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Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Tuesday.
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 12/11/2006
TECH (Techne--$55.13; +0.66; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Taking another look at TECH as it comes off a test of the 200 day SMA (53.62) on stronger, above average volume. This is part of a larger 9 month cup with handle base that ran into some trouble at the end of November, and fell out of that handle down to the 200 day. It held that key support, worked laterally, and then started higher Monday on that stolid volume. Solid action and steady, outside that one session in late November. Setting up for a breakout and a run to a new all-time high.
Volume: 187.122K Avg Volume: 148.998K
BUY POINT: $55.57 Volume=300K Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.55
POSITION: TGQ DK - Apr. $55c (56 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tech.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 12/11/2006
MS (Morgan Stanley--$78.77; +0.16; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
STATUS: Ascending base. MS broke out from a base in August, stumbled around, then ran well from September to October. It then started the current 8 week pattern making a couple of higher lows at the 50 day EMA (75.93). Last week it came back to test the 10 day EMA (77.98), making a higher low at that near support. That looks to have set it up for a breakout to a new 6-year high. Nice set up.
Volume: 3.203M Avg Volume: 4.125M
BUY POINT: $79.72 Volume=5M Target=$91.95 Stop=$77.54
POSITION: MS DP - Apr. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ms.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 08/21 Cup hdl 88.75 +0.49 68.12 78.00 18M 40M 88.65
Current. Modest gain, unable to clear 10 day EMA for second
session. Looks like a fading rebound attempt and another
good chance to sell calls against stock position if
not already done so.
ADS 11/27 Test 18 63.90 -0.19 63.64 72.95 371K 950K 63.54
Current. Ease back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Looking for a rebound from here.
ADS 10/26 Test BO 63.90 -0.19 61.17 69.95 371K 1.3M 63.54
Current.
AEOS 11/11 FlyPlat 47.94 +0.37 48.23 55.65 8.3M 3.2M 46.98
Current.
AKAM 11/11 DB hdl 54.38 +0.60 50.81 60.95 5.8M 7.5M 52.28
Current. Continue with the uptrend on slightly above average volume. Moving very nicely and another good push would be worth pulling some option gain into the bank on these positions.
AKAM 10/21 Test 50 54.38 +0.60 47.20 55.95 5.8M 7M 52.28
Current.
AMAG 11/30 Test BO 61.60 +0.23 56.74 67.85 377K 350K 59.95
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied back showing a tight doji on average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout. Nice action.
AMT 11/29 Asc Bse 37.71 +0.60 38.58 43.95 2.5M 3.4M 36.95
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 50 day EMA on rising volume. Hanging tough in the pattern and at key support.
AMX 11/29 Asc Bse 45.38 -0.33 45.50 53.95 3.6M 4M 43.95
Current. Pullback on below average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA. Nice lateral move over the 10 day setting up for more upside.
ANST 12/02 Cup 27.95 +0.78 28.08 35.97 209K 400K 26.42
Buy Not Issued. Nice bounce though volume lagged. If it picks up a
bit of trade on a further move it is a buy.
APH 12/06 Asc Tri 66.69 -1.48 69.68 79.95 543K 831K 67.95
Buy Not Hit. Stock has not performed so will drop.
ATVI 11/04 PreAnn 17.94 +0.09 16.40 19.65 4.1M 5M 17.28
Current.
ATW 12/09 Cup hdl 50.76 -0.25 51.48 60.95 517K 475K 49.11
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on lower, but strong volume. Need to see the breakaway move.
BCR 12/07 PreAnn 84.90 +0.16 85.36 100.00 468K 500K 83.31
Buy Not Issued.
BDX 12/09 PreAnn 72.67 -0.21 73.45 84.95 699K 1.4M 71.78
Buy Not Hit.
CBG 11/06 Test BO 32.70 -0.30 29.65 35.95 1.2M 2.4M 32.32
Current. Ease back on low volume. Looking for a rebound from the 18 day MVA (32.30)
CELG 11/27 Test 18 57.44 +1.63 55.57 63.95 3.2M 4.4M 57.45
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on low volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
CERN 11/02 Rev HS 47.38 -0.29 49.50 56.95 274K 600K 47.95
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday, but gave it back on low volume. Stock need to rebound off the 50 day MVA.
CLE 12/07 PreAnn 34.29 +1.29 33.48 39.95 7.9M 2.2M 31.78
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher on an upgrade but was well off the high
(though that was a market order at 37.49. No market
orders!). Will see if it closes this gap some, but
if it continues higher from here it is a buy.
CMTL 11/07 Cup hdl 39.30 +0.59 37.38 44.95 280K 275K 37.95
Current.
COH 09/25 Test BO 43.00 -0.13 35.05 40.48 5.5M 5M 42.54
Current. Showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside.
CRDN 12/05 DB hdl 55.19 -0.41 56.55 67.95 459K 845K 54.95
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising volume. Still forming the handle.
CTRP 12/09 Test BO 61.54 +3.51 58.50 69.95 915K 525K 58.98
Entered today. Exploded higher on excellent volume surge.
CTSH 11/02 Test 50 79.65 -1.02 76.60 87.95 1.2M 2M 79.95
Trailing Stop.
DBRN 12/07 Test BO 24.33 +0.35 25.05 29.95 1.1M 1.4M 23.68
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 23.63 at the intraday low and rallied back on average volume. Looking good.
DIOD 11/30 Test 50 39.84 -2.18 43.29 48.95 1.1M 550K 40.88
Current. Gapped lower on a downgrade but managed to bounce off a tap of the 200 day EMA. The gap did not give us much to work with but we like the rebound. Will see if it can continue & make it to the 90 day MA (40.75) to give us a better exit if it stalls again.
DO 12/06 Cup 81.50 +0.40 81.55 99.45 2.4M 4.2M 78.32
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock continues the move tomorrow on strong volume will be a buy.
DRQ 11/29 Rev HS 43.97 -0.18 43.00 50.98 393K 925K 42.97
Current. Eaes back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 74.68 -1.27 58.00 69.95 718K 1.5M 73.58
Current. Pullback on low volume. Still in uptrend.
FIC 11/30 Cup hdl 41.74 +0.25 42.44 48.78 444K 1.2M 41.12
Current.
FMD 11/28 PreSplt 53.39 +0.34 49.75 57.25 910K 1M 51.55
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
FTO 12/05 Cup hdl 32.36 +0.27 32.78 39.45 1.1M 3.2M 31.08
Buy Not Issued.
GILD 12/09 PreAnn 65.75 -0.37 68.32 78.95 2.1M 5.9M 65.55
Buy Not Hit.
GME 10/21 Test BO 57.23 -0.56 53.00 60.45 547K 1.7M 55.98
Current. Low volume pullback. Still in uptrend.
HET 11/17 Cup hdl 79.74 +0.15 78.15 87.32 3.4M 3M 77.98
Current. Meeting some new resistance at 80.
HOLX 12/02 DB hdl 50.15 -0.69 50.44 60.45 356K 1.5M 47.72
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Still forming the handle.
ICE 10/19 Test 18 113.21 +5.11 83.64 94.95 3.7M 2.4M 109.48
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to soar on stronger above average volume making an all time high.
JCOM 12/04 Cup hdl 29.39 +0.14 29.02 34.95 550K 465K 28.28
Current.
LH 10/21 Test 50 72.38 +0.33 68.80 78.75 1M 1.5M 71.31
Current.
LOGI 11/28 Test 18 29.38 -0.87 28.82 34.38 556K 445K 29.55
Trailing Stop.
LRCX 11/18 Test BO 53.10 +0.14 54.55 62.95 1.7M 4.8M 52.89
Current. Beginning to move laterally along the 18 day MVA on low volume.
LRCX 10/21 Test BO 53.10 +0.14 50.00 57.98 1.7M 4M 52.89
Current.
LVS 10/28 Cup hdl 94.50 +0.02 76.60 88.95 2.2M 3.1M 93.21
Current. Testing the breakout. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on rising volume. Looking for a rebound from the 10 day MVA (94)
MA 12/09 Test BO 99.10 -1.00 102.00 119.90 3M 3.5M 97.55
Entered today.
MON 11/21 DB hdl 47.80 -0.28 48.44 55.55 2.2M 5.4M 47.42
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Should rebound off the 18 day MVA (47.55)
MTW 11/02 Test BO 61.97 +0.30 55.50 66.48 468K 1.3M 59.98
Current.
NBL 11/04 Cup hdl 52.19 +0.17 50.55 57.85 1.3M 1.7M 51.95
Current.
NVEC 11/11 Test BO 38.51 -1.02 42.75 51.95 269K 1.1M 40.95
Current. Pullback on low volume. Looking for stock to continue to rebound from the 50 day MVA (37.95)
NVLS 11/18 Test BO 33.42 +0.65 31.80 37.98 4.2M 3.9M 32.32
Current.
PSYS 12/02 Rev HS 37.49 +0.27 35.21 40.89 412K 1M 35.75
Buy Not Issued.
SAY 11/13 Cup hdl 23.12 -0.50 23.11 27.72 536K 1.1M 23.18
Trailing Stop.
SINA 11/21 Test BO 29.27 +0.01 29.00 33.98 1.7M 950K 28.45
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on strong volume surge. Doji may indicate stock is ready for next move up.
SMSC 11/18 Test BO 30.49 -0.55 32.63 37.95 225K 450K 31.35
Exited.
SMSC 10/03 Cup hdl 30.49 -0.55 29.21 34.75 225K 504K 31.89
Trailing Stop. Slipped through the 50 day EMA on stronger volume so took no chances.
SMSC 09/16 Cup hdl 30.49 -0.55 30.05 34.75 225K 504K 31.89
Trailing Stop.
SVVS 12/05 Asc Bse 33.83 +0.59 33.74 39.95 409K 365K 32.04
Current. Moving higher on rising, average volume. Not a huge move but no complaints.
THQI 11/29 Test 50 33.55 -0.45 32.43 38.65 514K 2M 32.32
Current. Tested back some on low volume, still working laterally in the weeklong consolidation of the strong break higher to end November and start December.
TIE 12/02 Cup hdl 33.05 -0.45 32.61 39.95 1.7M 4.2M 31.95
Current. Ease back on low volume. Still in good shape. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
URBN 12/05 Cup hdl 23.44 -0.02 24.75 29.95 3.5M 400K 22.98
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on average volume. Still forming the handle.
VSEA 11/11 Test 50 41.75 +0.20 39.55 44.88 921K 1.2M 40.32
Buy Not Hit. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Still in uptrend.
WFR 12/04 Cup 43.32 +0.92 41.11 48.75 3.3M 6.5M 38.65
Buy Not Issued. Low volume ascent. Will let test back.
XTO 11/28 Rev HS 49.04 -0.07 49.44 58.95 2.9M 6M 49.11
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Testing the breakout.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CMVT 12/07 Put 19.76 +0.14 19.48 18.00 2.8M 5M 20.11
Current. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday, but fell back showing a doji on 10 day MVA on low volume. Stock needs to break through the 10 day MVA (19.70)
DIA 12/02 Put 123.30 +0.34 122.58 120.11 3.9M 8M 123.55
Buy Not Issued. Meeting some resistance here from that November top. This is where the rubber meets the road on this play.
EYE 12/09 Put 36.45 +0.11 36.04 34.51 957K 1.8M 36.85
Buy Not Hit. Broke through the 18 day MVA, but gave it back showing a doji under the 18 day MVA. Still in downtrend and looking ready to turn back over.
YHOO 12/07 Put 26.49 +0.15 26.45 25.00 13M 30M 26.82
Current. Broke through the 50 day MVA, but gave it back on low volume. Still in downtrend.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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