|
|
trade stock, stock split
Begin Part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) GS: Breaking out of an ascending wedge on huge volume.
2) BAC: Moving up on strong volume.
3) SUPG: Looks ready to move off the 18 day MVA again.
4) EDSN: Breaking out and still a buy.
5) RECN: Looks ready to break out.
6) RCOM: Strong buying at the 50 day MVA.
7) MFLO: Looks ready for a breakout.
8) PRSF: A small stock in a nice pattern.
9) Puts: PCS and QCOM look to be heading south.
10) AUDC: At support with a tight doji and low volume.
11) KANAD: A strong move in the wedge.
New:
Financials have been expected to perform well ever since the view that the economy would improve became more pervasive. Problem was, they were not doing it. Thursday and Friday things started to fit together as the transports rallied as well. This time the moves look as if they will hold up better.
GS (Goldman Sachs--$96.75; +4.30; optionable): Investment Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
STATUS: GS is in a 16-month base and in November broke back over its 200 day MVA so is off the lows. Currently in another cup-type base (has the v-bottom from September) of 7 months, GS broke out of an ascending wedge (double handle?) that formed just above mid-range in the right side. Buy point was 95.30, leaving the stock a buy on this move. Volume was huge at 5.7 million (avg. 2.9 million), so was a strong move with GS gapping up on the opening price of 94.35. Excellent money flow, and relative strength is breaking out. Target: 113
BUY POINT: Remains a buy on the breakout up to 100.07. Buy point from here: 96.85 on continued strong volume, but GS may give us some weakness to test 95 early Monday. A test and turn back up is the best buy point. Stop: 90.07 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February $90 calls to buy (GS BR).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gs.html
BAC (Bank of America--$63.87; +0.98; optionable): Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bac.html
STATUS: BAC is moving up in the handle of a double bottom pattern of 18 weeks. Now the handle has been rather volatile, but the stock has held steady at the 50 day MVA (62.01) on the lows. Late in the week it moved back over the 18 day MVA, and volume built throughout the week. Friday BAC moved up from the 18 day as volume broke back above average for the first time since 12-21 (5.3 million; avg. 5.4 million). We are looking for a continued move up and breakout over the November high of 64.99. Aggressive positions can be considered for a move over the recent highs at the 64.16 level. Money flow looks good. Target: 78
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 64.25 on continued rising volume. Stop: 59.75 (7%). Breakout: 65.12 on volume of 8 million or higher. Stop: 60.56 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February $60 calls to buy (BAC BL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bac.html
SUPG (Supergen--$14.00; +0.06; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/supg.html
STATUS: Low in a 22-month base, but off the lows near 6.50. SUPG bounced once in December from the 18 day MVA after breaking out over its 200 day MVA in November. As it now pulls back in a handle to the current 7-month base (less-than-smooth cup), the stock is now at that support again. Volume fell back the previous 2 sessions to low levels, but shot above average Friday (261,800; avg. 173,000). Like those volume spikes on doji's; they often portend a move up. Showing strong money flow and solid buying, looking at a target near 18. Handle high is 15.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 14.30 on continued rising volume. Stop: 13.30 (7%). Breakout: 15.13 on volume of 260,000 or higher. Stop: 14.07 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February $12.50 (UOG BV; low open interests, good delta) or April $12.50 calls to buy (UOG DV, current delta 0.69).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/supg.html
CVG (Convergys--$37.96; +0.45; optionable): Business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvg.html
STATUS: A nice ascending wedge that is than handle to 7.5 month cup with handle pattern. Now ascending wedges are not the best handles for cups, but this one has been on low volume and the intraday lows have been lower and lower. Volume is low in the pattern, down Friday to 474,200 (avg. 634,000). The stock tapped support on the intraday low at 36, then was back up and closed the day just above most immediate support, the 10 day MVA (37.35). Looks ready to make a breakout when volume rolls back in. Showing very strong money flow and high relative strength. Target: 46
BUY POINT: 38.63 on volume of 856,000 or higher. Stop: 35.93 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (CVG DG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvg.html
EDSN (Edison Schools--$20.54; +1.33; optionable): Education services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edsn.html
STATUS: EDSN is in a year-long base and just recently broke back over resistance that has held it down since March, the 200 day MVA (19.32). The stock was moving in a flat base above its 50 day MVA when it headed over the resistance, and Friday broke out of the pattern as volume ripped up to 1.2 million (avg. 727,000). The pivot point was 20.64, making the stock a continued buy on this strong move (up to 21.67). We are looking for a move up to a target at 25. Showing big money flow and decent buying.
BUY POINT: 20.60 on continued rising volume. Stop: 19.16 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March $20 calls to buy (USD CD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/edsn.html
RECN (Rscs Connection--$27.51; +1.81; optionable): Business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Ready to break out of a cup with handle inside a slightly larger base. The handle has been volatile, since after its first pullback to the 18 day MVA RECN could not make the breakout on the bounce back up. However, it pulled back again to that support, and with volume surging Thursday (and up by Friday to 597,100; avg. 260,000) gave a nice move off the 10 day MVA (25.84; 18 day at 25.30). Looking for a breakout over the handle high (28.25). Money flow shooting up. Target: 34
BUY POINT: 28.38 on continued strong volume (390,0000 is minimum for breakout). Stop: 26.39 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February or March $25 calls to buy (QRG BE or CE; 0 open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/recn.html
RCOM (Register.Com--$10.77; +0.58; optionable): Internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rcom.html
STATUS: RCOM was moving up the right side of its 6-month cup until it was hit with some selling Wednesday and Thursday, action that thrust price down to the 50 day MVA (10.26). Institutions stepped in at that point, however, and on huge volume Friday (1.5 million; avg. 286,454) the stock bounced back from the support. We are looking for a move back up, aggressive entry points on a break back over the 18 day MVA for the bounce play. Excellent money flow and buying. Target: initial, 14
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 11 on continued strong volume. Stop: 10.28 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February $10 calls to buy (RAU BB).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rcom.html
ACXM (Acxiom--$18.34; +0.35; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acxm.html
STATUS: Testing the recent breakout over its 200 day MVA (at 14.03 currently). The lateral pattern is a very tight handle to the stock's 7.5-month base, and has shown the steadily decreasing volume that we like to see in handles. The action changed Friday with volume rising to 1.26 million (avg. 1 million) and ACXM making the small move up; that has gotten our attention and therefore look for a breakout. Strong money flow and solid buying. Target: 23
BUY POINT: 18.80 on volume of 1.5 million or better. Stop: 17.48 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February $17.50 calls to buy (UQA BW)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acxm.html
Two stocks that trade on average daily volume of 100,000 or less:
LNOP (Lanoptics--$7.02; +0.13; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnop.html
STATUS: Off the lows (2.70) in a 22-month base, LNOP is in an ascending wedge with some upper resistance at the 200 day MVA (6.86) which LNOP moved over in the last 2 days of trading. Volume was higher Friday (33,200; avg. 39,000) as the stock closed with a doji, and LNOP is likely to test the 200 day MVA or can even move down to the range of the trendline that supports the pattern at the 6.70 level, but we prefer a hold at the 200 day. Higher resistance is at the December tops, 7.50 (earlier in the month) and 7.25 at the second peak in the pattern. Strong money flow. Target: 9
BUY POINT: 7.30 on volume of 40,000 or higher. Stop: 6.70 (7%). Breakout: 7.63 on volume of 53,000 or higher. Stop: 7.10 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lnop.html
MFLO (Moldflow--$14.90; +0.90; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mflo.html
STATUS: In a 6.5-month cup with handle, the handle forming after MFLO moved over its 200 day MVA recently and immediately developed the tight, lateral movement. The stock threw a volume spike December 27 inside the handle, a sign of a possible bigger move, after a Wednesday attempt on low volume MFLO was back to work Friday, up again and closing just under that resistance but with volume blasting up to 137,000 (avg. 61,227). Looking for a breakout over 15 on continued strong volume. Big money flow and strong buying. Target: 18
BUY POINT: 15.10 on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume is 92,000). Stop: 14.04 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mflo.html
Two very small stocks for a shorter term trade up to resistance:
PRSF (Portal Software--$2.28; +0.21; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prsf.html
STATUS: Making a nice move up in an ascending wedge that is almost 10 weeks long, though PRSF is crawling along the floor of a massive 2-year base. Volume was just above average on the move up in the wedge, climbing to 1.87 million (avg. 1.7 million). Looking for a breakout over the pattern's high at 2.47 (from November), for a run up to the 200 day MVA at the 3.50 range. Money flow is flat but at decent levels.
BUY POINT: 2.60 on volume of 2.3 million or higher. Stop: 2.42 (7%)
POSITION: Stock; options out of the money for now.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prsf.html
EGOV (National Info Consortium--$3.72; +0.50; no options): Internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
STATUS: In a 22-month base though off the lows near 1.00 (fall 2000). Has formed a saucer base since February and more recently within that base a cup with handle. Friday EGOV broke out of this last pattern, with volume blasting up to 231,900 (avg. 91,181). The stock remains a buy on this move up to 3.90 (5% over the buy point of 3.70). Has strong money flow, and relative strength is breaking out as well. Target: 5
BUY POINT: 3.85 on continued strong volume. Stop: 3.49 (7%).
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
New Puts:
PCS (Sprint--$22.45; -1.89; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcs.html
STATUS: Ready to break out of a large descending wedge (started forming in early October) after heading down on strong volume Friday (13.8 million; avg. 7.1 million), no news available to explain the drop. Upon hitting the lows that mark potential support at the lows in the pattern (near 22), we will look for the downside breakout (breakdown). Target: 17.50
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 21.97 on continued strong volume. Breakdown: 21 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: February $30 puts to buy (PCS NF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcs.html
CL (Colgate-Palmolive--$56.24; -1.18; optionable): Consumer non-durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cl.html
STATUS: CL has been fighting down trendlines since October; the resistance finally pushed the stock below the 50 day MVA in December, and after an attempt at recovery fell back below that support last week. Friday CL broke below the 200 day MVA (56.46) on strong volume. It bounced back up to close but could not move back over the moving average (volume shot up to 2.2 million; avg. 1.3 million). If the stock doesn't move back over the 200 day, we will look for it to test that resistance and on a move back down, look at the put play. Target: 51.50
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 55.80 on continued rising volume.
POSITION: February $60 puts to buy (CL NL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cl.html
CONTINUED PLAYS:
TEST OF BREAKOUT:
AUDC (Audiocodes--$5.63; +0.05; optionable): Scientific & Technical Instr.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/audc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from the ascending wedge, pulling back from the breakout high of 5.97 with volume decreasing in an orderly manner. Showing a tight doji Friday just above the 200 day MVA (which AUDC tapped on the intraday low of 5.52), the stock looks ready for a move back up once volume rolls in (down Friday to 287,000; avg. 359,000). Looks ready to hold the support for now. Strong money flow, solid buying. Initial target: 7
BUY POINT: For new or additional positions, after holding the 200 day, a move back over 6 on above average volume. Stop: 5.58 (7%)
POSITION: April $5 calls to buy (XRD DA).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/audc.html
DSTM (Datastream--$6.37; +0.27; optionable): Technical Systems Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dstm.html
STATUS: Made a good move up Friday (hit aggressive buy point at 6.15) after the stock had pulled back in the handle to its 6-month cup base and held support at the moving average. (The handle formed after a strong move over the 200 day MVA.) Volume was slightly lower but still above average at 90,400 (avg. 83,000) with DSTM using support at 6 for the small move up. We'll look for volume to ratchet back up and break the stock out over the December high at 6.61. Excellent money flow and buying. Target: 8
BUY POINT: 6.65 on rising volume. Stop: 6.18 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February $5 calls to buy (DQK BA).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dstm.html
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
KANAD (Kana Communications--$21.25; +1.95; no options): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kanad.html
STATUS: Powering up in the ascending wedge pattern that formed after KANAD did not break out of a 3.5-month cup. This is a potentially powerful pattern. The move started Thursday with volume rising, Friday on higher volume at 609,900 (avg. 350,000; KANAD effected a 1 for 10 split in December, so average volume is now 1/10 what it was). Great move that got us into some positions, and now we are looking for the breakout over the pattern high at 22.14. The stock hit our aggressive buy point Friday (20). Money flow and buying are outstanding. Target: 27.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 22.26 on volume of 4.5 million or higher. Stop: 20.70 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kanad.html
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
VAST (Vastera--$15.95; -0.66; optionable): Information Technology Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vast.html
STATUS: VAST is in an 11-month cup with handle that is inside a larger, 15-month base. Action in the handle turned volatile for 2 of the last 4 days (not too bad though), and held the 18 day MVA (15.75). A strong shot of volume Friday to 300,000 (avg. 271,000). We will look for the move up toward breakout. Handle high is from December (18.60). VAST has strong money flow. Target: 22
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 17 on above average volume. Stop: 15.81 (7%).Breakout: 18.73 on volume of 407,000 or better. Stop: 17.42 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $15 calls to buy (AQY DC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vast.html
Continued Puts:
QCOM (Qualcomm--$50.41; -1.57; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Starting to get really interesting. Still holding at 50 level support, but after opening at the 18 day MVA Friday (at 52.79) the stock on strong volume sold back down to 49.79 before bouncing back up only slightly. QCOM looks ready to take out the support level with the higher volume (19.4 million; avg. 15.3 million). Target for the move down: 45
BUY POINT: 49 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: February $60 puts to buy (AAO NL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
TTN (Titan Corp--$24.57; +0.04; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttn.html
STATUS: Hanging at the 50 day MVA after moving below that support on Wednesday (the 50 day is currently at 24.68). The move back up to test the 50 day has been weak, and Friday the stock tried to make a move over that level, but collapsed back and closed below it on a doji. That is a sign of weakness at that level, and could portent the further move down we have been looking for down to the 200 day MVA (20.78). We do note that on Wednesday TTN tapped an up trendline (connecting September and October lows). The trendline, at 23.30 currently, can provide support, so we want to see the move lower start on rising volume.
BUY POINT: Below 24 on rising volume in the range of 400,000. Friday's volume was 298,300; avg. 1.28 million).
POSITION: February $30 puts to buy (TTN NF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ttn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
stock split
|
