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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMAG; KNOT; MA; MRVC; TALK; BEBE
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
DIGE (Digene Corp.--$52.06; +1.67; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dige.html
EARNINGS: 2-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Solid volume surge Friday as DIGE surged as well, clearing a short base. Nice little consolidation of the last 2006 run after the breakout from a 6 month base. As noted last week, we are seeing this short type of pattern set up as a consolidation of that late 2006 run. Excellent break higher and looking to take some positions on a continued break higher and then again on a successful test. A biotech with a great technical pattern to go along with the pattern that is going to send it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 811.702K Avg Volume: 385.281K
BUY POINT: $52.38 Volume=400K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.95
POSITION: QDG FJ - June $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dige.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
PRFT (Perficient--$19.34; +0.65; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher on strong volume two weeks back as it raised its Q4 outlook. Nice surge to 20 on the move and then in the selling last week it came back to test. It held the 10 day EMA on the Thursday close then sold off to support near 18 on the Friday low and then rebounded for a solid gain on rising, average volume. Looking for a continued move higher after this solid test.
Volume: 497.176K Avg Volume: 483.302K
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=700K Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.27
POSITION: UTJ GW - July $17.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prft.html
New buy point on a current position: Looking to some proven winners as the new week starts.
Play Date: 01/20/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$210.29; +0.96; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: March
STATUS: Breakout test. GS broke higher from a 6 week ascending base to start the year and rallied to 215 on the move. Last week it tested, coming back to the 10 day EMA (209) where it held and bounced modestly Friday. Nice little base to consolidate the September to November run, and this test is setting it up to move again. Still the lowest P/E of the big brokers and it has been printing money.
Volume: 5.302M Avg Volume: 5.047M
BUY POINT: $211.55 Volume=6.5M Target=$229.00 Stop=$208.22
POSITION: GPY GB - July $210c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gs.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
MA (MasterCard--$105.03; +2.54; optionable): Credit services, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 2-9-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. MA broke higher two weeks back from a short but very nice 7 week cup with handle. It surged to 110 and then Thursday was hit when investors started to thrown out the baby with the bath. It managed to hold near support at the 18 day EMA (102.47) on the Thursday close then bounced Friday, though volume backed off to below average. This stock has a lot of pop to it, and this pullback is giving us another entry point. Just looking for it to start back up and show a bit of trade.
Volume: 2.977M Avg Volume: 3.548M
BUY POINT: $105.55 Volume=4.5M Target=$119.75 Stop=$102.35
POSITION: MA GA - July $105c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ma.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$45.33; +0.52; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. One of the semiconductor stocks that did not break down last week, WFR just moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (44.16) and the December highs. Friday it gapped lower on the open but the recovered nicely for a gain. Excellent strength from this stock, chip or no. Looking for a solid move higher to start more positions.
Volume: 4.299M Avg Volume: 4.082M
BUY POINT: $46.34 Volume=6M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: WFR GI - July $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
PGH (Pengrowoth Energy Trust--$16.77; -0.18; optionable): Oil & gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pgh.html
EARNINGS: Early February.
STATUS: Put. PGH tried to base for 10 months but failed. It broke down into the current downtrend, using the 50 day EMA (16.94) as resistance when it tried to turn the tide. Last week it tried again, rebounding up to tap the 50 day EMA on the Thursday high on low, below average volume. That low trade shows few buyers as it rebounded. Friday it slipped a bit and closed at the 10 day EMA (16.74). Money flow continues lower ahead of the stock and we are looking for PGH to break down below this near support after that meek rebound. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.285M Avg Volume: 2.17M
BUY POINT: $16.67 Volume=2M Target=$15.22 Stop=$17.05
POSITION: PGH PW - Apr. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pgh.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
MCRL (Micrel--$9.95; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcrl.html
EARNINGS: 2-1-07
STATUS: Put. After trying to set up a base from April to November MCRL could not finish the job. It broke over the 200 day SMA but then faded, turning below that key level and is now trending lower, failing at the 10 day EMA (10.25) last week. Money flow is weak and we are looking play MCRL on the leg lower as it continues downside. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 626.755K Avg Volume: 920.355K
BUY POINT: $9.85 Volume=925K Target=$8.82 Stop=$10.28
POSITION: MIQ QB - May $10p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mcrl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/18/2007
IFLO (I-Flow--$16.08; +0.09; optionable): Medical supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing the 18 day EMA (15.83) tapping at it Thursday and Friday on the lows. Solid, still ready to continue the break higher. To recap: Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and then rebounded, testing the strong break higher to start the year, moving out of 12 month cup with handle base. Strong money flow is leading higher. Solid fundamentals growth rates to go along with the pattern. Looking for a rebound from this test to start the play.
Volume: 57.829K Avg Volume: 191.126K
BUY POINT: $16.31 Volume=225K Target=$19.65 Stop=$15.68
POSITION: QIF FC - June $15c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Play Date: 01/10/2007
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$28.84; +0.02; optionable): Lasers for precision industrial, military, medical, aerospace industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume as IIVI continues laterally near the 10 day EMA (28.86), easing along as it consolidates the last break higher. Set up well, just needs to show the move. To recap: After a nice breakout and jog higher from its 8 week ascending base, IIVI is testing, working laterally on lower volume. Another first test of the breakout that looks successful and ready to yield the next run higher.
Volume: 77.812K Avg Volume: 214.926K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=295K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.98
POSITION: JIU DF - Apr. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iivi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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