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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AMAG; BSC; FFIV; FRX; GPRO; GS; HRS; INFY; LEH; LRCX; MON; PCAR; RMD; VIVO
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/13/2007
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$31.30; +0.74; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Cup. Breaking higher off the 50 day EMA (29.74), working on the right side of a short 12 week base that is consolidating the late October breakout from an 8 month cup with handle base, running EAT to a new all-time high. It peaked at 31 and then faded back into the current pattern. Strong money flow and positive accumulation in the current small base has set up the next break higher. Solid move Friday on a second shot of above average volume. Ready to move in as it continues on this move and then gain as it tests a break through the high at 32.
Volume: 1.64M Avg Volume: 1.591M
BUY POINT: $31.52 Volume=2M Target=$36.75 Stop=$30.11
POSITION: EAT GF - July $30c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
LOGI (Logitech Intl.--$29.27; +0.08; optionable): PC peripherals (video cams, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/logi.html
EARNINGS: 1-17-07 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a strong breakout in October from a 10 month cup with handle base and a solid run higher, LOGI has slipped into the current 6 week pattern, holding above the 50 day EMA (27.91) on the lows. Gapped higher to start the week, then a tight lateral move just above the 10 day EMA (28.99) to close it out. Friday volume jumped above average. Money flow continues to run strong. Set up well for the breakout and earnings could give it the boost it needs. Strong fundamentals growth rates to go along with the solid pattern. A powerful combination.
Volume: 511.407K Avg Volume: 460.2K
BUY POINT: $29.62 Volume=690K Target=$35.65 Stop=$28.31
POSITION: LQG FF - June $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/logi.html
Leader: Not a split stock but a nice leader in pattern and in fundamentals growth.
Play Date: 01/13/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$29.23; -0.37; optionable): Networking equipment for homes, small business
EARNINGS: Last week of January
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NTGR gapped out of a 13 month double bottom base in late October, then consolidated the move with a 9 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Shot higher from that pattern to start the year, peaking out at 30 early last week and starting to slide back. Friday it tapped toward the 10 day EMA (28.69) on the low and then rebounded to recoup some of the losses. Likely to continue back to further snug up to the 10 day EMA and then resume the breakout run. When it makes the rebound we move in. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Another leading stock with top fundamentals growth rates to go along with the excellent technical pattern.
Volume: 770.433K Avg Volume: 703.562K
BUY POINT: $29.32 Volume=900K Target=$35.32 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: TUD FF - June $30c (50 delta) or TUD FE - June $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntgr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATI: Wildcard that could announce 1-24-07. Great pattern regardless.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07.
BCR: Forecast mid-January
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
BEC: Tentatively forecast first week of January. Not giving a split announcement and still struggling quite a bit. Avoided a sell off, however, working on setting up again.
BIDU: Forecast first week of February.
BPO: Forecast early February
CLE: No early January announcement. Still moving higher but needs some more trade.
CRDN: Tentatively forecast early February
CTSH: Forecast 2-9-07
FFIV: Potential split announcement 1-24-07
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07. Still building back, trying to set up a new buy point.
GPRO: Tentatively forecast 2-13-07
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-25-07. Starting to recover here with something of a double bottom. Operative word is something.
RNT: Tentatively forecast third week of January
TRMB: Forecast 1-25-07
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast third week of January
XTO: Forecast with board meeting on 1-26-07. Still hanging onto the 200 day SMA.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/13/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$94.62; -1.18; optionable): iPods, iMacs, and now iPhones (or whatever Cisco and AAPL can work out)
BACKGROUND: Forecast potentially on 1-17-07 after the close with earnings, but typically announces 2 weeks after earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 1-17-07 after the close. Possible split announce with earnings.
STATUS: Breakout test. AAPL surged on the iPhone release, then got hit with more allegations re Jobs and his stock options and then the alleged appropriation of the trademarked iPhone name. That sent the stock back Thursday and Friday, but very modestly and on much, much lower volume. It has basically filled the Wednesday gap higher with the Friday move as it reached lower then rebounded to cut its losses on the session. It is showing a lot of tenacity, refusing to give up its gains. Strong money flow remains.
Volume: 46.898M Avg Volume: 29.967M
BUY POINT: $95.11 Volume=50M Target=$109.75 Stop=$92.95
POSITION: QAA DS - Apr. $95c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
HOG (Harly-Davidson--$72.80; -1.05; optionable): Motorcycles. Forecast 1-18-07 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-17-00 at $66
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hog.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Looks to be starting to form the handle to a short 8 week base that used the 50 day EMA (70.95) as support. Solid volume Thursday as it surged higher, and then backing off some on Friday as it fell to tap the 10 day EMA (70.28) on the low but rebounded to recoup half its losses. Solid run to late November took it past its prior split point, and this test and new short base is giving us a nice entry point into the play.
Volume: 2.307M Avg Volume: 2.487M
BUY POINT: $74.12 Volume=3.7M Target=$88.95 Stop=$71.48
POSITION: HOG EO - May $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hog.html
Play Date: 01/13/2007
JCI (Johnson Controls--$86.20; -0.61; optionable): Auto parts. Forecast 1-19-06 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-18-03 at $105
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Likely a bit early on this stock but still a very nice 8 month pattern setting JCI up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Set up well for the move. Just looking for the breakout to start some positions.
Volume: 1.075M Avg Volume: 922.311K
BUY POINT: $87.45 Volume=1.7M Target=$99.89 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: JCI DQ - Apr. $85c (59 delta) or JCI GR - July $90c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/04/2007
BAX (Baxter Intl.--$47.55; +0.45; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Moving higher Friday, but volume was not. Good volume Thursday and Friday set up the move, and if it continues higher to start the week we will look at starting positions. To recap: Some solid volume to end the week as BAX comes off a tap toward the 50 day EMA (45.72) on the Wednesday low. It flirted with the breakout Thursday. Very close to making the getaway move, following the strong money flow higher.
Volume: 1.922M Avg Volume: 2.328M
BUY POINT: Orig: $47.22; on a further move from here. Volume=2.4M Target=$54.45 Stop=$46.04
POSITION: BAX EW - May $47.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bax.html
Play Date: 01/11/2007
FCFS (First Cash Financial--$23.82; +0.11; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcfs.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another doji at the 18 day EMA (23.31) on low volume as FCFS continues to hold the line and set up for the rebound after the breakout test. To recap: FCFS gapped out of a rangy 8 month base in late December on word it was going to the SP600. It fell right back down, filling the gap but holding the 18 day EMA, checking up the selling there. It has worked laterally the past week using that level as support. It is holding the breakout and looking for this solid stock to rebound and resume the breakout. Solid growth fundamentals to go with the pattern.
Volume: 231.693K Avg Volume: 349.268K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=500K Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.26
POSITION: FQO FX - Jun $22.50c (67 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcfs.html
Play Date: 01/10/2007
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$29.21; -0.05; optionable): Lasers for precision industrial, military, medical, aerospace industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Similar to BMC, IIVI is testing its last break higher with a lateral move that holds the gains while the 10 day EMA (28.40) rises to meet it. That typically sends this type of pattern higher, so we are just being patient until it shows us that move. To recap: After a nice breakout and jog higher from its 8 week ascending base, IIVI is testing, working laterally on lower volume. Another first test of the breakout that looks successful and ready to yield the next run higher.
Volume: 108.231K Avg Volume: 224.884K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=295K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.98
POSITION: JIU DF - Apr. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iivi.html
Play Date: 01/11/2007
NICE (Nice-Systems--$31.78; -0.05; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nice.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Held steady after the strong Thursday move off the 50 day EMA (30.85), stalling at the October closing high at 32. Still ready for the nice bounce and we are ready as it moves through 32. To recap: Broke out of a 5 month double bottom in October, rallying to 32. It tested the 50 day EMA and then rebounded sharply. Once more it is testing the 50 day EMA, bouncing higher Thursday on rising, slightly above average volume. Good test after making a new 6 year high. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price and NICE was moving well Thursday, following it higher.
Volume: 273.188K Avg Volume: 279.908K
BUY POINT: $32.05 Volume=350K Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.65
POSITION: EQJ EF - May $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nice.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
TJX (TJ Max--$29.94; 0.00; optionable): Discount department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Finally got the strong volume Friday, jumping above average as it moved above the Thursday high but fading back to close flat. It is locked and loaded for the breakout, and on a further move we are looking at some positions. To recap: TJX is showing excellent action as it flirts with the breakout from an 11 week base that is consolidating its August to November run. Excellent pattern showing excellent 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying here as it rests and sets up for another breakout and another new high. Strong surge Thursday then a give back Friday on lower volume that still held the 10 day EMA on the intraday low. Solid all around and just waiting for the breakout move on strong volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 3.978M Avg Volume: 3.223M
BUY POINT: New: over 30 (orig. $29.88) Volume=5.1M Target=$35.85 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: TJX DF - Apr. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tjx.html
Technical Trade:
Play Date: 01/11/2007
VRSN (Verisign--$24.52; -0.09; optionable): Internet security
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still holding above the 50 day EMA (23.60) as it works laterally on below average volume. Setting up the next break higher, but it is taking its time for now. To recap: Something of a technical trade here of a different sort. Back in the summer of 2005 (sounds like a song title) VRSN double topped and then gapped lower. Since then it worked lower, forming something of a big 18 month double bottom with handle. It broke higher in late November on a good outlook, then faded back to the 50 day EMA (23.77) to test the move, working laterally the past two weeks in a tight range. We are looking for some good volume as VRSN comes off the 50 day EMA and starts the run to fill that gap. That is roughly our initial target, but it has plenty of room to run and we will let it do so as long as it will.
Volume: 2.361M Avg Volume: 3.08M
BUY POINT: $24.82 Volume=4.5M Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.88
POSITION: QVR FE - June $25c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrsn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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