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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AKAM; CRAY; IBM; ININ; LEH; MS; PCLN
Strong plays:
1) AMAG: Jumping off the 18 day EMA
2) NITE: Excellent test of the breakout.
3) VIP: Getting some volume as it breaks higher after the test.
4) CTRP: Looks primed to follow the money flow.
5) RATE: Volume is edging higher as it looks to have completed the handle.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 12/27/2006
AMAG (Advanced Magnetics--$59.54; +1.90; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amag.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. AMAG made us some solid money on its prior move as it broke higher from a 7 month ascending base. Strong breakout and run from late October through November. It peaked at 65 and then tested back the past three weeks. It looks to have bottomed Friday and rallied Wednesday on rising volume. Money flow is running higher ahead of price, and ready to move in as AMAG cleared the late November high as it heads toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 215.932K Avg Volume: 398.381K
BUY POINT: $60.11 Volume=425K Target=$71.95 Stop=$57.88
POSITION: AVM EL - May $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amag.html
Play Date: 12/27/2006
MRVC (MRV Communications--$3.59; +0.15; optionable): Telecom equipment and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid average volume Wednesday (a rarity) as MRVC jumped higher off the 50 day EMA (3.39) after testing that level on the Tuesday low. Money flow is leading the way higher; after the test of the 50 day EMA it looks ready to follow it up.
Volume: 1.324M Avg Volume: 1.305M
BUY POINT: $3.72 Volume=2M Target=$4.78 Stop=$3.46
POSITION: MQU CZ - Mar. $2.50c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvc.html
Play Date: 12/27/2006
NITE (Knight Trading--$19.77; +0.50; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nite.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Starting higher on rising volume (though still well below average) after showing a nice, tight doji at the 10 day EMA on Tuesday. Nice volume as it broke higher out of its 8 week double bottom with handle base two weeks back, followed by the lateral move along the 10 day EMA. Financials are a leading group and NITE is ready for a new 5 year high.
Volume: 818.633K Avg Volume: 1.498M
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=2M Target=$24.00 Stop=$18.95
POSITION: QTN DD - Apr. $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nite.html
Play Date: 12/27/2006
VIP (Vimple Communication--$79.70; +2.19; optionable): Russian, Ukrainian, etc. wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. This entire group is moving, and Wednesday VIP jumped off the 18 day EMA (76.91) on rising, near average volume after a two week lateral move. This looks to be the start of the next leg in the run that started in late August as VIP broke out from a 14 week base. Can really move when it gets going, and Wednesday was a good start.
Volume: 640K Avg Volume: 727.573K
BUY POINT: $80.25 Volume=800K Target=$95.96 Stop=$76.88
POSITION: VIQ DP - Apr. $80c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vip.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/26/2006
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$27.12; +0.44; optionable): Chinese cancer treatment devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Bounced higher Wednesday on rising, almost average trade (not bad for this market), closing off its highs. Still set up well to make the move. To recap: CMED has formed a nice little 7 week base using the 200 day SMA (23.97) as support for the two legs. This base formed after CMED rallied off the bottom of a 12 month base in September. After that initial rally it paused to rest, forming the current base. Strong volume last week as it rallied off the 200 day SMA, and now a low volume lateral move. May take another session or two to complete the handle, but with money flow shooting higher ahead of price we anticipate CMED will soon make the breakout and continue the rally off the bottom of the pattern.
Volume: 551.329K Avg Volume: 605.072K
BUY POINT: $27.34 Volume=943K Target=$32.88 Stop=$25.85
POSITION: QCY FE - June $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmed.html
Play Date: 12/21/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$63.72; +0.35; optionable): Chinese travel site
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working up the 10 day EMA (62.33) in a two week lateral move, ready to continue the breakout move. Just needs to show the break away move and continue the run out of its 4.5 month double bottom base.
Volume: 161.633K Avg Volume: 398.073K
BUY POINT: $63.88 Volume=475K Target=$73.48 Stop=$61.22
POSITION: QCT CL - Mar. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 12/16/2006
NTAP (Network Appliance--$39.86; -0.10; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntap.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Still working on a higher low at the 18 day EMA (39.79). Nice 10 week pattern on the heels of a 20 week reverse head and shoulders pattern; like these base on base patterns as they set up great breakouts. Solid money flow continues leading higher.
Volume: 1.807M Avg Volume: 3.392M
BUY POINT: $41.45 Volume=5M Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.45
POSITION: NUL CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntap.html
Play Date: 12/11/2006
RATE (Bankrate--$38.48; +0.09; optionable): Internet based consumer banking marketplace
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RATE looks to have finally finished its handle, starting back up the past two sessions on rising volume after a week moving laterally at support at 37.50. This is part of a 8 month base formed after a strong run in 2005 and Q1 2006. Needed a rest to set up for the next run and this base is it. Now we just need to see the break higher.
Volume: 258.158K Avg Volume: 356.278K
BUY POINT: $39.15 Volume=495K Target=$47.45 Stop=$36.41
POSITION: QIB EH - May $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rate.html
Play Date: 12/26/2006
USM (U.S. Cellular--$69.40; +0.95; optionable): US wireless telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usm.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. USM jumped off the 18 day EMA (68.43) Wednesday, but volume was so low we held of entering as it rallied to 69.93 on the high. Still set up well to make the move. Just add volume. To recap: USM is in the second test of the 18 day EMA following the early November breakout from a 24 week cup base. Solid volume on the breakout move with nice lower volume on the fade back to the 18 day EMA the past two weeks. Nice hold during all of the market selling, setting it up for the next run higher. Still 2 to 3 more bounces up the 18 day EMA ahead of it after this breakout.
Volume: 36.4K Avg Volume: 100K
BUY POINT: $69.32 Volume=150K Target=$79.75 Stop=$67.94
POSITION: USM EM - May $65c (77 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/usm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/26/2006
BBY (Best Buy--$49.64; +0.41; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Put. Rebounded back up Wednesday, tapping at the 10 day EMA (49.99) on the high. This rebound gives us a good run at the downside entry as BBY turns back over at the 10 day EMA. Another failure there is a sign of weakness. To recap: Looking at BBY again now that the holiday sales season is over and BBY has rebounded from that initial sell off two weeks back when it said margins on sales of flat screens was not as good as hoped. It recovered back to the 10 day EMA on Friday then started back down Tuesday, though volume was lower and still well below average. Despite the low volume we anticipate BBY is going to continue to sag lower. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 4.248M Avg Volume: 5.652M
BUY POINT: $49.21 Volume=5.5M Target=$46.88 Stop=$50.09
POSITION: BBY NJ - Feb. $50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bby.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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