us stock market, stock split

Begin Part 2 of 3

BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below as best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Pre-Announcements AROW, RYL and SONC; Continuing Candidates APPB and THC; and Post-Split CHBS.

MARKET FAVORITES BEST PLAYS: WIND made a strong move today and could be in for more.
1) XLNX - Nice test of its breakout
2) SEBL - Back again after a rest
3) MXIM - A short consolidation that could lead to a big move

XLNX (Xilinx--$44.93; +0.31; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: XLNX made a nice breakout last week, making a two day run that took it over its December highs. It reached up to 47 before starting a pullback, one that tested its 10 day MVA (42.70) at its lows the last two sessions, but which recovered to close from that level each day. Volume has dipped on the pullback, and today XLNX showed a loose 'star' doji on reduced volume of 8.36 million (average 8.47 million). Looking for a strong move with the semis, watching an initial target of 52 (with the April-June highs).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 46 on increased volume. Stop: 42.89 (7%). Over recent high: 47.12 on increased volume. Stop: 43.82 (7%).
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (XLQ CH). Over recent high: Stock and/or March $45 calls to buy (ANQ CI).

SEBL (Siebel Systems--$33.30; +0.81; optionable): Application software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: SEBL made a strong move over its 200 day MVA (31.21) last week, a level it failed to take out on its strong December move. After gapping up to 34.25 after the move, it has pulled back a bit, but has given up gains only grudgingly, tapping 32 twice at its low. Today SEBL bounced up slightly, closing with a loose doji on below average volume (16.4 million; average 17.5 million). SEBL is strong, and we will look for it to take out its recent high. Target: 40.
BUY POINT: 34.37 on above average volume. Stop: 32 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (SGQ BF).

MXIM (Maxim--$58.82; +1.02; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: MXIM broke from a cup with handle in early December, but a test of that level turned into a test of the 50 day MVA (53.65). From that support, it made a nice bounce last week, stopping short of its breakout high of 62.67 before turning laterally. It pulled back but held the 10 day MVA (56.75), today turning back up on increased volume (5.56 million; average 5.5 million). It has hit up to 60 the last few sessions, pulling back from that level again today to close. We will see if it can move over that level on stronger volume and take out its breakout high. If it can, targeting 70.
BUY POINT: Over 60.24 on volume of 6 million. Stop: 56.02 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (XIQ BK).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
1) EXPD - Testing the breakout
2) GNSS - Waiting for a breakout
3) PII - Trying to breakout
4) DHR - Nice test of the move
5) DRI - Could be ready to bounce back up

EXPD (Expeditors International--$59.75; +0.55; optionable): Air delivery & freight. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-6-99 at a stock price of $62.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After a solid move up in a December, EXPD formed a pennant handle to its cup (dating back to June, all-time of 65.92), and Friday made a breakout. It was a good move, but it has come back to test it right away, not always our favorite action. However, it is behaving very well on the test, dipping back on lower volume and holding its prior pattern highs 59 and its 10 day MVA (58). We are looking for the stock to take out its breakout high, with solid volume stepping back in to continue the breakout move. There is some resistance from July highs (62.26), but we are targeting 66 on a strong move.
BUY POINT: Over 60.14 on above average volume. Stop: 56.04.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (URP BK - under 100 open interest. Next month out is May, with very low open interest).

GNSS (Genesis Microchip--$69.55; +1.54; optionable): Semiconductor. NEW INFORMATION Forecast to announce a split with earnings, on January 17 after the close.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnss.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that GNSS has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-20-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: GNSS continues in a nice pennant, today moving back up after a test of its 10 day MVA (67.74). Volume remained rather low on the session (1.2 million; average 2.47 million), but this is still decent action as the stock makes it way along in the pattern, which started in mid-December after GNSS made a very nice run from the 45 level. Looking good, and our next buy point is on a break over the high of 70.91. On that move, a target of 80 initially.
BUY POINT: 71.03 on volume of 3.38 million. Stop: 66.06 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $65 calls to buy (QFE CM).

PII (Polaris Industries--$58.78; +1.63; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-29-02 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/pii.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that PII has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-3-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: PII moved up Tuesday and tried to break from its ascending wedge (formed off a December 18 day MVA bounce, the second after it broke from a double bottom in November), but it closed just short of the buy point. Volume was not there, continuing to be low at 75,400 (average 120,000). Looking for volume to kick in, needing to see strength before we jump in on the move. Strong money flow. Target: 70.
BUY POINT: 59 on volume of 162,000 or higher. Stop: 54.71 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $55 calls to buy (PII CK).

DHR (Danaher--$62.00; -0.30; optionable): Forecast to announce a split in late January in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm a date for earnings release; however, it has declared a quarterly dividend which could make a split announcement less likely.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-6-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $70. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-1-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has enough shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: DHR made a solid move Friday, jumping out of a consolidation after it moved back over its 50 day MVA (59.21). The move was key in that it took out the long-term down trendline (from November 2000) which had been tough resistance of late. The last two sessions DHR has pulled back down to test the move, holding the trendline (currently at 61.20) and moving on low volume (up to 710,800 today; average 1.24 million). If it can hold, DHR faces the early December highs (64.10), made on its break from a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. That breakout failed on a downgrade, but after testing 56 (below the 200 day MVA), DHR has fought back, and we like the strength of the recent move and the orderly test. Looking for a move over the December highs, but there is possible resistance at the May-June highs at 65, and then the high is near 70. Targeting the high.
BUY POINT: 64.22 on volume of 1.7 million. Stop: 60. Aggressive: With volume of 1.5 million, a move over 63. Stop: 60.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $60 calls to buy (DHR CL).

DRI (Darden Restaurants--$37.19; -0.01; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that DRI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-20-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: A very nice breakout Friday, and now DRI is testing the move. The breakout (from a nice handle-type consolidation) was the second solid move for DRI since it broke out of a cup with handle in early December, and although it took out a long-term upper channel trendline, DRI looks like it could continue with a solid move along the steeper trend established the last month. Today DRI showed a doji over the trendline (which is just above the 10 day MVA, at 36.40, and with the former consolidation highs), with volume dipping to 773,100 (average 683,200). Looking for a bounce back up and a continuation of the move, using care to protect profits. Target: 43.
BUY POINT: Over recent high: 38.51 on increased volume. Stop: 35.81 (7%). Aggressive: A move up from here on volume in the 1 million range. Stop: 35.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (DRI DG).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) SYMC - Close to the breakout
2) XRAY - Poised to run
3) CHS - Ready to bounce
4) VAR - Strong move to start a run
5) LIZ - Holding strong after a breakout move

SYMC (Symantec--$69.99; +0.83; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Continues to hold the short-term MVA's (18 day at 67.27), testing that level at its daily lows as it continues to edge up toward the high in its handle (to a cup dating back to May; high 73.50). It has hit up to the 70 level each of the last four sessions, but as long as we see it continue to hold support we are looking for a breakout. Plenty of time before the split. Target: 80.
PLAY: Breakout: 71.12 on volume of 3.8 million (down to 1.68 million today; average 2.5 million), with stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (SYQ BM - low open interest). Stop: 66.14.

XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$50.17; -0.03; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: XRAY reached as high at 52.03 last week on an intraday spike, but after pulling back off of that move it held strong over its 10 day MVA (49.81), showing five consecutive dojis. Volume has been very solid as it moves (down to 346,100 today; average 238,000), and it is looking like a strong move back up is coming. Looking for a bounce back up from here. Strong money flow and buying. Target: If it can take out the high, 57.
PLAY: Over 51 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI). Stop: 48.

CHS (Chico's Fas--$41.31; +0.21; optionable): Retail apparel. Splits 3:2 effective 1-19-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Broke out from a double bottom recently, and after hitting 42 it pulled laterally, holding the 10 day MVA (40.54). It tried a bit of a move last week, but dipped again Monday after hitting a new high at 42.78. Today CHS gapped down to the 10 day, but managed to push back up from there, and volume was noticeably stronger at 719,200 (average 615,400). We are not as concerned with volume on pre-splits as they get close to the split date, but the surge in volume could indicate that we could see a strong run coming soon. The target for existing positions is 46, and on a move we will look at adding more.
PLAY: A move over 42, with stock and/or February $40 calls to buy (CHS BH). Stop: 39.17.

VAR (Varian Medical--$69.80; +2.35; optionable): Scientific & Tech. Instruments. Splits 2:1 effective 1-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: A nice recent move, but after hitting 72 it dropped back to test its 200 day MVA (67.80; just below the 50 day at 68.50) and recent lows. However, after dipping just below that level to close Monday, VAR took off today, moving back over resistance, and showing strong volume on the move (up to 394,200; average 238,000). The move took our the buy point, and we are looking for a continued run going toward the split. The aggressive can catch it from here, and we will carefully look at 72 to see how it holds that level.
PLAY: Over 70, with stock and/or stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (VAR BM - under 100 open interest).

LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$52.99; -0.01; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 1-17-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: After an excellent move last Friday over its November-December highs at 52, LIZ has held steady with consecutive dojis. There was continued massive volume Monday, but with today's action that pulled back to 592,800 (average 506,000). Off of the dojis we could get a test back toward 52, and if so we can look for that to hold and then catch a run back up. However, for now we will see if it can hold up and make another move, watching the stock's high of 54.95.
PLAY: A move over 53.35, with stock and/or April $50 calls to buy (LIZ DJ).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) BBBY - Looking for a strong move

BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$34.52; +0.37; optionable): Forecast to announce a split during the market hours on 12-20-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-13-00 with a board meeting. The stock price of $39. The shareholder meeting was on 6-28-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Holding in an ascending wedge, but might need to test back in the pattern. It moved up again today, tapping up to 34.75, but volume was again low (down on the day at 2.5 million; average 3.7 million). The stock formed the current pattern after a move out of a cup with handle, and we are looking for it to continue the strength with another breakout, perhaps after testing back to the 18 day MVA (33.37). Target: 41.
BUY POINT: Over 35.70 on volume of 5 million. Stop: 33.20.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (BHQ BF).

POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) CACI - Holding support for a move
2) CBH - Testing the breakout

CACI (Caci Int'l--$41.45; -0.53; optionable): Technical Services. Split 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: Since its solid move going into the split, CACI has been somewhat erratic, but holding support at its 18 day MVA (40.04) as it moves in a lateral range. We were looking for a move Monday after a high volume recovery from its intraday low on Friday, but after a bounce up it could not manage more, showing a doji before testing back to its 10 day MVA (40.65) today. We are looking for it hold and make a move over the pattern high at 43.32. If it can take out the high, targeting 50.
PLAY: Breakout: 43.44 on minimum volume of 600,000 (average 414,800; today down to 332,000), with stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (KFQ CH).

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$40.19; +0.08; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: Made a great move Friday, breaking out to a new high on huge volume (there was news that CBH was added to the S&P 400 midcap index). The stock slowed down, but has held on well, dipping back slightly as volume eases off. Today CBH hit down to 39.81 (prior pattern high 39.60) before recovering for a doji, moving on reduced volume of 246,100 (average 217,200). It could still test the pattern high again, but we are looking for a strong move from here, targeting 45 initially.
PLAY: Over 40.63 on increased volume, with stock and/or March $37.50 calls to buy (CBH CU). Stop: 37.90.

****
REMAINING PLAYS:
****
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

DIAN ($53.85; +0.55): Forecast to announce a split in 1-17-02 with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date, and it has taken a big drop on news that torpedoed the sector. Holding the 50 day MVA (52.29), making a bit of a bounce the last couple of sessions. After the hard fall, we will see if it can hold and then get back into shape getting closer to the forecast date. Good stocks should jump up off of the 50 day MVA, and if it gets the volume surge on the move, it could give us a nice run back up to 60.

EDS ($65.98; -0.95): We are researching a date. Tanked through the 50 day (67.13) last week, but a move back on that level did not hold, and it fell back today. It hit the aggressive put buy point, although volume was not there (2.25 million; average 31.4 million). Still a buy if we get a stronger drop through 65.50, targeting the 200 day MVA (62.36), with February $70 puts to buy (EDS NN).

BMS ($50.04; -0.09): We are researching a date in January. After the weak breakout in early December, BMS has dipped back, holding its 50 day (48.56) but the move back up has been weak, currently holding over the short-term MVA's (49.67). We will see it can hold and make a move on its high.

BRL ($78.10; +1.26): Researching a split date. Has pulled back to test the 50 day MVA (76.48), pushing back up from that level today but closing just under the 10 day (78.22). Volume continued to be very light, and for aggressive positions we are looking at a move over 80 on above average volume (1 million; today down to 420,600), with stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (BRL BO).

MI ($61.24; -1.26): We are researching a forecast date. After four runs from the 18 day MVA (currently 62.61), MI did what is typical after that many runs, dropping back to the 50 day (61.39). It closed back below that level today, but volume was not heavy so we will see if it can hold up and set up another move.

NDN ($37.48; -0.03): Researching a date. We were looking for a bounce from the 50 day (36.62), but the move did not have strength to make it back over the short-term MVA's (37.85). Does not look like a move is imminent this time around, so we will see if it can hold the 50 day on a drop.

THQI ($50.60; -0.65): Working on a date. Struggling now between the 200 day and 50 day MVA's (49.09 and 52.68). Not set up for much a move at this point.

TRDO ($26.79; +0.54): Working on a date. Rolling up and down in the range of 26-31, but TRDO has been stymied under the 50 day (27.30, with its short-term MVA's). It has held below resistance in this pattern before, so patience is the key. Still looking for a move back over the 50 day on above average volume (303,000; today 97,500), with stock and/or February $25 calls to buy (UNC BE).

WLP ($117.94; -0.16): Working on a date. After the strong move up Friday, WLP quickly reversed its field but held the short-term MVA's (116.84) with a doji today. We will see if it can hold, with the aggressive play on a move to 121.11 on volume of 990,000. The breakout is 123.02 on volume of 990,000, with stock and/or April $115 calls to buy (WLP DC).

XL ($88.41; -0.39): Researching a date. Was tightening up in a lateral consolidation at the 50 day MVA (90.15), but gave it up Monday, dropping and then showing a doji on increased volume. Off of the doji we could see a test of the 50 day, so we will see how it handles it. There is support at 85 from the October low.

End Part 2 of 3

us stock market
stock split