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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ASMI; JSDA; MA; NITE; SNDA
Best Plays:
1) ALNY: Coming off the 50 day EMA for a run at another new high.
2) TZIX: Nice volume as TZIX starts breaking higher.
3) SFD: Diving lower on strong trade.
4) BMC: Still set to move in its lateral consolidation
5) IIVI: Ditto
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/17/2007
ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals--$22.04; +0.19; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alny.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ALNY made a strong breakout in late October from a 7 month cup with handle base, rallying to 24 on the breakout run high. It faded to test into the new year, holding the 50 day EMA (21.26) on the low of the test. It rebounded last week on very strong volume as it shot off the 50 day EMA. It is making a nice, orderly and low volume test of that move, holding at the 18 day EMA (21.79) the past three sessions. Looking for it to make a higher low here and then bolt higher again, following the money flow.
Volume: 211.851K Avg Volume: 420.905K
BUY POINT: $22.65 Volume=600K Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.18
POSITION: AQX FX - June $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alny.html
Play Date: 01/17/2007
BYD (Boyd Gaming--$48.07; -0.58; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/byd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BYD is trying to get its legs under it to propel a breakout, but thus far the volume, though higher, has been unable to push it. The gaming sector is hot right now, however, and with money flow surging higher ahead of price we are looking for a breakout on volume to follow that money.
Volume: 907K Avg Volume: 1.124M
BUY POINT: $48.86 Volume=1.2M Target=$54.96 Stop=$46.78
POSITION: BYD FI - June $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/byd.html
Play Date: 01/17/2007
TZIX (Trizetto Group--$19.10; +0.44; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzix.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TZIX is jumping to a new 6 year high on strong volume this week. It broke out from a 10 month cup with handle in late November, rallying to 19. It worked laterally and tested the 50 day EMA to start the year, starting off that level this week on that strong volume. Money flow is rallying sharply higher ahead of price. Ready to move in as it continues the break higher after a successful test of the breakout move.
Volume: 729.917K Avg Volume: 411.211K
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=575K Target=$23.32 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: FUG FW - June $17.50c (68 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tzix.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/17/2007
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$18.00; -0.11; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: PUT. BEBE peaked in late October and then started reporting slower sales. It gapped lower and that started the current 2.5 month downtrend. It fell to the 200 day SMA (19.55) and spent all of December trying to hold that level. December sales reports disappointed and BEBE was spanked like a bad boy, gapping lower once more. It recovered to test that move, rallying to the 18 day EMA (18.62) this week and filling most of that gap. Looking for a rollover to move into the downside play. The $20 put lands a 42% gain to the target; the $17.50 put a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 526.91K Avg Volume: 1.252M
BUY POINT: $17.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$15.85 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: KUO OD - Mar. $20p (-56 delta) or KUO OW - Mar. $17.50p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bebe.html
Play Date: 01/17/2007
SFD (Smithfield Foods--$24.80; -0.40; optionable): Pork
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfd.html
STATUS: PUT. SFD is running like a stuck pig. It peaked in September and has been wallowing ever since. It failed at the 50 day EMA in December and has been fading down the 18 day EMA since. It rallied to that level last week and then failed, starting to roll over for the next leg lower. Ready to move in as it continues downside, following the money lower. Hogs eat mostly corn as their feedstock, and with all of this gas about ethanol, an ear of corn doesn't fatten a hog fast enough. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.332M Avg Volume: 989.224K
BUY POINT: $28.78 Volume=1.4M Target=$27.75 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: SFD PE - Apr. $30p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sfd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/11/2007
ATI (Allegheny Technologies--$91.54; +1.04; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ati.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Low volume continues as ATI works laterally, forming something of a handle to its short base. It was up Wednesday, but no volume. Still looks ready to make the break, and if it gets some volume it is ready. To recap: ATI has formed a base on base the past 9 months. First a 6.5 month cup with handle that broke out in late November and ran to 99. It turned back down sharply and fell into the current 5 week double bottom that has used the 50 day EMA (86.23) as support. Volume jumped up to average again Thursday as ATI cleared 90. Solid money flow setting ATI up for a new high. It has crossed the 90 threshold, and in an uptrending market a strong stock will make a run toward 100 that we can jump on.
Volume: 1.533M Avg Volume: 2.818M
BUY POINT: New: $91.88 (orig. $90.88) Volume=3.2M Target=$99.90 Stop=$88.45
POSITION: ATI DR - Apr. $90c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ati.html
Play Date: 01/10/2007
BMC (BMC Software--$35.00; +0.14; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally as the 10 day EMA (34.51) rises to meet it. Very tight lateral range and looks ripe to break higher as it refuses to give up any ground. To recap: BMC blasted out of its 7 week flat base to start the year, giving us a good entry point. After a quick surge it tested for three sessions, coming back close to the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low. It bounced from there though volume did not follow it. Money flow is leading higher and we are looking for some more volume as BMC breaks higher once more. That is when we step back in. Love moving in on the first breakout test when the stock turns back up.
Volume: 1.206M Avg Volume: 1.721M
BUY POINT: $35.31 Volume=2.4M Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: BMC EG - May $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bmc.html
Play Date: 01/10/2007
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$29.14; +0.36; optionable): Lasers for precision industrial, military, medical, aerospace industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Also working laterally over the 10 day EMA (28.87), still looking for the next break higher as it consolidates, refusing to give up ground. To recap: After a nice breakout and jog higher from its 8 week ascending base, IIVI is testing, working laterally on lower volume. Another first test of the breakout that looks successful and ready to yield the next run higher.
Volume: 170.309K Avg Volume: 225.976K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=295K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.98
POSITION: JIU DF - Apr. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iivi.html
Play Date: 01/16/2007
MAN (Manpower--$77.38; +1.00; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/man.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Started the breakout attempt Wednesday on rising volume though it was still below average. Looking for a continued move to start some positions and then wait to see if some volume comes in. Money flow is strong and MAN looks ready to follow it. To recap: MAN has been around a long time, but right now we are interested in its 4 week lateral move along the 18 day EMA that is the second test of the October breakout from a 6 month cup with handle. Strong stocks that breakout yield 4 to 5 bounces off the 10 or 18 day EMA. This gives MAN plenty of room to run higher, and this lateral consolidation is setting the foundation for the next break higher in its breakout run.
Volume: 585.4K Avg Volume: 747.6K
BUY POINT: $77.22 Volume=1.1M Target=$88.85 Stop=$74.32
POSITION: MAN FO - June $75c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/man.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/06/2007
UTEK (Ultratech--$12.08; -0.07; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utek.html
STATUS: Put. Still working laterally below the 10 day EMA (12.29), unable to punch through as money flow starts to roll back over again. Looking for UTEK to roll over this time and fall through the 12 level that has acted as some support.
Volume: 199.926K Avg Volume: 270.429K
BUY POINT: New: $11.97 (orig. $12.37) Volume=375K Target=$9.92 Stop=$12.38
POSITION: UQT NV - Feb. $12.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utek.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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