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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/19/2006
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$53.50; -0.14; optionable): Information technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
STATUS: Ascending base. INFY is a market leader that rallied well August to early November and is now working on a short 5 week base that is using the 50 day EMA (52.46) to make some higher low as it sets up for the next breakout move. It has come back tot eh 50 day EMA this week, tapping at that support Tuesday and rebounding nicely. Looking for that momentum to take it higher, but need to see the volume kick up on our first buy point that is right after the 10 day EMA (54.16). After that we will look for it to blow through 55.65 for our next entry point. Market leader taking a breather during this pre-Christmas shift, but holding up and minding its own business.
Volume: 1.616M Avg Volume: 1.7M
BUY POINT: $54.38 Volume=2.6M Target=$65.45 Stop=$52.31
POSITION: IUN DK - Apr. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
Play Date: 12/19/2006
LUK (Leucadia National--$28.19; +0.38; optionable): Holding company for healthcare, telecom, real estate, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
STATUS: Cup. LUK has made us money before, and it is setting up to do the same now. It is in a 7 month base, and is now coming off the bottom, forming a 13 week cup with handle within the larger base. It rallied up to the 200 day SMA (28.09) to start December, then faded back to the 18 day EMA to form the handle. Tuesday it blasted through the 200 day SMA on strong volume, clearing the base and ready to continue working higher and forming the right side of its base. Excellent set up to run toward the high in the base near 33.
Volume: 913.3K Avg Volume: 573.489K
BUY POINT: $28.44 Volume=625K Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: LUK CE - Mar. $25c (88 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/luk.html
Play Date: 12/19/2006
TK (Teekay Shipping--$44.59; -0.34; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is a nice 19 week base that has formed as part of a larger 2 year pattern. TK had a lot of consolidating to do of a strong 2003-2004 run, and this pattern has done just that. It spent the last week testing back to the 10 day EMA, forming the handle to the base, the part that shakes out the weaker holders. Nice hammer doji at the 10 day EMA Tuesday indicates it is ready to rebound and show us the breakout move.
Volume: 412.5K Avg Volume: 379.674K
BUY POINT: $46.05 Volume=600K Target=$52.95 Stop=$44.21
POSITION: TK DI - Apr. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
APH: Forecast 1-17-07. Still struggling. No current play.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07
BCR: Forecast mid-January. Nice break higher Tuesday.
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
BPO: Forecast early February
CLE: Looking in early January but pinpointing a date
CRDN: Forecast 12-18-06. Nothing announced Monday but still in position to make us money.
CTSH: 2-9-07
DRI: Researching the date. Got some e coli and sold back through the 50 day EMA. Holding at some support at 40, trying to recover. A start.
FDX: Forecast 12-20-06. Hanging on at the 50 day EMA, but that is about all.
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07. Pretty ugly fall this month. Trying to hold above the 200 day SMA but the pattern is rather crappy right now.
GPRO: Researching the date.
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07. Testing that solid move off the 50 day EMA. Will watch it this week and see if it will give us an entry point.
PLCE: Forecast mid-February
STT: Tentatively set for mid-December. No split but surging higher.
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
WWW: Forecast 1-2-07
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/19/2006
JCP (J.C. Penney--$80.07; +0.20; optionable): Department stores
BACKGROUND: No splits in JCP's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcp.html
STATUS: After a solid breakout from a 4 month base in early October and a run to 82, JCP is taking a breather, working laterally the past 6 weeks, forming a double bottom with handle base. It rallied last week then faded to test the 18 day EMA. It tested lower Tuesday and then rebounded to close positive. Nice set up for the next leg higher and want to see that kind of volume we saw Thursday as it bounced toward the breakout. Nice hold Thursday that has set that breakout move.
Volume: 2.11M Avg Volume: 2.674M
BUY POINT: $80.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$93.95 Stop=$77.89
POSITION: JCP EP - May $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcp.html
Play Date: 12/19/2006
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$51.22; +0.27; optionable): Advanced positioning products for commercial and government users
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Test breakout. TRMB broke higher last week on solid trade, clearing a 16 week reverse head and shoulders pattern, readying for a move to a new all-time high. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying, setting up the breakout and run to that new high. Strong money flow is a good complement, leading higher. After this lower volume test it will be ready to resume the move.
Volume: 327.616K Avg Volume: 427.277K
BUY POINT: $51.65 Volume=500K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.88
POSITION: TUH EJ - May $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/16/2006
BPO (Brookfield Properties--$38.44; -0.04; no options): Property management. Forecast early February.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-11-05 at $37.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bpo.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still holding the 50 day EMA, tapping it on the Tuesday low and recovering to close flat. Volume exploded on the test. When a stock shows this kind of volume at the 50 day EMA and does not move, that tells you the buyers are stepping in and stopping the selling, ready to support their stock and send it higher. We are ready to move in as it does. To recap: Nice breakout in late August from a 5 month cup with handle base and bouncing up the 50 day EMA since. This is its third test of that key support level (38.07), showing a pair of tight dojis to end last week. Looking for it to hold at this level and deliver a strong volume surge as it rebounds through the 10 day EMA. Nice strength, solid momentum on this continuing breakout move.
Volume: 2.74M Avg Volume: 515.418K
BUY POINT: $39.25 Volume=695K Target=$46.75 Stop=$37.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bpo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/18/2006
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$27.11; -0.32; optionable): Materials and products for precision use in medical, military, aerospace, security, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Reached down to the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low and rebounded on low volume. Nice test, gets it out of the way for us. Now it can continue the move higher. To recap: Some nice volume the past three sessions as IIVI jumps off a test of the 50 day EMA in its 10 week base. Used the 50 day EMA as support on the lows as it consolidated the breakout from a summertime base; good stepping stones for the breakout to a new all-time high. Excellent action and looking to take some positions on a continued strong move and then more on a successful test. Leader in its sector.
Volume: 162.945K Avg Volume: 260.317K
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=270K Target=$32.98 Stop=$26.22
POSITION: JIU DE - Apr. $25c (72 delta) 7/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iivi.html
Play Date: 12/18/2006
SYK (Stryker--$55.33; +0.20; optionable): Medical instruments (orthopedic products)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Moved higher Tuesday but on continued light, below average volume. Nice test, ready to make the move. To recap: SYK is fading modestly to test last week's breakout from a short 6 week cup with handle base that is part of a much larger 17 month double bottom with handle base. Strong volume on the breakout move and then lower trade the pat two sessions as it works laterally over the 10 day EMA (54.59), refusing to give up the gains. May wait for the 10 day EMA to rise to meet it; that is often the thing that sends a stock higher once more. Excellent leader in excellent shape to continue the move higher.
Volume: 1.117M Avg Volume: 1.309M
BUY POINT: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$63.95 Stop=$54.05
POSITION: SYK CK - Mar. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 12/05/2006
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$23.47; +0.09; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still testing the 18 day EMA, undercutting it Tuesday but then rebounding to hold that support on the close. Still in the shakeout and still setting up to follow that surging money flow higher
Volume: 2.809M Avg Volume: 3.808M
BUY POINT: $24.75 Volume=400K Target=$29.95 Stop=$22.98
POSITION: URQ CX - Mar. $22.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
CONTINUING LEADERS:
Play Date: 12/16/2006
BA (Boeing--$90.17; +0.61; optionable): Airplanes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ba.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Sold to the 18 day EMA Monday, then gapped lower Tuesday only to recover and post a gain. Still setting up in the lateral consolidation for the next leg higher. Liked that strong volume last Friday, and want to see for of that as it resumes the move. To recap: BA has formed a 4 week ascending triangle that is consolidating the strong November breakout and run higher to 92. That move took it out of a 6 month base, airing it out a bit, so to speak. It is making higher lows along the 18 day EMA (89.25) as it bumps up into the 91 to 92 range that is the top of the pattern. Strongest volume of the month Friday as it continued the last bounce off the 18 day EMA. It was expiration, but some large caps were under accumulation. Looking to move in as BA continues higher on volume and clears the closing highs short term downtrend in this pattern. BA is a strong stock that has reached that $90 level that often is just a stopover on the way to 100. We are looking to grab onto that move.
Volume: 2.625M Avg Volume: 4.528M
BUY POINT: $91.05 Volume=6.5M Target=$100.00 Stop=$89.22
POSITION: BA ER - May $90c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ba.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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