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Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Thursday.
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/13/2006
DRI (Darden Restaurants--$41.18; +1.27; optionable): Casual restaurants
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 3:2 on 3-21-02 at $38
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. DRI broke out from a 7 month base in mid-September and surged to 44 in early October. It then faded and is currently forming a new base, coming back to support at 40 and working laterally along that level for November and to this point in December. Wednesday is surged higher on strong volume, moving through the 50 day EMA (40.64) as it jumped. With the strong volume and decisive move through the 50 day we are looking at taking positions on a further move.
Volume: 2.478M Avg Volume: 1.573M
BUY POINT: $41.33 Volume=1.6M Target=$49.45 Stop=$39.75
POSITION: DRI DH - Apr. $40c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dri.html
Play Date: 12/13/2006
GPRO (Gen Probe--$53.02; +1.85; optionable): Nucleic acid probe-based products
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 9-5-03 at $59.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. A great stock for us throughout the years, GPRO finally needed a deeper base after a nice 2005/early 2006 run, peaking in early May. It has formed a big cup and then came to life this month as volume surged and it cleared the 200 day SMA (51) in a couple of strong moves. It has tested the past week on lower volume, closing just over the 200 day Tuesday. Wednesday volume jumped once more and so did GPRO. Money flow is screaming higher. Looking to move into the stock as it continues the break off of the test of a key level.
Volume: 527.27K Avg Volume: 358.543K
BUY POINT: $53.33 Volume=400K Target=$60.95 Stop=$51.32
POSITION: PSU EJ - May $50c (66 delta, low OI) or PSU EK - May $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 08/21 Cup hdl 89.05 +2.91 68.12 78.00 31M 40M 88.65
Current. MS raised the price of its Apples to $110 and AAPL jumped back up though volume was lower than on the Tuesday selling. If you didn't buy back the calls, if it stalls again, let them ride. If you bought them back & it stalls, think about selling some more.
AEOS 11/11 FlyPlat 47.09 +0.54 48.23 55.65 2.1M 3.2M 46.98
Current. Bounced modestly off of the 50 day SMA on lower volume.
Not a great move given the retail sales results but
still set up for a bounce as it moves toward the 12-19-06
split date.
AKAM 11/11 DB hdl 54.97 +0.57 50.81 60.95 3.9M 7.5M 52.98
Target Hit.
AKAM 10/21 Test 50 54.97 +0.57 47.20 55.95 3.9M 7M 52.98
Current. Gapped higher once more and on even lower, below avge
volume. Nice breakout and move higher but really losing
its steam here. Not fretting over it but if you have
not taken part of the gain on options, worth doing so.
AMAG 11/30 Test BO 60.34 -0.57 56.74 67.85 179K 350K 59.95
Current. Extremely light, almost non-existent volume as AMAG
tests the 10 day EMA. Solid second test of the breakout
so not sweating this pullback.
AMX 11/29 Asc Bse 44.60 -0.36 45.50 53.95 2.8M 4M 43.95
Current. Fell back to the 18 day EMA on lower, below avg volume.
Lick log time for this pullback.
ANST 12/02 Cup 27.87 +0.37 28.08 35.97 209K 400K 26.42
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and bounced. Still
a sweet set up for the breakout.
ATVI 11/04 PreAnn 17.50 -0.05 16.40 19.65 2.9M 5M 17.28
Current. Holding the 10 day EMA on very low volume for the 2nd
session. Good hold at this important near support as
it continues its uptrend.
ATW 12/09 Cup hdl 51.19 +0.80 51.85 60.95 403K 475K 49.94
Entered today. Surged higher to 52 then faded to the close as volume
moved to average. Came back on us, but have few worries
with this one and other oil stocks given the strong
patterns that have formed.
BCR 12/07 PreAnn 84.33 +0.13 85.36 100.00 301K 500K 83.31
Buy Not Issued. Nice hold at the 10 day EMA on low volume, testing
that strong move from last week. Excellent test and
set up for the next move.
BDX 12/09 PreAnn 72.49 -0.06 73.45 84.95 852K 1.4M 71.78
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher but faded back to the 10 day EMA to close.
Still a nice handle and nice launch pad for the breakout.
CBG 11/06 Test BO 32.50 -0.46 29.65 35.95 1.3M 2.4M 32.32
Current. Gapped sharply higher to 33.36 but reversed to close
at the 18 day EMA. At least volume remained low on
the reversal. Needs to hold this level to keep the
trend going.
CELG 11/27 Test 18 56.35 -1.19 55.57 63.95 8.3M 4.4M 57.45
Current. Got dicey with an early plunge to 53.50 but then rebounded
to hold the 18 day EMA on the close. Good recovery
but getting a bit wild here. Needs to hold the line
and settle down.
CERN 11/02 Rev HS 47.81 +0.18 49.50 56.95 265K 600K 47.95
Current. Still holding the 50 day EMA on below avg volume, trying
to put together some upside here.
CLE 12/07 PreAnn 34.00 -0.15 33.48 39.95 1.5M 2.2M 31.78
Buy Not Issued. Still holding the gap higher from Monday but thus far
not able to extend the move. Of course, it is not giving
it up either. May come back some more and when it does
fill some of that gap and rebounds we are buyers.
CMTL 11/07 Cup hdl 39.19 -0.06 37.38 44.95 171K 275K 38.05
Current. Low volume stall the past two sessions but still holding
the breakout and the trend higher quite nicely.
COH 09/25 Test BO 42.42 -0.03 35.05 40.48 3.4M 5M 42.54
Current. Still hugging the 18 day EMA on the close, unable to
hold the modest gains on the retail sales news. Key
test for this retail leader here just ahead of the
holidays.
CRDN 12/05 DB hdl 55.75 +0.89 56.55 67.95 497K 845K 54.95
Buy Not Issued. Modest volume bump as CRDN posted a decent price move
off the 10 day EMA test. Still ready for the breakout
and looking nice.
CTRP 12/09 Test BO 60.57 -0.33 58.50 69.95 271K 525K 58.98
Current. Another ease back after that big Monday move, but low
volume and recovered off the low. Good test setting
up the next move higher withough giving up much ground.
DBRN 12/07 Test BO 23.75 -0.41 25.05 29.95 824K 1.4M 23.68
Buy Not Hit. Faded to tap the 18 day EMA on the low on continued
below avg volume. Still setting up but still unable
to deliver the move yet.
DIOD 11/30 Test 50 37.16 -1.99 43.29 48.95 1.1M 550K 40.88
Exited. Not only did not participate in the early bounce, it
ran like a scalded dog below the 200 day MA. We got
out of Didge and DIOD collapsed.
DO 12/06 Cup 82.16 +1.56 82.75 99.45 3.5M 4.2M 79.89
Entered today. Volume was up as DO bounced higher. It gave back some
gain on the close, but really like the action and it
looks to continue its steady move higher, particularly
after breaking the 200 day MA to start the month.
FFIV 10/13 DB hdl 74.29 +0.36 58.00 69.95 580K 1.5M 73.58
Current.
FIC 11/30 Cup hdl 42.12 +0.73 42.44 48.78 890K 1.2M 41.12
Current. What do you know, a heartbeat. Volume jumped above
avg as FIC gapped up, posting a modest gain. Time to
see some better than fair upside action here Isaac.
FMD 11/28 PreSplt 51.50 -0.70 49.75 57.25 919K 1M 51.55
Current. Low volume tap at the 18 day EMA and a modest rebound.
Just continuing its uptrend, now in a modest pullback mode.
FTO 12/05 Cup hdl 31.84 +0.50 32.78 39.45 1.3M 3.2M 31.08
Buy Not Issued. Rebounded from the 18 day EMA dump Thursday but rather
inauspicious move given the other action in the energy
sector.
GILD 12/09 PreAnn 63.97 -1.29 68.32 78.95 4.9M 5.9M 65.55
Buy Not Hit. GILD is no daisy, tumbling below the 90 day MA on the
strongest trade in over a month. Dropping.
GME 10/21 Test BO 56.28 -0.12 53.00 60.45 977K 1.7M 55.98
Current. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the intraday low and rebounded
nicely as volume remained below avg. Still in the nice
trend higher.
HET 11/17 Cup hdl 78.50 -1.66 78.15 87.32 11M 3M 77.98
Current. Talk of a recapitlization versus a buyout sent the
shares thumping down to the 18 day EMA where it held
after a test lower. Like that it rebounded but needs
to show us more here.
HOLX 12/02 DB hdl 49.77 +0.11 50.44 60.45 545K 1.5M 47.72
Buy Not Issued. Another nice hold at the 18 day EMA with a doji. Ready
to move; needs to show it and it looks as if it will
in the near future.
IBM 12/12 Test 18 94.77 +0.65 95.05 104.95 6.3M 8M 92.97
Entered today. Gapped higher though volume faded to average. Not
bad and worth entering and then again after a modest
test of this move.
ICE 10/19 Test 18 107.20 -2.79 83.64 94.95 3M 2.4M 109.48
Current. Fell to the 10 day EMA but held there and bounced,
so we decided to let it ride through the session.
JCOM 12/04 Cup hdl 28.50 -0.32 29.02 34.95 366K 465K 28.28
Current. Still coming back, fading to the 18 day EMA on the
close on lower, below avg volume. This is where the
JCOM meets the road.
LEH 12/12 DB hdl 76.37 -0.30 78.11 89.95 3.3M 5.5M 75.65
Buy Not Hit. Went nowhere on lower volume. Still in the pattern,
still looking for the break higher.
LH 10/21 Test 50 71.92 -0.08 68.80 78.75 708K 1.5M 71.31
Current. Gapped higher but volume did not support it and LH
fell back toward the 10 day EMA. No volume on the entire
move so don't want it to stumble here.
LRCX 11/18 Test BO 51.77 -1.19 54.55 62.95 2.9M 4.8M 52.89
Exited.
LRCX 10/21 Test BO 51.77 -1.19 50.00 57.98 2.9M 4M 52.89
Trailing Stop.
LVS 10/28 Cup hdl 91.56 -1.98 76.60 88.95 2M 3.1M 93.21
Current. Key test here at th e18 day EMA. Volume was up on the
fade but still below avg. Needs to hold and deliver
a new bounce here or we close it.
MON 11/21 DB hdl 48.15 +0.05 48.44 55.55 1.9M 5.4M 47.57
Current. Was surging nicely to 48.93 but then after the oil
inventories it gave it all back to close flat.
MS 12/11 Asc Bse 78.96 +0.56 79.72 91.95 2.8M 5M 77.54
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher to the recent highs but was not ready
to punch through as volume faded back to below average.
MTW 11/02 Test BO 59.36 -0.36 55.50 66.48 521K 1.3M 59.98
Current. Holding the 18 day EMA on low volume as it tried to
gap higher but could not hold the move. Important point
to hold and keep the uptrend in place as it did in
November.
NBL 11/04 Cup hdl 52.94 +0.90 50.55 57.85 1.3M 1.7M 51.95
Current. Gapped higher and managed to hold the gain on some
rising, above avg volume.
NVEC 11/11 Test BO 37.88 -1.26 42.75 51.95 317K 1.1M 40.95
Current. Fell back to the 50 day EMA on very low trade as the
strong price and volume bounce from Friday gave up.
Now we see if it can use the 50 day MA once more as
an upside catalyst.
NVLS 11/18 Test BO 32.28 -0.83 31.80 37.98 4.4M 3.9M 32.32
Current. Fell to the 18 day EMA on some rising trade as chips
struggled. The 18 day EMA has held as support on this
move, however, so this is where it needs to hold and
continue higher once more.
PSYS 12/02 Rev HS 36.60 -0.36 35.21 40.89 540K 1M 36.22
Buy Not Issued. Now a nice pullback to test the low voume break higher
to start the month. A hold here and rebound on some
volume would give us a good entry point.
RATE 12/11 Test BO 39.50 -0.83 41.55 49.85 273K 495K 39.45
Buy Not Hit. Another low volume test lower, closing on the 10 day
EMA as RATE forms the handle and prepared for the breakout.
SINA 11/21 Test BO 28.91 +0.01 29.00 33.98 471K 950K 28.45
Current. Lost its nerve after that strong Friday move, fading
to the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to hold
the 10 day on the close. Still a nice pattern.
SVVS 12/05 Asc Bse 34.25 +0.21 33.74 39.95 467K 365K 32.72
Current. Still moving higher, but a lower volume doji after
a week of gains. Running out of steam a bit but still
working higher.
SWS 12/12 PreSplt 33.78 -0.01 34.21 39.25 109K 200K 32.75
Buy Not Hit. Faded modestly on low volume after the strong Tuesday
move higher. Still set to continue the next break higher.
TECH 12/11 Test 20 54.94 -0.24 55.57 63.95 168K 300K 53.55
Buy Not Hit. Tried to extend the move off the 50 day EMA but turned
back down to close at the 18 day EMA. Still a solid
little pattern.
THQI 11/29 Test 50 33.71 +0.35 32.43 38.65 908K 2M 32.57
Current. Still working laterally as the 10 day EMA continues
to rise to meet it. Nice lateral move as it refuses
to give up the strong gains to end November and begin
December.
URBN 12/05 Cup hdl 23.69 +0.31 24.75 29.95 2M 400K 22.98
Buy Not Issued. Low vollume as URBN held above the 10 day EMA. Still
looking for a bounce higher and some volume with it.
VSEA 11/11 Test 50 41.68 -0.41 39.55 44.88 764K 1.2M 40.58
Current. Gapped higher and tried to really stretch the move
but closed lower on low volume. Still above the 10
day EMA as it continues higher.
WFR 12/04 Cup 42.50 +0.39 41.11 48.75 3.5M 6.5M 38.65
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher and then tested the 10 day EMA intraday.
Nice test this week of that strong break higher last
week. On a continued move higher from here on some
stronger volume it is another buy.
XTO 11/28 Rev HS 49.16 +0.46 49.44 58.95 3.2M 6M 49.11
Current. Again held the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded
for a gain as volume moved higher but was still below
average. Nice test and given what we see in the sector
we are not stressing over it.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CMVT 12/07 Put 20.02 +0.04 19.48 18.00 1.7M 5M 20.11
Current. Gapped higher, continuing the recovery from the Tues
gap lower and recovery, but faded on the session on
low volume. Looks as if it has little chance to move
up; the downside lane is downhill for it from this pattern.
CVD 12/12 Put 59.57 -0.81 59.84 58.00 533K 550K 60.42
Entered today. Covance is going under. Heading lower after the 50
day EMA test, resuming the downside move. Nice.
DIA 12/02 Put 123.34 +0.16 122.58 120.11 4.4M 8M 123.55
Buy Not Issued. Gapped to a new all-time high but faded to basically
flat. Not looking as if it wants to fall here. We will see.
EYE 12/09 Put 35.73 -0.27 36.04 34.51 538K 1.8M 36.85
Buy Not Issued.
TJX 12/12 Put 28.11 +0.44 27.84 26.00 3.2M 3.5M 28.22
Buy Not Hit. Tested lower but then rebounded to close just below
the 50 day EMA on lower, below avg volume. Still looking
for it to turn down from here. Raising the buy point
some to accomodate this rebound.
YHOO 12/07 Put 26.60 -0.15 26.45 25.00 20M 30M 26.82
Current. Gapped higher on a collaboration ventur, but rolled
over and closed just below the 50 day EMA. For the
second session it was unable to hold a move, a sign
of weakness.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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