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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Weekend play results:
ATW: Took a breather after that strong Friday move.
CTRP: Excellent break higher
SOHU: Modest gain as volume failed it. Still ready to move.
VSEA: Inched higher on low volume.
MA: Started out nice but finished lower, still in the range.
EYE: Doji at the 18 day EMA on low volume.
LIFC: Turned down from another 18 day EMA test.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/11/2006
ANST (Ansoft--$27.95; +0.78; optionable): Electronic design automation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A quiet leader, ANST has set up a sweet little 8 week base right below the all-time high. Last week it came back to test the 10 day EMA (27.19) on low volume, holding Friday and then bouncing Monday. Needs a bit more trade as it makes the move, but hard to argue with this one as it continues to set up nice bases and break to new highs.
Volume: 208.813K Avg Volume: 254.426K
BUY POINT: $28.21 Volume=400K Target=$35.97 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: UZD DE - Apr. $25c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anst.html
Play Date: 12/11/2006
MS (Morgan Stanley--$78.77; +0.16; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
STATUS: Ascending base. MS broke out from a base in August, stumbled around, then ran well from September to October. It then started the current 8 week pattern making a couple of higher lows at the 50 day EMA (75.93). Last week it came back to test the 10 day EMA (77.98), making a higher low at that near support. That looks to have set it up for a breakout to a new 6-year high. Nice set up.
Volume: 3.203M Avg Volume: 4.125M
BUY POINT: $79.72 Volume=5M Target=$91.95 Stop=$77.54
POSITION: MS DP - Apr. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ms.html
Play Date: 12/11/2006
RATE (Bankrate--$40.96; -0.40; optionable): Internet banking marketplace
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
STATUS: Test breakout. RATE set up a nice 7 month cup with handle and broke out to start December. It rallied through last Thursday and then stalled Friday and Monday on below average volume. It may need to test further, even toward the 10 day EMA (39.17) before it is ready to move higher again, but from the look of the breakout we don't think it will be quite that deep. Want to be ready in the event it runs higher from here. Very nice pattern.
Volume: 323.157K Avg Volume: 397.818K
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=495K Target=$49.85 Stop=$39.45
POSITION: QIB EH - May $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rate.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/11/2006
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$33.69; -0.38; optionable): Agricultural commodities and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
STATUS: Put. This was one of the ethanol plays, but the stock peaked in May and has struggled since. It tried to base through August, but in September it gave it up, starting the current downtrend that has bounced down the 50 day EMA (35.82) as it moves lower. Last week ADM made it up to the 18 day EMA (34.43) and that stalled it. In November it failed at that level as well after rebounding from a drop from the 50 day EMA. It has a few more rotations down the 18 day EMA on this selling. Looking to move in as it continues lower; volume jumped above average Monday as ADM sold off from the 18 day. A move to the target lands us a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 8.024M Avg Volume: 5.591M
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=5.5M Target=$31.50 Stop=$34.25
POSITION: ADM MG - Jan. $35p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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