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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Monday night play results:
ANST: Faded back to the 10 day EMA
CYTC: Strong volume as CYTC surged higher
MNST: Another test of the 200 day SMA
ADM: Started lower but managed to recover some lost ground by the close. Still trending lower.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/12/2006
EFD (Efunds--$27.50; +1.26; optionable): Electronic payments, ATM management, global outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/efd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. A jack of all trades regarding cash flows, EFD is jacking up the price, making the breakout from a 10 month base as volume jumped to the base level in 6 weeks. The move took EFD to a new all-time high, and it may come back to check 27 before it continues on, but with these strong volume breakouts we typically step in with some positions on a continued move and then if it tests (and it typically does to some degree) we use a bounce from the test to take some more positions.
Volume: 464.4K Avg Volume: 210.117K
BUY POINT: $27.67 Volume=215K Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.65
POSITION: EDF CE - Mar. $25c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/efd.html
Play Date: 11/21/2006
OMCL (Omnicell--$19.60; -0.15; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at OMCL as it tests the strong move higher to start the month, forming the right side of its 5.5 month base. It has tested laterally the past week as the 10 day EMA (10.73) has risen to meet it. Nice doji Tuesday that tapped at that level on the low and recovered to close flat. Money flow continues to run higher even as OMCL makes this lateral test. Looking for it to hold this test and make the breakout form here.
Volume: 154.405K Avg Volume: 250.194K
BUY POINT: $20.00 Volume=325K Target=$23.95 Stop=$19.11
POSITION: UMK BD - Feb. $17.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/omcl.html
Downside
Play Date: 12/12/2006
CVD (Covance--$60.38; -1.27; optionable): Pharma, biotech product development services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Put. Imploded in late October after a three year run higher. A stock can get to a point where it just cannot grow the earnings enough to satisfy the street, and when it disappoints unexpectedly, gravity is a witch. It scratched out a rebound in November and on into this month, making it back to the 50 day EMA (61.40) the past week. Tried to move through that level Monday but no volume. The volume came in today, but it was downside. Money flow has turned back down once more ahead of the stock price, and we are ready to move in as CVD turns lower once more. A move to the target lands a 50%ish move.
Volume: 768.3K Avg Volume: 544.382K
BUY POINT: $60.18 Volume=550K Target=$58.05 Stop=$60.98
POSITION: CVD ML - Jan. $60p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cvd.html
Play Date: 12/12/2006
TJX (TJ Max--$27.67; -0.50; optionable): Discount department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
STATUS: Put. Another leader that going to the mattresses for awhile. Nice breakout and run from August through October, but the tank ran dry and it dumped lower the last half of November, falling through the 90 day SMA (27.99). That bounced it back up, but low volume has plagued it up to the 50 day EMA (28.16). Tuesday it turned down and back through the 90 day on a shot of much higher, average trade. Last time it did this it continued lower for another couple of points, and we are looking for the same move here. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 3.471M Avg Volume: 3.795M
BUY POINT: $27.49 Volume=3.5M Target=$25.84 Stop=$28.08
POSITION: TJX MF - Jan. $30p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tjx.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Volume jumped as it turned down from the 10 day EMA, continuing the selling. Again, will see how it holds near 85 to see if we need to buy back the calls.
AKAM: Showed a doji after three moves higher and on lower volume so took some gain.
DRIV: Nice easy test of the 50 day EMA on low volume.
MA: Not a great development, dumping below the 18 day EMA on strong volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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