|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMAG; ASIA; BSC; FFIV; GPRO; GS; INFY; KNOT; LEH; LRCX; MXIM
Best Plays:
1) GMKT: Nice test of near support setting up a new high.
2) NTGR: Testing near support at the 10 day EMA.
3) SOHU: Excellent breakout test.
4) BMC: Nice lateral move, ready to break higher.
5) IIVI: The 10 day EMA is just about there, ready to send it higher.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/13/2007
COGO (Comtech Group--$18.96; +0.03; optionable): Module design solutions to Chinese electronics manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogo.html
EARNINGS: Released second week of February.
STATUS: Breakout test. COGO is setting up for its second bounce higher after the late October breakout from a nice 5 month cup with handle base. Indeed, it has set up a short cup with handle here, taking a breather last week as the market rallied. It was an early leader, so it does things pretty much at its own pace. That has set it up for a break higher this week to continue its breakout run, and to a new high. A top stock in terms of fundamentals growth.
Volume: 252.382K Avg Volume: 728.957K
BUY POINT: $19.45 Volume=1M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.42
POSITION: UWK FW - June $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cogo.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
GMKT (GMarket, Inc.--$25.11; -0.30; no options): Retail e-commerce in Korea
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmkt.html
EARNINGS: Second week of February
STATUS: Ascending base. Taking another look at GMKT as it sets up for a higher low and then a breakout from its 8 week base. Using the 50 day EMA (22.17) on the lows as support during the base, it is now coming back to test the 10 day EMA (24.54). If it holds the 10 day EMA it will make that higher low, and that is often the precursor to a breakout move (using a higher support after bouncing up lower support levels). Likely to test toward the 10 day EMA more and we want to pick it up on a solid bounce from that level.
Volume: 1.093M Avg Volume: 470.049K
BUY POINT: Test 24.54, then $25.05 on the way back up. Volume=1.2M Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gmkt.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$29.23; -0.37; optionable): Networking equipment for homes, small business
EARNINGS: Last week of January
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NTGR gapped out of a 13 month double bottom base in late October, then consolidated the move with a 9 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Shot higher from that pattern to start the year, peaking out at 30 early last week and starting to slide back. Friday it tapped toward the 10 day EMA (28.69) on the low and then rebounded to recoup some of the losses. Likely to continue back to further snug up to the 10 day EMA and then resume the breakout run. When it makes the rebound we move in. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Another leading stock with top fundamentals growth rates to go along with the excellent technical pattern.
Volume: 770.433K Avg Volume: 703.562K
BUY POINT: $29.32 Volume=900K Target=$35.32 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: TUD FF - June $30c (50 delta) or TUD FE - June $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
NYX (NYSE Group--$105.31; -1.37; optionable)
EARNINGS: 2-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. NYX has formed the current 7 week pattern to consolidate the November breakout from a solid 8 month cup with handle. That move took it to 110 and then it fell into the current base. It tapped the 50 day EMA (94.92) to start the year and then surged higher to form the second leg of the double bottom. Classic pattern with the second leg undercutting the first. After a good run through midweek it started back on Thursday, fading toward the 10 day EMA (103.09) on lower, below average volume. Looking for it to tap at that level on this pullback and then we will catch it as it rebounds back up through the buy point.
Volume: 4.773M Avg Volume: 4.81M
BUY POINT: $104.11 Volume=5.2M Target=$124.95 Stop=$101.11
POSITION: NYX FA - June $105c (53 delta) or NYX FB - June $110c (42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nyx.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
SOHU (Sohu.com--$26.25; -0.02; optionable): Online products, services to Chinese consumers and businesses
EARNINGS: Third week of January
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice, nice tap at the 10 day EMA (25.81) on the Friday low, followed by a rebound to close flat. Volume was very low as it made this test. This is setting up the next move higher, the second run after SOHU broke higher to start the year, clearing an 8 month double bottom with handle base. It came from a long way down in the handle to make the breakout, so it is making a rather quick test. Strong money continues to scream higher ahead of the price, even as price makes this dip. Lots of buying ongoing. This is setting up an excellent buy point; the first test of the breakout by a strong stock is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 497.367K Avg Volume: 587.97K
BUY POINT: $26.65 Volume=850K Target=$31.98 Stop=$25.28
POSITION: UZK FE - June $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sohu.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
TYL (Tyler Technologies--$14.62; +0.44; optionable): Information management solutions for local governments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tyl.html
EARNINGS: 2-28-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong volume to end the week and a strong price move on Friday as TYL comes off the 50 day EMA (14.24) and heads toward the breakout from its 12 week base. Strong money flow is leading higher, a good complement to the 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Looks ready to run.
Volume: 382.8K Avg Volume: 227.962K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=300K Target=$17.89 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: TYL GC - July $15c (50 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tyl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/10/2007
BMC (BMC Software--$34.70; -0.10; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Continuing the tight lateral move as the 10 day EMA (33.71) rises to meet it. Good action and still looking for that next break higher. To recap: BMC blasted out of its 7 week flat base to start the year, giving us a good entry point. After a quick surge it tested for three sessions, coming back close to the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low. It bounced from there though volume did not follow it. Money flow is leading higher and we are looking for some more volume as BMC breaks higher once more. That is when we step back in. Love moving in on the first breakout test when the stock turns back up.
Volume: 1.876M Avg Volume: 1.746M
BUY POINT: $35.31 Volume=2.4M Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: BMC EG - May $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmc.html
Play Date: 01/10/2007
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$29.21; -0.05; optionable): Lasers for precision industrial, military, medical, aerospace industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Similar to BMC, IIVI is testing its last break higher with a lateral move that holds the gains while the 10 day EMA (28.40) rises to meet it. That typically sends this type of pattern higher, so we are just being patient until it shows us that move. To recap: After a nice breakout and jog higher from its 8 week ascending base, IIVI is testing, working laterally on lower volume. Another first test of the breakout that looks successful and ready to yield the next run higher.
Volume: 108.231K Avg Volume: 224.884K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=295K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.98
POSITION: JIU DF - Apr. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iivi.html
Play Date: 01/11/2007
VRSN (Verisign--$24.52; -0.09; optionable): Internet security
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still holding above the 50 day EMA (23.60) as it works laterally on below average volume. Setting up the next break higher, but it is taking its time for now. To recap: Something of a technical trade here of a different sort. Back in the summer of 2005 (sounds like a song title) VRSN double topped and then gapped lower. Since then it worked lower, forming something of a big 18 month double bottom with handle. It broke higher in late November on a good outlook, then faded back to the 50 day EMA (23.77) to test the move, working laterally the past two weeks in a tight range. We are looking for some good volume as VRSN comes off the 50 day EMA and starts the run to fill that gap. That is roughly our initial target, but it has plenty of room to run and we will let it do so as long as it will.
Volume: 2.361M Avg Volume: 3.08M
BUY POINT: $24.82 Volume=4.5M Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.88
POSITION: QVR FE - June $25c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrsn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
