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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/03/2007
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$53.12; -0.47; optionable): Internet services for delivery of content and business processes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. We exited AKAM last week as it weakened at the end of the year after leading tech stocks in 2006. We expected it to come back and test the 50 day EMA (50.55) and it did that Wednesday, tapping at the 50 day on the low and rebounding. It may still come back to snug up to the 50 day EMA before advancing, but if it rebounds sharply here over the 10 day EMA (53.52) we will look at new positions as this leader reloads after a test of a key support level.
Volume: 2.288M Avg Volume: 5.088M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $52.65. Over 10 day EMA: 53.65. Volume=7.6M Target=$60.75 Stop=$50.42
POSITION: UMU EJ - May $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 01/03/2007
JSDA (Jones Soda--$12.07; -0.23; no options): Soft drinks (Jones Soda, Jones Naturals)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jsda.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Just over a year old (IPO in November 2005) JSDA just broke out from its first base, a solid 8 month cup with handle, gapping higher in late December. It spent last week testing, and Wednesday it tapped at the 10 day EMA (11.68) on the low and rebounded to recoup half the losses. May come back to snug up a bit closer to the 10 day EMA before it continues the breakout move, but want to be ready here in case it starts right back up given the Wednesday intraday test lower.
Volume: 677.951K Avg Volume: 290.953K
BUY POINT: $12.21 Volume=550K Target=$14.75 Stop=$11.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jsda.html
Play Date: 01/03/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$23.82; +0.19; optionable): Online marketing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. VCLK is making its second test of the early November breakout from a 10 month reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to 25.50 in mid-December and then faded to end the month and the year, holding near the 18 day EMA (23.89) the past couple of weeks as it rests after that breakout took it to a new all-time high. Money flow remains positive overall as VCLK makes this test, and we are just going to be patient and let it finish up and then show us a strong move higher. If it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.896M Avg Volume: 2.306M
BUY POINT: $24.31 Volume=3.5M Target=$29.32 Stop=$23.15
POSITION: QCS FX - June $22.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vclk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/03/2007
PRFT (Perficient--$16.31; -0.10; optionable): e-business solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
STATUS: Put. After a good run through October, PRFT continued higher into November, but the move was choppy. It peaked just over 19 and then fell back to the 50 day EMA (16.78). That formed a head and shoulders, and in mid-December it broke lower, diving down trhough that support level. It spent the end of December rebounding and Wednesday gapped up to the 50 day EMA to start the session. Alas it could not hold the move and rolled over on rising, average trade. Money flow continues to dive lower, and this test of the 50 day looks like the kiss goodbye as PRFT continues the breakdown from the distribution pattern. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 453.955K Avg Volume: 528.349K
BUY POINT: $16.11 Volume=525K Target=$14.85 Stop=$16.71
POSITION: UTJ NW - Feb. $17.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prft.html
Play Date: 01/03/2007
TNL (Technitrol--$23.92; +0.12; optionable): Precision engineered electronic components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tnl.html
STATUS: Put. TNL peaked in October, forming the head to a 3.5 month head and shoulders distribution pattern. It tried to hold the 200 day SMA (25.54) in December but it gave way and consummated the pattern to the downside. After that tumble it clawed back up last week, tapping at the 10 day EMA (24.34) on the Wednesday intraday high. It closed off that high, showing a tombstone doji; the name says it all. Money flow remains in the toilet and looking for TNL to fall back and resume the trend lower off this doji. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 506.6K Avg Volume: 423.716K
BUY POINT: $23.75 Volume=540K Target=$22.00 Stop=$24.41
POSITION: TNL NE - Feb. $25p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tnl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/28/2006
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$33.65; +0.45; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice lateral move continues above the 10 day EMA (33.16) as CBG consolidates the strong late October and November move. Nice action, making a higher low at the 10 day EMA. Just needs to show us the break higher. To recap: CBG made us some decent money on its last run in late October and November after breaking out from a 6 month cup with handle base. After a solid run it took a break, forming the current 5 week lateral move above the 18 day EMA. It jumped off that level last week, bumping at the top of the range last Thursday. Volume remains low, but it is in solid shape for a breakout to continue the run higher. May come back one more time to make a higher low before making the breakout. Looks solid with relative strength ready to make the breakout with the stock.
Volume: 1.918M Avg Volume: 2.608M
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=3.9M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.72
POSITION: CBG FF - June $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbg.html
Play Date: 12/27/2006
MRVC (MRV Communications--$3.55; +0.01; optionable): Telecom equipment and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle, sliding laterally all last week along the 10 and 18 day EMA. Volume started higher Friday and was solid again Wednesday as MRVC holds a higher low and tries to take some ground toward a breakout. Still set up well, just needs to show the move. To recap: Solid average volume last week (a rarity) as MRVC jumped higher off the 50 day EMA (3.37) Money flow is leading the way higher; after the test of the 50 day EMA it looks ready to follow it up.
Volume: 1.433M Avg Volume: 1.267M
BUY POINT: $3.72 Volume=2M Target=$4.78 Stop=$3.46
POSITION: MQU CZ - Mar. $2.50c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvc.html
Play Date: 12/27/2006
NITE (Knight Trading--$19.22; +0.05; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nite.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing the 18 day EMA (19.13) on Wednesday after coming back to that level to end 2006. Still in a very nice test and looking for it to continue the breakout when the financials reassert themselves as leaders here in early 2007. To recap: Starting higher on rising volume (though still well below average) after showing a nice, tight doji at the 10 day EMA on Tuesday. Nice volume as it broke higher out of its 8 week double bottom with handle base two weeks back, followed by the lateral move along the 10 day EMA. Financials are a leading group and NITE is ready for a new 5 year high.
Volume: 1.204M Avg Volume: 1.441M
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=2M Target=$24.00 Stop=$18.95
POSITION: QTN DD - Apr. $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nite.html
Play Date: 12/16/2006
NTAP (Network Appliance--$39.95; +0.67; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntap.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NTAP continues moving laterally in its 6 week test after the November breakout from its 5 month reverse head and shoulders base. Tapped the 50 day EMA (38.83) on the Wednesday low, and that helped generate some solid volume as it rebounded for a gain. Money flow is jumping higher ahead of price once more, and we are ready to move in as NTAP continues its break higher. After a rest it looks as if it is ready.
Volume: 5.747M Avg Volume: 3.342M
BUY POINT: $41.45 Volume=5M Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.45
POSITION: NUL CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntap.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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