|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: LTBG; MA; WMS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
QGEN (Qiagen--$16.33; -0.20; optionable): Biotechnology
EARNINGS: 2-12-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qgen.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout test. QGEN gapped higher a week back on strong volume when it raised its revenue guidance. Strong volume took it out of its 14 week accumulation pattern, sending it to 16.67 on the initial move. It is now testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (16.09) on Friday. 16.09) on Friday. Strong volume all the way up, and this test is setting it up to continue the break higher this week. The first test of the breakout is one of the best points to enter as it shows if the stock has staying power: buyers come back in and show they really want it as the stock moves back up on volume.
Volume: 536.557K Avg Volume: 357.385K
BUY POINT: $16.65 Volume=536K Target=$19.22 Stop=$15.78
POSITION: QXE EC - May $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qgen.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
RJF (Raymond James Finl.--$31.54; +0.34; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rjf.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice little 9 week base has formed to consolidate the October breakout form a 6 month cup with handle base. It used the 200 day SMA (29.89) as support on the pattern lows, making its double bottom there. Nice handle last week as it weathered the selling, setting up for the next break higher. Solid money flow is leading higher. Ready to move in as RJF shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 418.8K Avg Volume: 329.447K
BUY POINT: $32.05 Volume=500K Target=$38.45 Stop=$30.94
POSITION: RJF EF - May $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rjf.html
New buy point on a current position: Looking to some proven winners as the new week starts.
Play Date: 01/20/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$47.95; -0.41; optionable): Funky shoes
EARNINGS: Early February
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
STATUS: Breakout test. They are everywhere in every color. The pattern says they are still selling them and have room for expansion. CROX broke higher last week on strong volume, clearing a 8 week cup base. It got caught in the Thursday selling when many stocks were pushed lower, but Friday it showed a nice tight doji with tail over the 10 day EMA (47.52), rebounding to hold that near support on the close. Lower volume on the selling shows the sellers are in the minority in this move. Ready to move in as CROX snaps back up.
Volume: 1.799M Avg Volume: 1.754M
BUY POINT: $48.88 Volume=2.5M Target=$58.75 Stop=$46.18
POSITION: CQJ FJ - June $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/crox.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
MA (MasterCard--$105.03; +2.54; optionable): Credit services, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 2-9-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. MA broke higher two weeks back from a short but very nice 7 week cup with handle. It surged to 110 and then Thursday was hit when investors started to thrown out the baby with the bath. It managed to hold near support at the 18 day EMA (102.47) on the Thursday close then bounced Friday, though volume backed off to below average. This stock has a lot of pop to it, and this pullback is giving us another entry point. Just looking for it to start back up and show a bit of trade.
Volume: 2.977M Avg Volume: 3.548M
BUY POINT: $105.55 Volume=4.5M Target=$119.75 Stop=$102.35
POSITION: MA GA - July $105c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ma.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$45.33; +0.52; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. One of the semiconductor stocks that did not break down last week, WFR just moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (44.16) and the December highs. Friday it gapped lower on the open but the recovered nicely for a gain. Excellent strength from this stock, chip or no. Looking for a solid move higher to start more positions.
Volume: 4.299M Avg Volume: 4.082M
BUY POINT: $46.34 Volume=6M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: WFR GI - July $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wfr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
PGH (Pengrowoth Energy Trust--$16.77; -0.18; optionable): Oil & gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pgh.html
EARNINGS: Early February.
STATUS: Put. PGH tried to base for 10 months but failed. It broke down into the current downtrend, using the 50 day EMA (16.94) as resistance when it tried to turn the tide. Last week it tried again, rebounding up to tap the 50 day EMA on the Thursday high on low, below average volume. That low trade shows few buyers as it rebounded. Friday it slipped a bit and closed at the 10 day EMA (16.74). Money flow continues lower ahead of the stock and we are looking for PGH to break down below this near support after that meek rebound. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.285M Avg Volume: 2.17M
BUY POINT: $16.67 Volume=2M Target=$15.22 Stop=$17.05
POSITION: PGH PW - Apr. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pgh.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Doji over the 50 day SMA. Waiting to see how it reacts here and if it sets up for a new run.
AKAM: Not bad at all, fending off the weak market by holding over the 50 day EMA.
DRIV: Rebounded on some solid trade Friday. Interesting but don't think that will turn the tide in the current weakness.
GOOG: Holding at the 18 day EMA after the pullback. Looks ready to move higher again.
ISE: Really had a tough week after rebounding off the support at 46.
NVDA: Rebounded some Friday, but having serious issues after it knifed through the 90 day SMA Thursday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
