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Begin Part 3 of 3

Plays: Really like SRCL on this test of the 50 day MVA!

SRCL (Stericycle--$59.07; +1.12): Waste Management. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
STATUS: The drop was steady, but SRCL caught support at the 50 day MVA (56.51) and tried a bounce today (signaling a repurchase of calls sold on the recent drop). Now we like the upside potential from the 50 day MVA given the increased volume. It has made four bounced up its 18 day MVA after breaking out, has tested the 50 day MVA, and now appears ready to move back up. This is one of our favorite entry points.
BUY POINT: For aggressive positions, we can look at a move over 60 (short-term MVA's at 69.57) on increased volume (up today to 341,700; average 289,600)
POSITION: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (URL BK).

JCI (Johnson Controls--$80.14; -1.48; optionable): Auto parts. Forecast to announce a split on 1-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JCI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was 0n 1-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Pulled back through the support of its short-term MVA's (18 day at 80.57), but volume dropped back on the move (365,900; average 383,700), so it is not time to panic. JCI has been moving laterally along those MVA's, and we have been looking for a breakout (the consolidation makes a handle to a v-shaped cup). JCI is now back in its pre-September 11 range, near its early December high of 82.70. We will see if it can stop the drop and make a run. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: 82.82 on volume of 600,000. Stop: 77.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $75 calls to buy (JCI AO - low open interest).

RYL (Ryland Group--$70.40; -0.61; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-24-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/r/ryl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RYL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: RYL broke from a cup with handle in early December, and after testing the move (breakout point 62) proceeded to make a nice run up to a new high of 75.85. It has pulled back the last week to the support of its 18 day MVA (70.34), holding that level the last several sessions, today showing a loose doji on volume of 356,200 (average 344,900). Looking good to hold here and produce another run, starting with a solid bounce. Target on move past the high: 85.
BUY POINT: 72.67 on continued strong volume. Stop: 67.58 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $70 calls to buy (RYL DN).

FDC (First Data--$78.18; +0.91; optionable): NEW INFORMATION: Forecast to announce a split on January 24 before the open, with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Tried a move last week from the 18 day MVA (77.43), but this week it has dropped back and it is now trying to hold that support. It could make a move back to the 50 day MVA (74.27), and it looks like it could be trying to turn over a bit here. For existing positions we will watch carefully for a possible exit if we get a move down. On a test of the 50 day, we will see if it can hold and set up something going toward the forecast. The high is 80.20.
BUY POINT: From here: 80.32 on increased volume. Stop: 74.70 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (FDC BO).

AROW (Arrow Financial--$28.82; -0.43; no options): Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arow.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 9-22-99 at a stock price of $26. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-09-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: AROW is in a large ascending wedge, trying a breakout last week but not making it, hitting a new high (30.25) but pulling back. Today it gapped back, but volume on the session was low at 5300 (average 12,000), and it held to close at the 50 day MVA (28.85). AROW has used the 50 day (or just below it) as support as it moves along in its pattern, so we will see if it can hold and make another move. A bounce would be the first buy point, and we would follow it up toward a breakout of the pattern. Still looks very good, just needs to give us the breakout.
BUY POINT: After holding the 50 day, a move over the 10 day (29.23) on above average volume. Stop: 27.50.
POSITION: Stock.

SONC (Sonic--$35.76; +0.66; optionable): Restaurants. We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-14-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36.69. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-30-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: SONC continues to hold the 18 day MVA (35.37), which is with its upper channel trendline (drawn from mid-2000) and its November breakout high. It has been playing a bit of footsy here, threatening a move to the 50 day (34.04), but today it managed a move up with very strong volume (374,400; average 235,400). With the move up today, we could see a strong bounce, looking for a move up toward the high (late December) of 37.65.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 36 on continued strong volume. Stop: 33.60.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $35 calls to buy (ZSQ CG).

STU (Student Loan--$81.80; +0.05; no options): Researching a date, as it is due for a split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stu.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STU has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: STU has pulled laterally since bouncing up last Thursday from its 10 day MVA (81.12). The stock broke out in a big way in late December (over its April and August tops), and started the current move after testing that move with a nice pullback. With the heavy volume the last couple of sessions (down to 21,600 today; average 12,000), we will see if it can hold up over the 10 day, looking for a possible strong move up. The breakout high is ahead at 83.68, and we are riding positions to see how it handles that, and on a move over it we are targeting 90.
BUY POINT: Over 82.33 on continued strong volume. Stop: 78.
POSITION: Stock.

PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Play:

LUV (Southwest Airlines--$18.85; -0.35; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luv.html
STATUS: LUV has been meandering a bit over its 50 day MVA (18.28; 200 day at 17.81). It has made a nice move back up to it pre-September 11 range, but although it has been consolidating in this range for some time it received a downgrade today from SSB based on valuation. Despite that move, the stock held the short-term MVA's (18.81) after gapping down, closing with a doji. Looks like it will hold on, and we can see if it finally will make a move over the recent high at 20. Could take some time.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 19.24 on above average volume (2.75 million). Stop: 17.89. Breakout: 20.12 on volume of 4.3 million. Stop: 18.71.
POSITION: Stock and/or March $17.50 calls to buy (LUV CW).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

Watchlist:

AZO ($65.29; -0.85): Auto parts continue to show weakness. As it dropped last week we said to exit positions and now AZO dropped through its 50 day (67.13) last Thursday and is moving in a lateral consolidation under that resistance (and at its November consolidation) as volume is falling (down today to 820,100, average 1.42 million). Still looking for a hard drop through 65 on increased above average volume to trigger a put with a target of 60. February $70 puts to buy (AZO NN).

ACS ($105.80; +1.80): The move back up from support (18 day MVA, at 102.78) signaled a repurchase of calls sold on the recent drop. Today ACS showed a decent push up from the 10 day (104.20) as volume rose to 480,100 (average 506,300). However, ACS not in a buy position to the upside, as it is somewhat extended over its upper channel (101), and with the close off the high today (107.02) we could get a test back. We will enjoy the move up but watch with caution. Stocks above the channel can spike higher and then collapse. Just being cautious here but pleased.

FLIR ($42.69; +0.20): Cleared the 50 day (41.27) late last week on low volume and is now testing but holding that support as volume remains below average. It looks like dead meat. A new high and then two more tries to take it out, all on lower volume. The volume did rise, but on the late December selling. It is now struggling at the 50 day simple moving average. Odds are it tanks.

GTK (+$42.98; +0.21): Has dipped back to test the lows in its pennant pattern, breaking below its 50 day (43.12) Monday but holding to close at the recent pattern lows. Volume remained below average, so there is hope. If we get the upside move, the aggressive can look at positions on a strong move (volume of 500,000) over the 10 day (44), with stock and/or February $40 calls to buy. GTK has had trouble at 46, and clearing that level is the real test, then we will see how it handles the high near 47.50.

IGT ($66.72; +0.12): IGT closed with a loose doji just below the 18 day (66.82) today as volume continue to fall to 845,600 (average 1.22 million). With the breach of support we are wary of a further drop (which will stop us out) and for a test of the 50 day at 62.56. If we get a move up from here, the aggressive can play a move over 68 on above average volume, with stock and/or April $65 calls to buy (IGT DM).

SLM ($80.15; +1.00): Head and shoulders with a weak right shoulder, and after its intraday test back to the 200 day (77.67) Friday, SLM is languishing, showing a doji today. Off of the doji it could turn back down, but for any remaining put positions we will be wary of a continued move up.

STJ ($72.09; -0.69): Has been trending up its 50 day (73.44) since early April, and now showing one of its periodic tests through that support. Volume increased sharply today to 750,600 (average 668,900) as STJ showed a loose doji. The aggressive can look for another 50 day bounce (it has made the move from just below that level before), and on a move over the 18 day (74.67), stock and/or April $70 calls to buy (STJ DN).

Plays:

APPB (Applebee's--$35.85; +1.51; optionable): Restaurants. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: After last Friday's strong bounce from the 50 day (33.58) volume has dropped considerably but APPB continues to move toward the recent (mid-December) highs in the 36.50-37 range. Today's gain came on slightly increased volume of 478,000 (average 420,000), but that is still much lower than we saw on the bounce. We will see if this momentum continues and strengthens, or if APPB pulls back from the potential resistance of the recent highs (as often happens after gains on falling volume). Riding positions toward that high, and for additional positions we want to see a solid move over the December closing high on increased above average volume. If the typical pattern holds, it should start testing its 18 day MVA, riding that trend higher, letting it test the 18 day MVA until it makes that fourth bounce. Target: 42.
BUY POINT: 37.01 on increased volume. Stop: 34.42.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (AQB BG).

BBY (Best Buy--$74.76; +0.92; optionable): Retail - Electronics. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-99 with a board meeting. The stock price was $95. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 4-24-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $71. The annual shareholder meeting was 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: BBY made a nice bounce up from 65 in December on positive earnings, but is now struggling with resistance at 75. It tried to clear that level Monday, but fell back to close. Today it made a weaker push up from the 10 day MVA (73.38) but once again it just did not have the necessary strength to clear resistance. We are looking for it to continue to hold support (18 day is at 72.39) while we wait for increased volume to carry a move up over the recent highs. Target on a breakout: 85.
BUY POINT: 76.72 on volume of 4 million (down today to 2.31 million, average 3.22 million). Stop: 71.35 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (BBY CN).

THC (Tenet Healthcare--$61.93; -0.57; optionable): Health Services - Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a stock split in September 1991 in the $45 range. No additional shares will be authorized at the annual shareholder meeting, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Earnings were well-received and last Friday THC gapped way up hit a new high of 63 before pulling back. Since then the stock has held on, today testing back toward the former pattern highs (61 from the late-November early-December range). We will see if the stock continues to hold this level and holds a lateral, handle type consolidation that sets up the next run.
BUY POINT: The breakout buy point in 63.12 on increased, above average volume. Stop: 58.70. If we get a hold of support at 61 on a nice pullback, we can look at positions on a move back up.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $60 calls to buy (THC BL).

TJX (TJX Companies--$40.24; +0.07; optionable): Retail - Discount. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced split on 4-8-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: May be ready for another test. TJX followed last Friday's weak bounce up from the 10 day MVA (39.52) with a 'tombstone' doji today on sharply increased volume of 1.73 million (average 1.21 million), pulling back from a high of 41.15 (just over its upper channel). A topping sign, so we will watch for another drop back, and look for the short-term MVA's (18 day at 39) to provide support, carefully protecting positions from a breach of the 18 day and a test of the 50 day (37.53).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

Watchlist:

FMBI ($28.75; +0.30): Split 5:4 effective 12-17-01. Still showing some volatile price/volume action and some wild intraday ranges and now is struggling to hold the short-term MVA's. FMBI recovered back over its 18 day MVA (28.55) today on increased volume (97,200; average 90,800), but there is not much momentum here though we are aware that this may just be a shakeout to get the doubting Thomas' such as ourselves out. It certainly has that look to it. The buy point is 29.50 on continued strong volume (up to 97,200, average 90,800), with stock.

Play:

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$32.24; +0.04): Retail Apparel. Split 3:2 effective 12-13-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: Pulled back to test its recent breakout, holding the 18 day (31.69), making a slightly stronger push up from that level today as volume increased to 512,900 (average 361,600). We will see if CHBS gives us a bounce here, or if it holds for a bit of consolidation before setting up a move. The breakout high is 35.76.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 33 on increased volume, with stock and/or March $30 calls to buy (URH CF - low open interest).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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