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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: LVLT; NFLD; NUE; CGNX
Wednesday night play results:
BRCM: Rallied higher but then turned over to close and was down a bit more after hours on the XLNX news.
DO: Faded modestly on low volume, testing the 200 day SMA again but still solid.
NITE: Tried to extend the move but closed basically flat.
NTGR: Started the move higher but struggled late in the session with NASDAQ.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/07/2006
CLE (Claires Stores--$33.00; +0.45; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CLE is forming something of a handle to its 8 month base, fading back this week to test the 10 day EMA (32.22) on the Thursday low. It rebounded from that test on stronger volume. Looks like the test is over and CLE is ready to surge higher and follow its strong money flow.
Volume: 3.542M Avg Volume: 1.473M
BUY POINT: $33.48 Volume=2.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.78
POSITION: CLE EF - May $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cle.html
Play Date: 12/07/2006
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$11.97; -0.05; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
STATUS: Saucer w/handle. Volume has surged the past week as HLTH came off the bottom of its 5 month base after the 200 day SMA came up to tap it. It has tested back the past two days, tapping the 10 day EMA (11.87) on the Thursday low and rebounding on solid volume. Nice set up to follow the strong money flow that is moving higher ahead of price. Strong 9 to 5 accumulation shows plenty of buying (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume).
Volume: 7.644M Avg Volume: 3.976M
BUY POINT: $12.28 Volume=5M Target=$14.75 Stop=$11.78
POSITION: HUT DV - Apr. $12.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hlth.html
Play Date: 12/07/2006
JSDA (Jones Soda--$10.23; +0.29; no options): Soft drinks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jsda.html
STATUS: Double bottom. JSDA IPO'd in November 2005, rallied, reaching 11 in May. It then fell into the current 7 month base, a cup with handle. The current 7 week base is a small base within the base. Very nice action with volume surging Thursday as it starts the breakout. Nice pattern has set up the next breakout.
Volume: 369.274K Avg Volume: 219.502K
BUY POINT: $10.33 Volume=250K Target=$12.39 Stop=$9.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jsda.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/07/2006
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$19.66; -0.23; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Put. CMVT is having issues and they are not getting better. It peaked in March and tumbled lower. It rebounded and rallied back up into October where it ran into the 200 day SMA and that stopped that move up. It gapped sharply lower in mid-November on huge trade. After that it has posted a relief bounce into this month, the entire move on low volume. It reached 20 where there is price resistance, and Thursday it turned down on rising volume. Money flow has fallen ahead of price and is still in the gutter. Looks ready to fall again, and looking to move in as it does. A move to the target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 4.84M Avg Volume: 4.406M
BUY POINT: $19.54 Volume=5M Target=$18.00 Stop=$20.11
POSITION: CQV MD - Jan. $20p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cmvt.html
Play Date: 12/07/2006
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$43.70; -0.56; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqqq.html
STATUS: Put. The NASDAQ large caps made a lower high and the Q's fell through the 18 day EMA (43.87), something NASDAQ did not do. Volume jumped above average. Ready to fall and test toward the 50 day EMA (42.73). A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 124.974M Avg Volume: 111.507M
BUY POINT: $43.65 Volume=115M Target=$42.51 Stop=$43.79
POSITION: QQQ MR - Jan. $44p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qqqq.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Fell through the 18 day EMA and we sold some January $90c for $3.90. When AAPL gets to $85 we will see if it continues lower toward the 50 day EMA (82.84) or holds. When it starts to hold we will buy them back.
AKAM: Received an upgrade and broke out on big volume. New high. Nice breakout.
CELG: Suddenly struggling at the 18 day EMA, selling on strong volume. Needs to hold here.
GOOG: Struggling and looks ready to test the 50 day EMA.
NVDA: Fell through the 18 day EMA though volume did not rally. Precarious time for NVDA. Ready to sell some $35 strike calls if it slips further and then see if it holds the 50 day EMA (33.78) where we can buy them back.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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