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top stock pick, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CROX; INFY; LEH; LRCX; LTGB; MNST; MR; QQQQ; WMS
Thursday night play results
INTC: Modest move higher on continued strong volume, right at the buy.
LXK: Still a nice test of the 50 day EMA setting up the next run.
STX: Low volume as it continues working laterally below near resistance.
VCLK: Still testing, fading back to the 50 day EMA to close on Friday.
New Plays:
Play Date: 01/13/2007
GMKT (GMarket, Inc.--$25.11; -0.30; no options): Retail e-commerce in Korea
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmkt.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February
STATUS: Ascending base. Taking another look at GMKT as it sets up for a higher low and then a breakout from its 8 week base. Using the 50 day EMA (22.17) on the lows as support during the base, it is now coming back to test the 10 day EMA (24.54). If it holds the 10 day EMA it will make that higher low, and that is often the precursor to a breakout move (using a higher support after bouncing up lower support levels). Likely to test toward the 10 day EMA more and we want to pick it up on a solid bounce from that level.
Volume: 1.093M Avg Volume: 470.049K
BUY POINT: Test 24.54, then $25.05 on the way back up. Volume=1.2M Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gmkt.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$29.23; -0.37; optionable): Networking equipment for homes, small business
EARNINGS: Last week of January
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NTGR gapped out of a 13 month double bottom base in late October, then consolidated the move with a 9 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Shot higher from that pattern to start the year, peaking out at 30 early last week and starting to slide back. Friday it tapped toward the 10 day EMA (28.69) on the low and then rebounded to recoup some of the losses. Likely to continue back to further snug up to the 10 day EMA and then resume the breakout run. When it makes the rebound we move in. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Another leading stock with top fundamentals growth rates to go along with the excellent technical pattern.
Volume: 770.433K Avg Volume: 703.562K
BUY POINT: $29.32 Volume=900K Target=$35.32 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: TUD FF - June $30c (50 delta) or TUD FE - June $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ntgr.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
NYX (NYSE Group--$105.31; -1.37; optionable)
EARNINGS: 2-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. NYX has formed the current 7 week pattern to consolidate the November breakout from a solid 8 month cup with handle. That move took it to 110 and then it fell into the current base. It tapped the 50 day EMA (94.92) to start the year and then surged higher to form the second leg of the double bottom. Classic pattern with the second leg undercutting the first. After a good run through midweek it started back on Thursday, fading toward the 10 day EMA (103.09) on lower, below average volume. Looking for it to tap at that level on this pullback and then we will catch it as it rebounds back up through the buy point.
Volume: 4.773M Avg Volume: 4.81M
BUY POINT: $104.11 Volume=5.2M Target=$124.95 Stop=$101.11
POSITION: NYX FA - June $105c (53 delta) or NYX FB - June $110c (42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nyx.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
PAY (VeriFone Holdings--$36.26; +0.59; optionable): Transaction automation systems enabling electronic bill payments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pay.html
EARNINGS: Early March
STATUS: Test breakout. PAY has quietly turned into a leader, sporting strong fundamentals growth rates to match its strong technical pattern. It broke out from a six month base in early November and rallied to 37.79 in December. Since then it faded back to test, sliding back in an orderly fashion on low, mostly below average volume. A shakeout to the downside Thursday and a recovery to the close. A strong surge higher Friday as volume moved back above average. Ready to continue the run, and it can rune very well indeed.
Volume: 953.4K Avg Volume: 698.714K
BUY POINT: $36.55 Volume=1M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.89
POSITION: PAY GG - July $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pay.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
SOHU (Sohu.com--$26.25; -0.02; optionable): Online products, services to Chinese consumers and businesses
EARNINGS: Third week of January
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice, nice tap at the 10 day EMA (25.81) on the Friday low, followed by a rebound to close flat. Volume was very low as it made this test. This is setting up the next move higher, the second run after SOHU broke higher to start the year, clearing an 8 month double bottom with handle base. It came from a long way down in the handle to make the breakout, so it is making a rather quick test. Strong money continues to scream higher ahead of the price, even as price makes this dip. Lots of buying ongoing. This is setting up an excellent buy point; the first test of the breakout by a strong stock is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 497.367K Avg Volume: 587.97K
BUY POINT: $26.65 Volume=850K Target=$31.98 Stop=$25.28
POSITION: UZK FE - June $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sohu.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 01/13/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$94.62; -1.18; optionable): iPods, iMacs, and now iPhones (or whatever Cisco and AAPL can work out)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 1-17-07 after the close. Possible split announce with earnings.
STATUS: Breakout test. AAPL surged on the iPhone release, then got hit with more allegations re Jobs and his stock options and then the alleged appropriation of the trademarked iPhone name. That sent the stock back Thursday and Friday, but very modestly and on much, much lower volume. It has basically filled the Wednesday gap higher with the Friday move as it reached lower then rebounded to cut its losses on the session. It is showing a lot of tenacity, refusing to give up its gains. Strong money flow remains.
Volume: 46.898M Avg Volume: 29.967M
BUY POINT: $95.11 Volume=50M Target=$109.75 Stop=$92.95
POSITION: QAA DS - Apr. $95c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aapl.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AKAM: Bounced off the 50 day EMA last week but not a lot of volume strength at all. Stalling some Friday well below the December high.
CELG: Has rebounded to tap the 10 day EMA Friday after gapping lower to start the week on lower expectations. Not looking great near term here. A call sale of the 55 calls is a good move if it fades from here.
DRIV: DRIV is in a high volume dive.
GME: Rallied to the December high at 58 on no volume last week. That is why we took no new positions. Will see how it responds to this low volume bounce off the 50 day EMA.
GOOG: Continues up toward the November high.
MA: Still working laterally after the strong move, setting up the next break higher.
NVDA: Has some issues of its own. Was a major 2006 leader and it was sold starting late December. It really picked up in January as profits were taken. It has held the 90 day MA and bounced for now, just making it back up to the 50 day EMA. Important test fot the stock.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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top stock pick
stock split
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