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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: DO; NVLS; SVVS; SWS; XTO; CVD
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/14/2006
SLB (Schlumberger--$68.72; +1.35; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Volume was up Thursday as SLB bounced further off the 18 day EMA (66.48) after completing the test of the late November breakout from its 7 month base. Strong volume break higher and nice low volume test. Then volume started jacking back up as SLB rebounded. Ready to move in as SLB continues the breakout move.
Volume: 9.796M Avg Volume: 9.5M
BUY POINT: $69.45 Volume=14M Target=$79.95 Stop=$66.89
POSITION: SLB EN - May $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
Leader: Could turn into pre-announcement plays
Play Date: 12/14/2006
DRIV (Digital River--$57.08; -0.49; optionable): e-commerce outsourcing solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Received a downgrade Thursday and that pushed it down a bit further, enough to complete the test of the 50 day EMA (56.33). This is DRIV's second 50 day EMA test since the August breakout from a double bottom with handle base. It gapped off of the 50 day EMA in late October and rallied to 60 and then faded back to test that move. A strong stock makes periodic tests of the 50 day EMA as it rallies higher. Some of the volume Thursday was attributable to the downgrade so we are looking for some more strong volume as DRIV rebounds off this level and moves through the near resistance of the 10 and 18 day EMA (58.06). Strong volume and a move back up through that level is an indication it is ready to resume its upside run.
Volume: 1.589M Avg Volume: 1.015M
BUY POINT: $58.21 Volume=1.4M Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: DQI CK - Mar. $55c (62 delta) or DQI CL - Mar. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/driv.html
Play Date: 12/14/2006
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$53.29; +1.17; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
STATUS: Test breakout. PMTI broke to a new 8-year high this week, gapping up Monday on an FDA approval. That move continued the breakout from a 4 month baes back in late October. After a good consolidation mid-November to early December PMTI got the good news and continued the move. Now a nice, low volume test back to the 10 day EMA (51.90) has tested this last break higher and is giving us a good entry point to get in on the move. Started to rebound Thursday and as it continues the rebound we are ready to move in. Top fundamentals to go along with the great pattern.
Volume: 649.003K Avg Volume: 481.588K
BUY POINT: $53.82 Volume=722K Target=$63.95 Stop=$51.72
POSITION: HKQ EG - May $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pmti.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
APH: Forecast 1-17-07
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07
BCR: No announcement with the board meeting on Wednesday. Researching the next date but looks like mid-January.
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
CLE: Looking in early January but pinpointing a date
CRDN: Forecast 12-18-06
CTSH: 2-9-07
DIOD: Tentatively set 2-5-07
DRI: Researching the date
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07
GPRO: Researching the date
HET: Forecast 1-18-07
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/14/2006
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$68.95; +1.61; optionable): Wireless communications
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-27-05 at $80.80. Before that a 3:1 split on 2-26-04 at $99.80
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Test breakout. A bit low for its usual split price, but you have to like the pattern. A big runner since, well, it came public in 2003. It needed a breather and formed this 7 month cup with handle base. It worked up and down from late October through November, finally getting some volume the past week after cracking higher. Solid upside volume on the gains, including Thursday as NIHD moved to a new all-time high. Solid action and looking to move into positions as it continues the breakout run.
Volume: 3.119M Avg Volume: 1.645M
BUY POINT: $69.35 Volume=1.6M Target=$79.75 Stop=$67.05
POSITION: QHQ CN - Mar. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/07/2006
BCR (C.R. Bard--$84.34; +0.01; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-21-04 at $100.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice tight doji Thursday that tapped at the 18 day EMA on the low and held the 10 day EMA on the close. Excellent test back the past week, holding the near support on rising though still below average volume. Looking to move in as it shows the break higher on a jump in volume. To recap: A bit early perhaps, but a nice pattern. Volume jumped above average Thursday as BCR made the breakout from its short but sweet 7 week base. This follows a huge surge in mid-October on its earnings results. That move took it out of a 6 month base and really got the stock rolling. This nice short base is solid and has given BCR a breather to make a run to 100. A stock that is trending higher and gets within the gravitational pull of 100 typically goes ahead and makes the run.
Volume: 413.5K Avg Volume: 485.318K
BUY POINT: $85.36 Volume=500K Target=$100.00 Stop=$83.31
POSITION: BCR DQ - Apr. $85c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 12/09/2006
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$72.83; +0.34; optionable): Medical instruments and supplies. Forecast 1-25-07.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 8-20-98 at $82.76. Before that it split in 1996 and 1993 at roughly the same price.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: ascending base. Volume jumped above average Thursday as BDX tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and recovered for a gain. Nice shakeout and recovery to positive. This looks like a shakeout. Just have to wait for the breakaway move on continued solid trade. To recap: BDX is working on a 9 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (71.08), part of a bid stair-step up higher as BDX bases, rallies, bases, rallies. Positive accumulation in the pattern combines with surging money flow. Looks ready to make the break higher as it paused to end last week on lower volume, holding its gains. When the volume returns it will be ready to continue higher.
Volume: 1.016M Avg Volume: 906.757K
BUY POINT: $73.45 Volume=1.4M Target=$84.95 Stop=$71.78
POSITION: DBX CN - Mar. $70c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 12/05/2006
CRDN (Ceradyne--$55.98; +0.23; optionable): Ceramic armor products. Forecast 12-18-06.
BACKGROUND: Announced a 3:2 split on 12-20-04 at $53.20. Prior to that a 3:2 split on 3-11-04 at $34.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Needs to get some volume, but a nice hold at the 10 day EMA this week and starting back up. A bit of trade would really send it on its way. To recap: Strong volume surge to start the month as CRDN broke higher out of the three week handle to its 9 month base. After a strong surge from 2003 through 2005 CRDN needed a break before running again, and this current base has done just that. Volume has returned en masse starting in November when the stock moved off the bottom of the pattern and started forming the right side of its base. That is exactly what you want to see as it starts up. It then dried up during the handle to below average, again just what you want to see. Then the big volume breakout, also just what you want to see. Money flow is screaming higher. CRDN looks to follow it.
Volume: 447.365K Avg Volume: 836.1K
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=845K Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: AUE CK - Mar. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/02/2006
HOLX (Hologic--$49.46; -0.31; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the test, holding the 18 day EMA on below average volume the past three sessions, making a higher low, preparing for the continued move higher. Nice 8 month base, and this test is ready to send it higher, following the money flow. Nice leader that needed a rest after that surge in 2005, and this has given it just what it needs.
Volume: 666.7K Avg Volume: 1.001M
BUY POINT: $50.44 Volume=1.5M Target=$60.45 Stop=$47.72
POSITION: QHX CJ - Mar. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
Play Date: 12/05/2006
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$23.98; +0.29; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Holding the 10 day EMA this week, testing near support after the strong break higher to start the month. Good action in URBN's 13 month cup base, building higher up the right side of the base. After this test it is ready. Volume was up to average Thursday as it rebounds. Ready to follow the surging money flow higher.
Volume: 3.846M Avg Volume: 3.937M
BUY POINT: $24.75 Volume=400K Target=$29.95 Stop=$22.98
POSITION: URQ CX - Mar. $22.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 12/11/2006
MS (Morgan Stanley--$79.60; +0.64; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong, above average volume Thursday as MS heads toward the breakout from its 8 week base, making higher lows up the 50 day EMA. Now a higher low a bit higher at the 10 day EMA this week. All of the brokers are sporting solid earnings and MS looks ready for a 5 year high.
Volume: 5.158M Avg Volume: 4.104M
BUY POINT: $79.72 Volume=5M Target=$91.95 Stop=$77.54
POSITION: MS DP - Apr. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ms.html
Play Date: 12/11/2006
RATE (Bankrate--$39.37; -0.13; optionable): Internet based banking services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice tight doji on the 10 day EMA Thursday as volume rose to average on the test that has completed the handle to the 8 month base. Excellent action in an excellent pattern. Looking for that volume to continue as RATE makes its break higher.
Volume: 380.16K Avg Volume: 401.731K
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=495K Target=$49.85 Stop=$39.45
POSITION: QIB EH - May $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rate.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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