|
|
trend trading stock, stock trading site
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ATHR; HMSY; PPS
Best Plays:
1) AMKR: Another semiconductor in great position to breakout.
2) BSC: Excellent pullback to test the 18 day EMA, showing a doji. Ready to blast higher for us to trade.
3) TEK: Heading lower after a weak rebound to kiss the 50 day EMA goodbye
4) JSDA: Doji at the 10 day EMA after the pullback.
5) TNL: Still struggling below the 10 day EMA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/06/2007
AMKR (Amkor Technology--$9.81; -0.17; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amkr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another semiconductor that is setting up a nice pattern and heading for the breakout. Volume moved higher last week (not an uncommon occurrence after the holiday week) but it did so in the right way, i.e. on a strong Wednesday upside move. It looks to have completed the handle to its 8 month base. Money flow is leading higher and just letting AMKR show us the breakout price and volume move.
Volume: 3.054M Avg Volume: 3.943M
BUY POINT: $10.57 Volume=5.9M Target=$12.98 Stop=$9.95
POSITION: QEL FB - June $10c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amkr.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
BSC (Bear Stearns--$162.32; -0.32; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Broke out in October from a 22 week base and has bounced higher, making two bounces up the 18 day EMA (161.49) as it trends higher. It has come back from 165 the past two weeks, once more tapping at the 18 day EMA last week on the lows, finding support at that level. Looking for yet another bounce up off this level, and we want to take advantage of that move as a nice little trade. A move to the target gives us an 80%ish option gain, but if we get a strong surge for a couple of sessions that then it stalls we will take some interim gain.
Volume: 1.327M Avg Volume: 1.351M
BUY POINT: $162.75 Volume=2M Target=$179.00 Stop=$160.78
POSITION: BSC DM - Apr. $165c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bsc.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$16.44; +0.13; optionable): Software to automate corporate travel & expense management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. CNQR is a small cap but it is also a tech company that has set up a solid base, a 9 month cup with handle. It surged higher Wednesday after it was announced after the last trading session of 2006 that CNQR was going onto the SP600 index. It faded back Thursday and Friday to end the week, but held support at 16 on the Friday intraday low. CNQR sports strong fundamentals growth rates to go along with this nice pattern. Solid money flow. After this test, looking for CNQR to rebound once more on some solid trade. That is when we move in.
Volume: 345.039K Avg Volume: 267.857K
BUY POINT: $16.72 Volume=402K Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.78
POSITION: JCQ EC - May $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnqr.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$469.09; -5.33; optionable)
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. SOX looked strong with NASDAQ on Thursday, coming off the 200 day SMA (462.27) with some vigor. Friday it struggled as semiconductors turned in a mixed performance after MOT's Q4 earnings warning. It rebounded off an intraday tap toward the 200 day, however, to close near the 50 day EMA (469.45). Expecting it to continue back up this week as money moves back toward techs. An aggressive play, but with money flowing toward techs the chips have room to really move when they get started. A run to the target lands a 46% gain with the March options or 60% with the February options though the latter carries a higher level of risk given the closer time to expiration.
BUY POINT: $473.00 Target=$493.00 Stop=$469.21
POSITION: SXX CO - Mar. $475c (50 delta) or SXX BO - Feb. $475c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^soxx.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$40.29; -0.76; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Testing the 50 day EMA (39.32) the past two weeks, forming the bottom of the handle to the 8 month base. Showing some strong volume this week as it started up off this support level, tapping it intraday Friday and rebounding to recoup much of the Friday downside. This base is setting up a breakout to push WFR toward a new all-time high. Strong 10 to 6 accumulation in the base (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying to send it higher.
Volume: 2.901M Avg Volume: 4.047M
BUY POINT: $41.35 Volume=5.5M Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.32
POSITION: WFR DH - Apr. $40c (55 delta) or WFR GH - July $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/06/2007
TEK (Tektronix--$28.76; -0.87; optionable): Products for global communications networks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Put. TEK tried to form a handle in Q4 2006, but it instead turned into a broad top that cracked to the downside in mid-December with a nasty plunge as it reported earnings and warned about the future. It fought back, tapping at the 50 day EMA (29.76) Thursday. Then it turned over Friday and undercut all the lows of the week. Money flow is in the tank, and after this kiss goodbye TEK is ready to follow it lower again. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 778.5K Avg Volume: 601.873K
BUY POINT: $28.54 Volume=610K Target=$27.21 Stop=$29.04
POSITION: TEK NF - Feb. $30p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tek.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
UTEK (Ultratech--$12.51; -0.17; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utek.html
STATUS: Put. After trying to consolidate in a 5 month lateral move along the 50 day EMA (13.20), UTEK broke lower in late December, blasting a hole in the consolidation attempt. It rebounded last week, tapping at the 50 day EMA three times on the intraday high but comein gup short and fading back. Money flow remains weak, and looking for UTEK to break back down and fall through the 10 day EMA (12.43). That will be our cue to move in. A run down to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 440.902K Avg Volume: 261.332K
BUY POINT: $12.37 Volume=375K Target=$11.31 Stop=$12.65
POSITION: UQT NV - Feb. $12.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utek.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/04/2007
BRCM (Broadcom--$32.31; -0.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Received a downgrade Friday, undercutting the 200 and 50 day MA (32.53 and 32.41, respectively) but rebounding by the close to hold the 50 day EMA. It hit some support at 32 on the low and rebounded on strong volume; not a great session, but that rebound was good to see. Still in position to make the move and just looking for the next bounce to move in. To recap: Getting right back after BRCM as it held onto near support and on Thursday jumped off the 200 day SMA that it has tangoed with for the past month. Not huge volume on the Thursday move despite the solid price move; will need to see more volume as it continues back up after this test. Plenty of room to bounce and run higher if there is really money moving into the big techs.
Volume: 5.097M Avg Volume: 15.127M
BUY POINT: $33.78 Volume=17M Target=$42.45 Stop=$32.36
POSITION: RCQ EZ - May $32.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 01/03/2007
JSDA (Jones Soda--$11.73; -0.05; no options): Soft drinks (Jones Soda, Jones Naturals)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jsda.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice doji Friday that held the 10 day EMA (11.70) on the close. Excellent pullback to test the strong break higher. Just need to see the rebound. To recap: Just over a year old (IPO in November 2005) JSDA just broke out from its first base, a solid 8 month cup with handle, gapping higher in late December. It spent last week testing, and Wednesday it tapped at the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded to recoup half the losses. May come back to snug up a bit closer to the 10 day EMA before it continues the breakout move, but want to be ready here in case it starts right back up given the Wednesday intraday test lower.
Volume: 419.652K Avg Volume: 309.61K
BUY POINT: $12.06 Volume=550K Target=$14.75 Stop=$11.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jsda.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/03/2007
PRFT (Perficient--$16.86; -0.22; optionable): e-business solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
STATUS: Put. Bounced back on Thursday but volume dropped off to well below average, and Friday it had a hard time hanging onto the 50 day EMA (16.80), rebounding late to hold that level. Still looks ready to roll over and follow the money lower. To recap: After a good run through October, PRFT continued higher into November, but the move was choppy. It peaked just over 19 and then fell back to the 50 day EMA. That formed a head and shoulders, and in mid-December it broke lower, diving down through that support level. It spent the end of December rebounding and Wednesday gapped up to the 50 day EMA to start the session. Alas it could not hold the move and rolled over on rising, average trade. Money flow continues to dive lower, and this test of the 50 day looks like the kiss goodbye as PRFT continues the breakdown from the distribution pattern. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 513.834K Avg Volume: 526.614K
BUY POINT: $16.48 Volume=525K Target=$14.85 Stop=$16.88
POSITION: UTJ NW - Feb. $17.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prft.html
Play Date: 01/03/2007
TNL (Technitrol--$23.90; -0.14; optionable): Precision engineered electronic components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tnl.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower Friday but then rebounded to try the 10 day EMA (24.21) on the session high. Once gain it could not take out that level and faded modestly to the close. Struggling at that near resistance (the weakest resistance there is) and still looks ready to roll back down. To recap: TNL peaked in October, forming the head to a 3.5 month head and shoulders distribution pattern. It tried to hold the 200 day SMA (25.54) in December but it gave way and consummated the pattern to the downside. After that tumble it clawed back up last week, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday intraday highs. It closed off that high, showing a tombstone doji Wednesday; the name says it all. Money flow remains in the toilet and looking for TNL to fall back and resume the trend lower off this doji. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 581.4K Avg Volume: 427.844K
BUY POINT: $23.75 Volume=540K Target=$22.00 Stop=$24.41
POSITION: TNL NE - Feb. $25p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tnl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trend trading stock
stock trading site
|
