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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ADS; AMAG; BIDU; FMD; HET; ICE; MTW; NVLS; SAY
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/05/2006
FTO (Frontier Oil--$32.46; +0.81; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fto.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. 'THE' refining stock in 2005 and the first half of 2006, FTO was a victim of its own success. After such a strong run it needed a rest and has spent the past 8 months trying to set up the next move. It is current working on a 4 month base, trying to make the breakout as it works its way back toward a new high. Now if you look you see a potential head and shoulders during the past 8 months. With energy stocks on the comeback, however, the odds are stacking in the favor of a breakout versus a breakdown, but we will simply let the stock show us. If it gives us a breakout on strong volume that is our answer. Tuesday volume jumped above average as FTO prepared for the breakout. See; it is getting there.
Volume: 2.766M Avg Volume: 2.596M
BUY POINT: $32.78 Volume=3.2M Target=$39.45 Stop=$31.08
POSITION: FTO DF - Apr. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fto.html
Play Date: 12/05/2006
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$24.31; +1.65; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Like it. Nice quiet handle for three weeks after a year long base, then a strong break higher Tuesday on strong volume. URBN has the attributes of a solid base with strong volume as it rallied to form the right side of the pattern, low volume during the handle, and then surging on the Tuesday breakout. Seeing a bit of this in the market and that is a healthy sign. Money flow is rampaging and URBN looks locked in to follow it higher. Been awhile, but it is ready. It also has a long way to run before it hits resistance; got to like that. A former leader ready to again assume the role of a leader.
Volume: 6.426M Avg Volume: 4.01M
BUY POINT: $24.75 Volume=400K Target=$29.95 Stop=$22.98
POSITION: URQ CX - Mar. $22.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
A reverse split gone well (remember MSTR? It started the reverse split 1:10 in early 2002 and then ran from $7 to now $121):
Play Date: 12/05/2006
SVVS (Savvis Communications--$32.95; +2.45; no options): Information technology (digital content, network services, IP VPN)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svvs.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume surged as SVVS started the breakout move from its 7 month base formed roughly along the 50 day EMA (30.08). Nice pattern making a series of higher lows below a constant top at 30 to 32.50. This move is starting the breakout and we are looking at positions on the continued move and then on a successful test.
Volume: 1.375M Avg Volume: 348.203K
BUY POINT: $33.12 Volume=365K Target=$39.95 Stop=$30.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/svvs.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07
CMTL: Tentatively forecast 12-5-06
CTSH: 2-9-07
DIOD: Tentatively set 2-5-07
HET: Forecast 1-18-07
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07. Bouncing off the 50 day EMA but needs more volume.
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/05/2006
CRDN (Ceradyne--$56.17; +2.06; optionable): Ceramic armor products. Forecast 12-18-06.
BACKGROUND: Announced a 3:2 split on 12-20-04 at $53.20. Prior to that a 3:2 split on 3-11-04 at $34.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume surge Tuesday as CRDN broke higher out of the three week handle to its 9 month base. After a strong surge from 2003 through 2005 CRDN needed a break before running again, and this current base has done just that. Volume has returned en masse starting in November when the stock moved off the bottom of the pattern and started forming the right side of its base. That is exactly what you want to see as it starts up. It then dried up during the handle to below average, again just what you want to see. Then the big volume breakout, also just what you want to see. Money flow is screaming higher. CRDN looks to follow it.
Volume: 1.582M Avg Volume: 830.155K
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=845K Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: AUE CK - Mar. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS: Still looking ready to move.
Play Date: 12/02/2006
ANST (Ansoft--$27.76; -0.18; optionable): Electronic design automation software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
STATUS: Cup. Gapped higher but faded on lower, below average volume. Still set to make the move and we are ready if it moves higher from here. To recap: Nice surge last week, showing volume unlike the market, rallying up the right side of a short 6 week base formed after ANST hit a new all-time high in mid-October. Nice stair-step higher as it broke out from a 4 month pattern in August that set up this run. Friday it was sold off but volume faded back to average as it tapped the 10 day EMA (26.75) on the low and bounced modestly. Going to be patient and wait for this test to complete; might form a handle here to this base. When it starts back up on volume we will move into this market leader.
Volume: 208.015K Avg Volume: 265.173K
BUY POINT: $28.08 Volume=400K Target=$35.97 Stop=$26.42
POSITION: UZD DE - Apr. $25c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
HOLX (Hologic--$51.08; +0.34; optionable): Diagnostic medical imaging systems for women (mammograms)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Rallied but could not hold the move, closing with a doji. Still set to move but may come back some before it is moves higher. Either way w are ready to move in as we like the pattern and the accumulation. To recap: After a big 2005 move HOLX needed a break and it fell into the current 8 month base. It is now setting for the next break higher. Got a bit rough in November, falling out of the handle but then getting right back into the saddle. Last week it bounced up to the top of the handle and some resistance at 50, fading Friday to test near support at the 10 day EMA. Money flow continues moving higher ahead of price. After this pullback to test near support we are looking for HOLX to deliver a new breakout and start its next run higher.
Volume: 1.083M Avg Volume: 1.056M
BUY POINT: On a test of 50: $50.44 on the rebound. From the Tuesday close: $51.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$60.45 Stop=$47.72
POSITION: QHX CJ - Mar. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
Play Date: 12/04/2006
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$28.99; +0.55; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on lower but still above average volume. Closed well off the session high (29.24) but still in position to continue the move. If it does we are in from here. To recap: Strong volume Monday as JCOM moved off of the 50 day EMA test (27.34) in its 20 week base that is setting JCOM up for a run at a new all-time high. Money flow is leading the way and after this shakeout the past week JCOM is ready to follow it.
Volume: 639.699K Avg Volume: 453.333K
BUY POINT: From the Tuesday close: $29.12 (orig. $28.88) Volume=465K Target=$34.75 Stop=$27.32
POSITION: JQF CE - Mar. $25c (75 delta, 167 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 12/02/2006
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$37.30; -0.43; optionable): Inpatient behavioral health care services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher but could not hold the move. Good rest from three upside sessions that saw decent but just average volume. A test here to the 10 day EMA (36.29) would set up the break higher a bit better. To recap: PSYS spent the last two days of the week rallying on stronger, average volume as the stock jumped higher, starting the breakout move from its 11 week base. Nice base on base pattern, forming the new base after a strong September break higher. Excellent action and we are looking to take positions on a further move and then on the test of this breakout. Solid leader taking up the reins. Good sector for that market; kind of a reverse psychology play.
Volume: 618.423K Avg Volume: 824.658K
BUY POINT: Test 36.25 then $36.68 on the rebound (orig. $35.21) Volume=1M Target=$40.89 Stop=$35.54
POSITION: BYU CG - Mar. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
Play Date: 11/28/2006
QLGC (Qlogic--$22.55; -0.02; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Tight doji Tuesday, tapping the 10 day EMA (22.28) on the low and rebounding. Nice easy lateral move, still setting the break higher. To recap: QLGC broke out in late October, tested, and then rallied up the 10 day EMA for most of November. It rolled back the past few sessions, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low, rebounding to close positive on rising, above average volume. Looks like a good shakeout to test the initial breakout run, and logically it is now ready to continue that run higher.
Volume: 1.345M Avg Volume: 2.544M
BUY POINT: New: $22.82 (orig. $22.45) Volume=2.7M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.44
POSITION: QLC DX - Apr. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qlgc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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