|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: FMD; INFY; SVVS; TALX; VSEA
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/26/2006
ANST (Ansoft--$28.02; +0.47; optionable): Automation software for technology industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at ANST as it has set up once again for a breakout to a new all-time high. Solid 11 week base has formed after breaking out to a new high in late August. Nice test of the 50 day EMA (26.36) last week intraday and then a solid recovery. Tuesday it was bumping up against the breakout point in the base. Good volume off the 50 day EMA shows the money is there to support it. Looking for a bit more upside volume as it makes the move. Looking solid.
Volume: 151.598K Avg Volume: 237.038K
BUY POINT: $28.36 Volume=400K Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.97
POSITION: UZD DE - Apr. $25c (73 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Play Date: 12/26/2006
HRS (Harris Corp.--$46.00; +0.50; optionable): Telecom products, systems, etc. to government and commercial customers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. HRS is working through a 10 month base, bumping up against the breakout point the past three sessions where it made tops in August and September. Money flow is leading higher, however, and this time we are looking for a breakout through that level. If it gives it to us on some decent trade it is telling us it is moving higher. A big volume spike Thursday as it bounced higher shows there is some buying behind the move. Just need to be patient and let it show us that break higher.
Volume: 642.7K Avg Volume: 1.085M
BUY POINT: $46.48 Volume=1.6M Target=$54.45 Stop=$44.89
POSITION: HRS EI - May $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrs.html
Play Date: 12/26/2006
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$48.15; +0.76; optionable): Wireless telecom in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. MBT broke out from a 6 month base in early September, and is currently on its second test of that move, coming back the past three weeks to test and hold the 18 day EMA (47.91) after another strong move in late November and early December. Nice lower volume on the pullback shows few sellers, just profit taking after a strong move. Strong sector this foreign telecom, and MBT is a strong stock within the sector. Strong fundamentals to go along with the solid technical pattern. Looking for a solid bounce off this test to move in and capture the next run.
Volume: 252.2K Avg Volume: 1.377M
BUY POINT: $48.38 Volume=1.5M Target=$57.95 Stop=$46.88
POSITION: MBT CI - Mar. $45c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07. Holding over the 50 day EMA, trying to get its feet under it for the next run higher.
BCR: Forecast mid-January
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
BPO: Forecast early February
CLE: Looking in early January but pinpointing a date
CRDN: Tentatively forecast early February
CTSH: 2-9-07. Struggling to hold after falling through the 50 day EMA last Thursday.
DRI: Researching the date. Still trying to get over the stomach ache from the e coli, but holding solid at support at 40.
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07. Still trying to recover, but still making lower highs.
GPRO: Researching the date.
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07
PLCE: Forecast mid-February
RNT: Tentatively forecast third week of January
TRMB: Forecast 1-25-07
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
WCN: Forecast third week of January
WWW: Forecast 1-2-07
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/26/2006
BEC (Beckman Coulter--$60.31; +0.30; optionable): Biomedical testing instrument systems
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10/5/200 at $76.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bec.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BEC has worked laterally the past 7 weeks making higher lows above the 50 day EMA (59.67), building pressure from below for the break higher that continues its breakout move. BEC is consolidating the breakout from a 9 month base, setting up for the next move and a run at the old high. It does not have to make it there, however, to give us a nice gain. Great action in a weaker market the past week, bouncing off of the 50 day EMA. Shows some character.
Volume: 255.7K Avg Volume: 521.808K
BUY POINT: $61.08 Volume=783K Target=$70.45 Stop=$59.48
POSITION: BEC EL - May $60c (117 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bec.html
Play Date: 12/26/2006
MER (Merrill Lynch--$92.23; +1.35; optionable): National brokerage.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-18-00 at $131. Before that a 2:1 split on 4-15-97 at $90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Ascending base. MER has set up a short 6 week pattern for a quick consolidation of a strong October through November run after the breakout from a 20 week cup with handle in early October. A quick tap at the 50 day EMA to start the month and then a steady move with higher lows up the 18 day EMA (90.58) back up to 92.50 where it peaked on the breakout run. Solid price move Tuesday is setting it up for the next breakout though volume was too low. Nice consolidation has set MER up for more upside.
Volume: 2.24M Avg Volume: 4.815M
BUY POINT: $92.52 Volume=7M Target=$103.95 Stop=$89.92
POSITION: MER DR - Apr. $90c (64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mer.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/05/2006
CRDN (Ceradyne--$56.83; +0.65; optionable): Body armor
BACKGROUND: Announced a 3:2 split on 12-20-04 at $53.20. Prior to that a 3:2 split on 3-11-04 at $34.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Massing for the breakout after CRDN gapped higher on Friday on rising though still below average volume. Opened lower Tuesday but then recovered for a gain though on microscopic volume. Strong money flow is leading nicely higher. Ready to move in as it continues upside. To recap: Still working on a very nice, low volume handle to its 9 month base. Working laterally over the 18 day EMA (54.84) last week before the ump higher, and ready to make the breakout and run toward a new all-time high. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Just need to see the breakout on some solid volume.
Volume: 248.914K Avg Volume: 827.082K
BUY POINT: New: Move higher from here on better trade (orig. $56.55) Volume=845K Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: AUE CK - Mar. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crdn.html
Play Date: 12/21/2006
RNT (Aaron Rents--$27.96; +0.49; no options): Rent to own for those who just cannot wait for the credit card applications
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-12-04 at $32.60. Before that a 3:2 split on 7-21-03 at $27.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Solid move off the 18 day EMA Tuesday though volume, after a good showing on Fridays doji at that level, was quite low. Nice rebound from low to high, and looking for a continued move higher on a bit better volume to move into the play. To recap: RNT broke higher out of a 7 month double bottom in mid-December, moving up to 29. It has tested this week, coming back to the 18 day EMA on mostly lower volume. Thursday it tapped that level again, and Friday it undercut it just to rebound and recoup its losses on a solid volume. That shows some buyers stepping in. Looking for some continued solid volume as it breaks higher and gives us the entry point.
Volume: 159.9K Avg Volume: 307K
BUY POINT: $28.15 Volume=456K Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rnt.html
Play Date: 12/21/2006
WCN (Waste Connections--$41.52; +0.47; optionable): Waste management
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 5-26-04 at $41.80
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice price move Tuesday as WCN bumps up at the breakout point in its 11 week base. Moving to a new high and just need a bit of volume to show us buyers are moving in. To recap: Nice base on base pattern has set up as WCN works on a 9 week pattern after breaking out of a 6 month double bottom in October. Good action over the 50 day EMA (40.71) on this last base, showing the big buyers support their stock. Volume is edging up. Looking for a high volume breakout to give us the entry point.
Volume: 144.2K Avg Volume: 227.562K
BUY POINT: $41.75 Volume=344K Target=$48.00 Stop=$40.57
POSITION: WCN DH - Apr. $40c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wcn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/21/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$63.37; +0.42; optionable): Chinese travel site
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CTRP gapped lower to the 10 day EMA Friday and then rebounded to post a gain. Monday it gapped higher but could not stretch the move; volume was paltry. Still solid and ready to make the next move higher. To recap: Nice surge for us already on this breakout run, and after a 10 point rise off the 10 day EMA already this month it is testing the 10 day EMA again, coming back to tap it Thursday on low volume and holding that near support to end the week; a leader that is holding during the selling. We want to be ready when it turns back up as it can run like a deer when it gets going. Looking for CTRP to pay for my next trip to the islands.
Volume: 111.313K Avg Volume: 407.903K
BUY POINT: $63.88 Volume=475K Target=$73.48 Stop=$61.22
POSITION: QCT CL - Mar. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 12/18/2006
SYK (Stryker--$55.14; +0.31; optionable): Medical instruments (orthopedic products)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Managed to hold the 10 day EMA on the close Friday (54.89) after undercutting it intraday, and did the same thing Tuesday after gapping lower, this time posting a modest gain. SYK remains in good shape, ready to move higher. Looks solid. To recap: SYK is working laterally to test last week's breakout from a short 6 week cup with handle base that is part of a much larger 17 month double bottom with handle base. Strong volume on the breakout move and then lower trade the as it works laterally over the 10 day EMA, refusing to give up the gains. The 10 day EMA has now risen to meet it and we are looking for that to send SYK higher again. Excellent leader in excellent shape to continue the move higher.
Volume: 424.7K Avg Volume: 1.3M
BUY POINT: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$63.95 Stop=$54.05
POSITION: SYK CK - Mar. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
