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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BPO; IIVI
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/28/2006
BAM (Brookfield Asset Management--$47.88; +0.72; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bam.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BAM broke out from a 6 month ascending base in mid-November and rallied to 50 on the high in early December. After that run it pulled back to test, coming back to the 50 day EMA (46.49) the past we, showing a nice tight doji Tuesday just above that level. Volume surged back to above average levels Wednesday and Thursday, and BAM jumped off the 50 day on that strong trade. Nice test, nice bounce, and looking for a nice run higher once again.
Volume: 775.4K Avg Volume: 483.828K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=500K Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.48
POSITION: BAM FJ - Jun $50c (52 delta) or BAM CI - Mar. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bam.html
Play Date: 12/28/2006
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$33.83; +0.43; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CBG made us some decent money on its last run in late October and November after breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. After a solid run it took a break, forming the current 5 week lateral move above the 18 day EMA (32.80). It jumped off that level the past three sessions, bumping at the top of the range Thursday. Volume remains low, but it is in solid shape for a breakout to continue the run higher. May come back one more time to make a higher low before making the breakout. Looks solid with relative strength ready to make the breakout with the stock.
Volume: 1.135M Avg Volume: 2.615M
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=3.9M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.72
POSITION: CBG FF - June $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbg.html
Play Date: 12/28/2006
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$56.25; +1.02; optionable): GPS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume was up Thursday as GRMN started the breakout from its 6 month base making higher lows below a constant top at 55. Solid volume two weeks back as it rallied up to the breakout point and then trade dropped off as it shifted laterally, preparing for the break higher. It made that move Thursday, moving to a new all-time high. Looking to step in as it continues the move.
Volume: 2.681M Avg Volume: 2.981M
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=4.5M Target=$66.45 Stop=$54.48
POSITION: GQR DK - Apr. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 12/28/2006
INAP (Internap Network--$19.92; -0.27; optionable): Internet connectivity for businesses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inap.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume has edged higher the past two sessions as INAP continues working in its three week lateral move over the 18 day EMA (19.55). This move consolidates a solid move from October through November after breaking out from an 18 week cup with handle base. Nice pattern, breakout, and initial run, and is now just about ready for the next move. Thursday it tapped down at the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded to recoup some of its losses. Just going to let it show us the break higher on rising trade to start the play.
Volume: 412.803K Avg Volume: 639.194K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=800K Target=$24.45 Stop=$19.31
POSITION: IIP DD - Apr. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/inap.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07.
BCR: Forecast mid-January
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
BEC: Tentatively forecast first week of January
BPO: Forecast early February
CLE: Looking in early January but pinpointing a date
CRDN: Tentatively forecast early February
CTSH: 2-9-07. Still struggling to hold after falling through the 50 day EMA a week back
DRI: Researching the date
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07. Tried to move through the 50 day EMA but thus far failing.
GPRO: Researching the date.
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07
PLCE: Forecast mid-February
RNT: Tentatively forecast third week of January
TRMB: Forecast 1-25-07
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
WCN: Forecast third week of January
WWW: Forecast 1-2-07
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/26/2006
BEC (Beckman Coulter--$60.45; +0.05; optionable): Biomedical testing instrument systems
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10/5/200 at $76.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bec.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice volume jump Wednesday as BEC continued to hug the 10 and 18 day EMA. Thursday volume was nowhere to be found as BEC showed a doji at that level. Looks might interesting here. Would be more interesting if it showed us a strong upside break on some volume. To recap: BEC has worked laterally the past 7 weeks making higher lows above the 50 day EMA (59.67), building pressure from below for the break higher that continues its breakout move. BEC is consolidating the breakout from a 9 month base, setting up for the next move and a run at the old high. It does not have to make it there, however, to give us a nice gain. Great action in a weaker market the past week, bouncing off of the 50 day EMA. Shows some character.
Volume: 228.5K Avg Volume: 530.442K
BUY POINT: $61.08 Volume=783K Target=$70.45 Stop=$59.48
POSITION: BEC EL - May $60c (117 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bec.html
Play Date: 12/16/2006
WWW (Wolverine World Wide--$29.24; +0.25; optionable): Footwear and accessories. Forecast 1-2-07
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-15-04 at $31.10.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/www.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Bouncing off the 50 day EMA (28.33) this week as volume starts to edge higher. Like what we are seeing but still needs to show the breakout move. To recap: WWW broke higher in late November on rising volume, clearing an 8 week trading range above the 50 day EMA. It has spent this month testing, trying to hold the 18 day EMA but slipping back to the 50 day EMA once more. Ready to move in as it shows the breakout.
Volume: 187.9K Avg Volume: 333.2K
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=438K Target=$35.48 Stop=$28.77
POSITION: WWW CF - Mar. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/www.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/21/2006
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$63.40; -0.32; optionable): Chinese travel site
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice low volume doji Thursday as CTRP continues its lateral move over the 10 day EMA (62.52), the latter rising to meet the price. When it gets there it will likely send it higher. To recap: Nice surge for us already on this breakout run, and after a 10 point rise off the 10 day EMA already this month it is testing the 10 day EMA again, coming back to tap it Thursday on low volume and holding that near support to end the week; a leader that is holding during the selling. We want to be ready when it turns back up as it can run like a deer when it gets going. Looking for CTRP to pay for my next trip to the islands.
Volume: 103.888K Avg Volume: 385.472K
BUY POINT: $63.88 Volume=475K Target=$73.48 Stop=$61.22
POSITION: QCT CL - Mar. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 12/18/2006
EZPW (Ezcorp--$16.63; +0.13; optionable): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ezpw.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice price bump Thursday, but volume did not move with it. Still very nice test of the 18 day EMA after breaking out from a 5 month cup with handle base. Just looking for some trade.
Volume: 453.503K Avg Volume: 1.503M
BUY POINT: $16.65 Volume=2M Target=$19.98 Stop=$15.66
POSITION: ULP CC - Mar. $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ezpw.html
Play Date: 12/20/2006
HCP (Health Care Properties--$36.30; +0.15; optionable): Healthcare facility REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. No volume yet, but looking solid as it tests the breakout from a 2.5 year ascending triangle. Strong surge higher in November, and a nice lateral move this month over the 18 day EMA. Looking for some volume as it breaks higher.
Volume: 777.8K Avg Volume: 1.432M
BUY POINT: $36.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$43.85 Stop=$35.32
POSITION: HCP DG - Apr. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcp.html
Play Date: 12/18/2006
SYK (Stryker--$55.45; +0.12; optionable): Medical instruments (orthopedic products)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally at the 10 day EMA, showing a nice tight doji at that level Thursday, continuing the two week range. Looks ripe; needs to make the move. To recap: SYK is working laterally to test last week's breakout from a short 6 week cup with handle base that is part of a much larger 17 month double bottom with handle base. Strong volume on the breakout move and then lower trade the as it works laterally over the 10 day EMA, refusing to give up the gains. The 10 day EMA has now risen to meet it and we are looking for that to send SYK higher again. Excellent leader in excellent shape to continue the move higher.
Volume: 592.2K Avg Volume: 1.271M
BUY POINT: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$63.95 Stop=$54.05
POSITION: SYK CK - Mar. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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