weak breakout in early December, BMS has dipped back, holding its 50 day (48.36) but not able to sustain a move back up. Today it closed back over the 18 day (49.49), but not with convincing volume. It will need to set up a bit more.

BRL ($78.00; -1.00): Researching a split date. Was in a nice lateral pattern, but instead of breaking out BRL drifted up on light volume, and this week has dropped back to test the 18 day (77.83), closing back in the range of its lateral pattern. If it can hold, we can look at aggressive positions on a move over 80 on volume of 1 million or better (415,600 today; average 1 million), with stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (BRL BO).

MI ($62.74; +0.81): We are researching a forecast date. After four runs from the 18 day MVA (currently 62.84), MI did what is typical after that many runs, dropping back to the 50 day (61.30) Wednesday. Today it bounced, although the move was much weaker. It might need to consolidate a bit.

TRDO ($26.22; +0.32): Working on a date. Rolling up and down in the range of 26-31, but TRDO has been stymied under the 50 day (27.38, with its short-term MVA's). It has held below resistance in this pattern before, so patience is the key. Still looking for a move back over the 50 day on continued strong volume (344,800; average 314,000), with stock and/or February $25 calls to buy (UNC BE).

XL ($91.00; +0.60): Researching a date. Continues to move in a tight range, holding about its 50 day MVA (90.29) but constrained by the short-term (18 day at 91). Volume moved up today to 1.59 million (average 1.35 million), and we are watching for a possible jump out of its slumber. The break to a new high is a move over 96.50 on volume of 2.7 million, and the aggressive play is on a move over 93 on above average volume, both with stock and/or April $90 calls to buy (XL DR).

SONC ($35.15; -0.73): We are working on a date. The downward move has picked up steam, as SONC has come steadily down the last five sessions from its high of 37.65. It is currently just below its 18 day (35.30) and November high, and could be on the way to its 50 day, at 33.85.

WLP ($115.70; -1.15): Working on a date. In a large cup dating back to late December 2000 (left side high: 120), but it has fallen out of its handle consolidation, catching its 50 day MVA (114.47). It tried a move last week, but it was weak and it is dropping back. We will see if it can develop.

Plays:

NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$32.86; -1.89; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Pulling back again after an attempt to break from its handle failed on weak volume, but after some increased selling volume Wednesday, NDN found support at the 50 day, showing a loose 'shooting star' doji as volume was even higher (at 646,200; average 403,500). The 50 day has been strong support, and we are looking for a bounce here to take it back up toward its recent highs (40.10; December intraday spike up to 42). Resistance ahead is at the short-term MVA's (10 day at 38.12).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A bounce over the 10 day on continued strong volume. Stop: 36.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (NDN CG).

FDC (First Data--$77.95; +0.10; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Made a breakout last week but on low holiday volume, and it has quickly pulled back to the 18 day MVA (77.14). Showing consecutive dojis, we will see if it can produce another bounce. We could see one or two more bounces to ride with longer-term positions, with a possible new entry point on a strong bounce from here. High on the breakout was 80.20.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 79 on above average volume (1.84 million; today 1.14 million). Stop: 73.47 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (FDC BO).

End Part 2 of 3

us stock market
stock split