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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BSC; CRAY; FFIV; HCP; HMSY; IBM; LEH; NITE; SYK; WFR
Best Plays:
1) GS: After a rest it is ready to go again.
2) ININ: Starting higher after a short test.
3) KNOT: Great volume off the 50 day EMA
4) JSDA: Still an excellent test of the breakout
5) NITE: Nice volume as it breaks higher of the 50 day EMA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/08/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$203.73; +4.68; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Solid volume Monday as GS started to break higher from a 6 week base formed along the 18 day EMA. A short consolidation move after a nice run from October to late November, this lateral move gave GS a nice rest and it looks as if it has caught its breath based on the strong volume and solid gain off the 18 day EMA on Monday. Looking to move in as GS continues higher. The financials, after a short rest, are back in action.
Volume: 7.563M Avg Volume: 4.886M
BUY POINT: $204.38 Volume=4.9M Target=$225.00 Stop=$197.95
POSITION: GPY DT - Apr. $200c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gs.html
Play Date: 01/08/2007
ININ (Interactive Intelligence--$21.87; +0.87; no options): Business communications automation software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inin.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ININ broke out from a short 7 week base in mid-December and is making its second test of that move, tapping the 18 day EMA last week on the low and holding at the 10 day EMA (20.75). After two days going nowhere it started back up Monday on rising but still slightly below average volume. Nice action from this leader, however, and looking to move in as it continues its break higher. Excellent relative strength and solid money flow.
Volume: 368.515K Avg Volume: 419.644K
BUY POINT: $22.04 Volume=500K Target=$26.75 Stop=$20.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/inin.html
Play Date: 01/08/2007
INWK (Innerworkings, Inc.--$16.41; +0.41; no options): Print procurement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inwk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A new issue in August, INWK rallied from 10 to 18 and then needed a breather. It has come back to the 50 day EMA (16.10), holding that level the past week. Volume has started edging higher as it comes off the 50 day. Looking for some strong volume as it blasts higher to continue its run.
Volume: 301.484K Avg Volume: 299.164K
BUY POINT: $16.68 Volume=400K Target=$19.97 Stop=$15.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/inwk.html
Play Date: 01/08/2007
KNOT (The Knot--$27.02; +0.82; optionable): Online and offline services to the wedding market
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knot.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. This stock is a bit volatile, but it has excellent earnings growth rates, and it continues to trend higher and higher. After a solid run in November to early December it took a breather, coming back to the 50 day EMA (25.56) and making a quick double bottom the past two weeks. Solid volume Monday as it bounced nicely off the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 691.545K Avg Volume: 509.221K
BUY POINT: $27.25 Volume=625K Target=$32.75 Stop=$25.38
POSITION: BQC DE - Apr. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/knot.html
Play Date: 01/08/2007
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$31.59; +0.28; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Another chip that has moved off its lows, broken over the 200 day SMA (31.21), and is now testing that move as the 50 day EMA (31.07) slides up from underneath, ready to make the crossover and blast the stock higher. Volume on MXIM has surged this month, exciting the price bumps the past week. Looking for continued strong trade as MXIM makes a breakaway move higher.
Volume: 5.236M Avg Volume: 4.454M
BUY POINT: $32.22 Volume=6.5M Target=$38.75 Stop=$30.68
POSITION: XIQ EF - May $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxim.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/06/2007
AMKR (Amkor Technology--$10.22; +0.41; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amkr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting higher on rising, but still below average volume, moving toward that breakout from its solid base. Excellent action. To recap: Another semiconductor that is setting up a nice pattern and heading for the breakout. Volume moved higher last week (not an uncommon occurrence after the holiday week) but it did so in the right way, i.e. on a strong Wednesday upside move. It looks to have completed the handle to its 8 month base. Money flow is leading higher and just letting AMKR show us the breakout price and volume move.
Volume: 3.354M Avg Volume: 3.943M
BUY POINT: $10.57 Volume=5.9M Target=$12.98 Stop=$9.95
POSITION: QEL FB - June $10c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amkr.html
Play Date: 01/04/2007
BRCM (Broadcom--$32.31; -0.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Still looking for the breakaway, showing a hammer doji on the 200 day SMA (32.47). It is set up. To recap: Getting right back after BRCM as it held onto near support and on Thursday jumped off the 200 day SMA that it has tangoed with for the past month. Not huge volume on the Thursday move despite the solid price gain; will need to see more volume as it continues back up after this test. Plenty of room to bounce and run higher if there is really money moving into the big techs.
Volume: 5.097M Avg Volume: 15.127M
BUY POINT: $33.78 Volume=17M Target=$42.45 Stop=$32.36
POSITION: RCQ EZ - May $32.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$16.06; -0.38; optionable): Software to automate corporate travel & expense management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Still testing, but another nice tap of the 10 day EMA (15.96) Monday as it readies to make the next break higher. To recap: CNQR is a small cap but it is also a tech company that has set up a solid base, a 9 month cup with handle. It surged higher Wednesday after it was announced after the last trading session of 2006 that CNQR was going onto the SP600 index. It faded back Thursday and Friday to end the week, but held support at 16 on the Friday intraday low. CNQR sports strong fundamentals growth rates to go along with this nice pattern. Solid money flow. After this test, looking for CNQR to rebound once more on some solid trade. That is when we move in.
Volume: 344.416K Avg Volume: 267.857K
BUY POINT: $16.72 Volume=402K Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.78
POSITION: JCQ EC - May $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnqr.html
Play Date: 01/03/2007
JSDA (Jones Soda--$11.67; -0.06; no options): Soft drinks (Jones Soda, Jones Naturals)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jsda.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another doji at the 10 day EMA (11.70) as volume backs off below average, still setting up to continue the breakout. To recap: Just over a year old (IPO in November 2005) JSDA just broke out from its first base, a solid 8 month cup with handle, gapping higher in late December. It spent last week testing, and Wednesday it tapped at the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded to recoup half the losses. May come back to snug up a bit closer to the 10 day EMA before it continues the breakout move, but want to be ready here in case it starts right back up given the Wednesday intraday test lower.
Volume: 295.739K Avg Volume: 309.61K
BUY POINT: $12.06 Volume=550K Target=$14.75 Stop=$11.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jsda.html
Play Date: 12/27/2006
NITE (Knight Trading--$19.58; +0.59; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nite.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up as NITE started higher off the test of the 18 day EMA. Looks to have completed the handle to its 13 week base, ready to break to a 5 year high. Solid money flow is leading the way and the financials are looking solid after a brief respite.
Volume: 1.761M Avg Volume: 1.429M
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=2M Target=$24.00 Stop=$18.95
POSITION: QTN DD - Apr. $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nite.html
Play Date: 12/16/2006
NTAP (Network Appliance--$40.23; +1.16; optionable): Data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntap.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Upgraded and enjoyed a decent session on strong volume, but still in the 6 week lateral move over the 50 day EMA (38.84). Nice money flow is leading higher. A good start, and now we want to see it finish the breakout move. Solid positioning and is getting the momentum.
Volume: 5.273M Avg Volume: 3.444M
BUY POINT: $41.45 Volume=5M Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.45
POSITION: NUL CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntap.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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