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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AAPL; AMAG; AMT; BRCM; CRDN; IBM; MA; URBN
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/09/2007
PCAR (Paccar--$66.23; +0.99; optionable): Big trucks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcar.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong, steady mover. PCAR is in an excellent uptrend, and is just coming off a test of the 50 day EMA (64.14) where it periodically tests during the trend and then bounces up to start the next run. Tuesday PCAR jumped off that level on rising, above average volume and looks to be starting another one of those moves. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.908M Avg Volume: 1.58M
BUY POINT: $66.68 Volume=2.4M Target=$74.95 Stop=$63.94
POSITION: PAQ EM - May $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcar.html
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/09/2007
GME (Gamestop--$56.35; +1.85; optionable): Electronics game stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Now that the holiday season is in the books GME can start to move higher again. Nice breakout in October from a 6.5 month cup with handle base and a solid run higher to 58. It faded back during December to the 50 day EMA (54.42). Volume started jumping late last week as it tested. Strong above average volume Tuesday as it jumped off that support. Strong money flow is leading higher and GME looks ready to follow it.
Volume: 1.563M Avg Volume: 1.303M
BUY POINT: $56.68 Volume=2M Target=$65.45 Stop=$53.95
POSITION: GME DK - Apr. $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 01/09/2007
LRCX (Lam Research--$51.18; -0.10; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. LRCX is trying to make a higher low at the 50 day EMA (51.05) after testing the 90 day MA in late December. Strong volume as it bounced higher to start the year and an easy pullback this week. Money flow is running higher ahead of price, and we are looking for LRCX to follow it higher.
Volume: 3.507M Avg Volume: 3.709M
BUY POINT: $52.45 Volume=5.5M Target=$60.45 Stop=$50.21
POSITION: LMQ FJ - June $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lrcx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07.
BCR: Forecast mid-January
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
BEC: Tentatively forecast first week of January. Not giving a split announcement and starting to struggle too much.
BPO: Forecast early February
CLE: Looking in early January but pinpointing a date. All right, getting better. Moving off the 18 day EMA Tuesday. Could use a bit of trade but getting there.
CRDN: Tentatively forecast early February
CTSH: 2-9-07. Getting better, holding the move and trying to set back up. Not there yet.
DRI: Researching the date
FFIV: Potential split announcement 1-24-07
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07. Slumped down to the 200 day SMA and bounced but looking a bit weaker as it gets back to the 50 day EMA. We will see.
GPRO: Researching the date.
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07
RNT: Tentatively forecast third week of January
TRMB: Forecast 1-25-07
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast third week of January
WWW: Ended the week poorly.
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07. Hanging onto the 200 day SMA after an ugly Thursday drop.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/09/2007
BIDU (Baidu.com--$123.72; +1.77; optionable): Chinese language internet search.
BACKGROUND: No splits in BIDU's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
STATUS: Test breakout. BIDU is in a short 5 week cup with handle base that is acting to consolidate the November breakout and run higher from a 14 week ascending base. Nice, low volume as the current base formed with volume surging back to start the year as it rallied to form the right side of the base. Nice pullback this week to shake out the sellers. Looking to move in as it starts higher on volume. Trade did move higher Tuesday, a positive sign the breakout is coming.
Volume: 2.738M Avg Volume: 2.841M
BUY POINT: $125.22 Volume=4.5M Target=$139.95 Stop=$119.89
POSITION: BDQ FE - June $125c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bidu.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/06/2007
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$25.15; +0.18; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Forecast mid-February.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-15-05 at $25.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume up Tuesday, back above average as VIVO started toward the breakout. Backed off to close well off the high but still very nice pattern and looks ready to move. To recap: A sweet pattern has set up, a base on base over the past 8 months. The current pattern is a 7 week double bottom with handle on the heels of a 6 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. That double base pattern tends to weed out the sellers for explosive breakouts. Indeed, VIVO has bumped against resistance at 25 for a month, crowding that line. Made a higher low at the 18 day EMA (24.67) the past week, and that often precedes the breakout move.
Volume: 173.812K Avg Volume: 146.223K
BUY POINT: $25.44 Volume=220K Target=$29.95 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: ZUG DE - Apr. $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/28/2006
CBG (CB Richard Ellis--$33.97; +0.75; optionable): Property management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbg.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Solid price move but no volume Tuesday as CBG bangs at the top of the breakout from its range yet again. Looking good; just add volume. To recap: Stronger volume Wednesday as CBG crouched for the breakout, but Thursday it could not make the move with the market as volume faded back and it did to, down to the 10 day EMA. Friday it was more of the same. Still in excellent shape to make a higher low and the breakout. Just have to see it. Very solid.
Volume: 1.418M Avg Volume: 2.642M
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=3.9M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.72
POSITION: CBG FF - June $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbg.html
Play Date: 12/21/2006
FRX (Forest Labs--$51.20; +0.71; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid bounce off the 50 day EMA (49.60) Tuesday though volume did not surge with it. Still an excellent 11 week pattern that is begging for some volume to really send it higher. Everyone was commenting about this pattern around the shop.
Volume: 1.796M Avg Volume: 2.272M
BUY POINT: $52.24 Volume=3.5M Target=$59.95 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: FHA EJ - May $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frx.html
Play Date: 12/28/2006
INAP (Internap Network--$20.41; -0.09; optionable): Internet e-commerce networks for businesses, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inap.html
STATUS: Test breakout. INAP is working laterally the past three sessions, tapping the 18 day EMA on the lows and rebounding to close flat. Nice shakeout action that is setting it up for the next breakout to continue its run.
Volume: 442.536K Avg Volume: 634.795K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=800K Target=$24.45 Stop=$19.31
POSITION: IIP DD - Apr. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/inap.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
TJX (TJ Max--$29.27; +0.38; optionable): Discount department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still a solid pattern, bouncing higher Tuesday off the 18 day EMA though no volume moving with it just yet. Have to love the pattern and the accumulation. Would love to love a breakout as well. To recap: Retail is mixed, but TJX is showing excellent action as it flirts with the breakout from an 11 week base that is consolidating its August to November run. Excellent pattern showing excellent 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying here as it rests and sets up for another breakout and another new high. Strong surge Thursday then a give back Friday on lower volume that still held the 10 day EMA on the intraday low. Solid all around and just waiting for the breakout move on strong volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 2.003M Avg Volume: 3.258M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=5.1M Target=$35.85 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: TJX DF - Apr. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tjx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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