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stock watch, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 2
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
MOVI ($22.51; +1.41): Splits 3:2 effective 1-4-02. A big drop Wednesday back below the 50 day MVA (23.71). No move going into the split, and we are dropping.
CPRT ($36.62; +1.24): Split 3:2 effective 1-22-02. Made a nice move in December, but has pulled back over the last week. It stopped short of the 50 day (33.94), moving up a bit today but pulling back to close after hitting 37.43. Looks like it needs some more time to rest, but the aggressive can play a move over 37 with stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (KQJ BG), targeting a quick move to resistance at 39.
VAR ($68.52; -1.38): Splits 2:1 effective 1-16-02. A nice move last week, but after hitting 72 it dropped back the last two sessions, catching support today in the range of its 50 and 200 day MVA's (68.49 and 67.74). We will see if it can hold and try a bounce. The aggressive can play a move back over 69, with stock and/or stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (VAR BM - under 100 open interest).
Plays:
LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$51.10; +1.15; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 1-17-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: Gapped up on big volume. LIZ has been in a tight consolidation, nearing pre-attack levels. It hit up against the lower end of its August range twice (52, in November & early December), and we would like to see a move over that level. The high volume (1.05 million; average 492,600) on the gap up doji indicates that we could see a test back before we get a move, but it has been holding strong over the 50 day (49.15), recently holding the short-term MVA's (50.07).
PLAY: 52.12, with stock and/or April $50 calls to buy (LIZ DJ).
PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
FIC ($47.71; -14.24): Had been very strong, then an odd report indicating that FIC made its numbers with "non-core" revenue items. A crushing effect produced a free-fall. If it bounces, the 200 day is at 53.13.
Play:
LUV (Southwest Airlines--$18.91; +0.66; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luv.html
STATUS: Tested the 50 day (18.18), and off of a 'shooting star' doji Wednesday LUV made a move today, running back over recent resistance of its short-term MVA's (18.71) as volume finally showed up (4.38 million; average 2.89 million). It has been a long, steady decline in the consolidation on low volume, so we will see if it can make a strong move from here. Recent highs at 20. Looks ready.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 19.10 from here, looking for continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $17.50 calls to buy (LUV CW).
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
AZO ($65.45; -4.55): Auto parts are showing a lot of weakness now, and AZO, after giving up recent support at the 18 day MVA (71.52), dropped very hard today to close below its 50 day (67.26). Volume was way up to 2.6 million (average 1.42 million), so this drop might not be over. After a test of the 50 day, on a drop back through 65 we can look at February $75 (AZO NO) puts to buy, targeting 60 initially. For our remaining stock positions, if it cannot recover over the 50 day MVA, we are exiting.
ACS ($102.98; -2.25): We rode positions as ACS kept drifting upward, and sold calls on the drop back, holding onto stock. Volume is up on the drop, but it held to close over the 18 day (101.94) today. This is the first level of support we were looking at, so we will use care with calls sold and buy them back on a bounce higher. It if falls further it can land at the November high of 97.45.
FLIR ($41.14; +3.24): FLIR bounced higher today, but the volume, although increased, was still much lighter than we have seen on recent selling (292,900, average 375,200), and FLIR could not clear the resistance of the 50 day (41.16). Still looking for this move to fail, and on a drop through 39 on volume of 400,000 or better we will consider February $45 puts to buy (FFQ NI) for an aggressive play.
SLM ($80.00; -2.29): Head and shoulders with a weak right shoulder. Sold back hard Wednesday after a test of the 50 day (83.52), and today it continued down, dropping hard on big volume (up to 1.55 million, average 568,100) through the recent lows and testing 78.99 before pulling up to close - a nice move for put positions taken last week (for those with the fortitude to hold them through the test). Not much room left until the target of the 200 day (77.56).
STJ ($74.29; -0.70): Low volume breakout (high 78.07) led to this test back to the 50 day (73.52). Volume was up and strong today (818,800, average 681,800) as it tapped the 50 day. If it holds, the aggressive can play a move over the 10 day on increased, above average volume with stock and/or April $70 calls to buy (STJ DN).
THC ($60.00; +0.60): Made several weak attempts to clear the convergence of the short-term and 50 day MVA's (58.78), but could not break through so we were watching for a put play. However volume picked up considerably this week, boosting THC up and over that resistance - so no put play, but it isn't setting up a strong upside play either - closing today with a higher volume "hanging man" doji that typically signals drop back. We will see if it can set up.
Plays:
BBY (Best Buy--$72.90; +0.90; optionable): We are researching a date. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-99 with a board meeting. The stock price was $95. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 4-24-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $71. The annual shareholder meeting was 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: BBY made a nice bounce up from 65 on positive earnings, and after hitting 74.92 it pulled back and began gradually drifting up the 10 day MVA (72.68) on below average volume. BBY sold back to the 18 day (71.68) on stronger volume Wednesday. It made a small push up from that level today as volume held steady at 3.17 million (average 3.32 million). We are looking for increased volume to carry a move up over the recent highs - but it may need to rest at support first.
BUY POINT: 75.12 on volume of 4 million. Stop: 69.79 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (BBY CN).
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$33.68; +0.29; optionable): Forecast to announce a split during the market hours on 12-20-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-13-00 with a board meeting. The stock price of $39. The shareholder meeting was on 6-28-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Tried to make a move up on the recent breakout high (35.70), but low volume and resistance at the long-term uptrend line at 34 hindered the moves. BBBY dropped back Monday and is now holding support at the 10 day MVA (33.38). Despite a test through that level Wednesday, the stock is showing something of an ascending wedge pattern, so we will see if today's doji over support presages a solid move back up over the recent high. Target: 41.
BUY POINT: Over 35.70 on above average volume (down slightly today to 2.79 million, average 3.78 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (BHQ BF).
EASI (Engineered Support--$33.85; +0.06; optionable): Aerospace/Defense.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
BACKGROUND: EASI last announced a 5:4 split on 2-1-2001 with a board meeting at a price of $28.50. Before that it announced on 6-12-98 at a price of $26.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Little change today. EASI made a steady push back up from our put target of 30, but volume has been quite low and it could be setting up another play. It is running into resistance at 35 (10 day MVA at 34.16), showing a series of dojis under that level, and closing below the 10 day Wednesday and again today as it continues in its downtrend. It has hit our entry point for new plays, but volume has not been there. Still looking for the strong drop back to play down to 30.
BUY POINT: On a move through 33.11 on average or better volume (up slightly today to 157,400, average 407,500).
POSITION: February $40 puts to buy (UFE NH).
GTK (Gtech Holdings--$43.60; -0.77; optionable): We are researching a date. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtk.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that GTK has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-9-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After its recent bounce from the 50 day (then 42, now 43) GTK has had trouble at 46, failing there on each of its last two moves. GTK dropped back below its most recent low today, catching support again at the 50 day MVA (43.12). It has now formed a pennant pattern, a pattern that can break either way. It is at the 50 day and a good stock should bounce from there. The aggressive can play a solid bounce back up, but the real test is the 46 level and the high of 47.49 (early December).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over the 10 day MVA (44.72) on increased, above average volume. Stop: 41.85.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $40 calls to buy.
IGT (International Game Technology--$66.82; -1.83; optionable): Merger with SLOT approved on Friday the 14th.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that IGT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Breakout test threatening to fail. After gapping up and reversing on high volume last Friday, it looked like IGT had found support at the 10 day with a 'hammer' doji Wednesday. However, it continued down today on continued strong volume (down today to 1.49 million, average 1.22 million). If it can hold we could still see a couple of more bounces up before we see a test of the 50 day (62), but we are watching existing positions very carefully here for a further drop.
BUY POINT: After holding here, a move over 69.50 on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $65 calls to buy (IGT DM).
TJX (TJX Companies--$38.99; -0.64; optionable): We are researching a date. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced split on 4-8-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After making a weak move up to Monday's high of 40.60, TJX has pulled back to support at the 10 day MVA (38.95) and over the former December highs at 39. Volume tapered off today to 1.31 million (average 1.26 million), so we will see if it can hold here and after it proves itself, we will look for increased volume to carry a move back up over the recent high. Has been strong.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 40 on increased, above average volume. Stop: 38. Move to a new high: 40.73 on minimum volume of 1.70 million. Stop: 39.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (TJX DG).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
CACI ($39.47; -0.93): Split 2:1 effective 12-7-01. Dropped back as expected, and is currently holding the 18 day at 39.48. Volume was quite strong on the initial drop Monday, but it has steadied since then. We want to see support continue to hold for current positions (watching for a breach of the 18 day to trigger an exit). For new positions we are still looking for a move over 43.32 on volume of 600,000 or better, with stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (KFQ CH).
FMBI ($29.03; +0.56): Split 5:4 effective 12-17-01. FMBI is showing some volatile price/volume action and some wild intraday ranges. Still, the stock is holding the 18 day (28.53) and the former pivot (28.20) so we continue to watch for a solid move up and out of the recent range (Thursday showed a stronger push up to the recent closing highs). Raising the aggressive buy point to 29.50 on continued strong volume (up Thursday to 157,700, average 92,800), with stock.
CHBS ($33.99; +0.48): Split 3:2 effective 12-13-01. Volume is falling but CHBS is holding 34. Still needs to settle down a bit after recovering from the recent breakout test. After a longer, stable consolidation that either holds laterally or gently drifts back to support at the 10 day (32.88) we can look at new positions on a solid move up. Riding current positions as long as support holds, and will still consider exiting on a drop through the 10 day.
FLO ($26.55; +0.45): Split 3:2 on 1-3-02. FLO just can't seem to make it back over its 50 day. Just not showing much of anything right now so we are dropping.
HRH ($28.16; +0.41): Split 2:1 effective 1-2-02. There was no more to last week's brief move. Trying to hold on tat the 50 day, with recent lows at 26.50. Dropping.
SASR ($30.10; -0.87): Split 3:2 on 12-21-01. Has now given up all of the recent post-split gains on steady, above average volume. Dropping.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
stock split
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