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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BEC; AMAG; BPO; JCI; MA; TALX; VIVO
New Plays:
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
PDX (Pediatrix Medical--$51.56; +0.80; optionable): Neonatal & other pediatric specialty services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong above average volume Friday as PDX broke out from a 10 month base, heading towards a new all-time high. Excellent pattern with money flow surging higher ahead of price. Great pattern and a very good sector for the current market conditions.
Volume: 346.6K Avg Volume: 249.766K
BUY POINT: $51.74 Volume=350K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.72
POSITION: PDX EJ - May $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdx.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
SYK (Stryker--$58.95; -0.05; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07 after the close
STATUS: Flying plateau. It took awhile but SYK finally gave is the move higher starting this year. After a solid surge it spent last week moving laterally in a tight, narrow range, refusing to give up any ground, waiting for the 10 day EMA (58) to catch up with it. Indeed, Friday it tapped the 10 day on the intraday low and rebounded to close flat. Excellent break higher and strong test, stubbornly holding its gains even in a weak market. Looking for another move higher this week.
Volume: 1.847M Avg Volume: 1.415M
BUY POINT: $59.48 Volume=2.1M Target=$68.45 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: SYK FL - June $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$47.95; -0.41; optionable): Funky shoes
EARNINGS: Early February
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
STATUS: Breakout test. They are everywhere in every color. The pattern says they are still selling them and have room for expansion. CROX broke higher last week on strong volume, clearing a 8 week cup base. It got caught in the Thursday selling when many stocks were pushed lower, but Friday it showed a nice tight doji with tail over the 10 day EMA (47.52), rebounding to hold that near support on the close. Lower volume on the selling shows the sellers are in the minority in this move. Ready to move in as CROX snaps back up.
Volume: 1.799M Avg Volume: 1.754M
BUY POINT: $48.88 Volume=2.5M Target=$58.75 Stop=$46.18
POSITION: CQJ FJ - June $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crox.html
New buy point on current positions:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$210.29; +0.96; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: March
STATUS: Breakout test. GS broke higher from a 6 week ascending base to start the year and rallied to 215 on the move. Last week it tested, coming back to the 10 day EMA (209) where it held and bounced modestly Friday. Nice little base to consolidate the September to November run, and this test is setting it up to move again. Still the lowest P/E of the big brokers and it has been printing money.
Volume: 5.302M Avg Volume: 5.047M
BUY POINT: $211.55 Volume=6.5M Target=$229.00 Stop=$208.22
POSITION: GPY GB - July $210c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gs.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
MA (MasterCard--$105.03; +2.54; optionable): Credit services, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 2-9-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. MA broke higher two weeks back from a short but very nice 7 week cup with handle. It surged to 110 and then Thursday was hit when investors started to thrown out the baby with the bath. It managed to hold near support at the 18 day EMA (102.47) on the Thursday close then bounced Friday, though volume backed off to below average. This stock has a lot of pop to it, and this pullback is giving us another entry point. Just looking for it to start back up and show a bit of trade.
Volume: 2.977M Avg Volume: 3.548M
BUY POINT: $105.55 Volume=4.5M Target=$119.75 Stop=$102.35
POSITION: MA GA - July $105c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ma.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$45.33; +0.52; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. One of the semiconductor stocks that did not break down last week, WFR just moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (44.16) and the December highs. Friday it gapped lower on the open but the recovered nicely for a gain. Excellent strength from this stock, chip or no. Looking for a solid move higher to start more positions.
Volume: 4.299M Avg Volume: 4.082M
BUY POINT: $46.34 Volume=6M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: WFR GI - July $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
PGH (Pengrowoth Energy Trust--$16.77; -0.18; optionable): Oil & gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pgh.html
EARNINGS: Early February.
STATUS: Put. PGH tried to base for 10 months but failed. It broke down into the current downtrend, using the 50 day EMA (16.94) as resistance when it tried to turn the tide. Last week it tried again, rebounding up to tap the 50 day EMA on the Thursday high on low, below average volume. That low trade shows few buyers as it rebounded. Friday it slipped a bit and closed at the 10 day EMA (16.74). Money flow continues lower ahead of the stock and we are looking for PGH to break down below this near support after that meek rebound. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.285M Avg Volume: 2.17M
BUY POINT: $16.67 Volume=2M Target=$15.22 Stop=$17.05
POSITION: PGH PW - Apr. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pgh.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATI: Wildcard that could announce 1-24-07
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07.
BCR: Forecast mid-January
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
BIDU: Forecast first week of February.
BPO: Forecast early February
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
CTSH: Forecast 2-9-07
FFIV: Potential split announcement 1-24-07
GENZ: Tentatively set for 2-14-07
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07
GPRO: Tentatively forecast 2-13-07
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-19-07. No split announcement but received an upgrade and had a great end to the week.
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
RNT: Tentatively forecast third week of January. No split yet but a nice surge Friday.
TRMB: Forecast 1-25-07
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07. Nice break higher on strong volume.
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast third week of January
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/11/2007
ATI (Allegheny Technologies--$91.56; +1.20; optionable): Industrial metals
BACKGROUND: No splits in ATI's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ati.html
EARNINGS: 1-24-07 before the open.
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Worked laterally over the 10 day EMA (90.19) to end last week, setting up a nice low volume handle. In all the selling it went about its own business, and that has left it in better position to make the breakout. To recap: ATI has formed a base on base the past 9 months. First a 6.5 month cup with handle that broke out in late November and ran to 99. It turned back down sharply and fell into the current 5 week double bottom that has used the 50 day EMA (85.44) as support. Volume jumped up to average again last Thursday as ATI cleared 90. Solid money flow setting ATI up for a new high. It has crossed the 90 threshold, and in an uptrending market a strong stock will make a run toward 100 that we can jump on.
Volume: 1.914M Avg Volume: 2.738M
BUY POINT: $90.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$99.90 Stop=$88.45
POSITION: ATI DR - Apr. $90c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ati.html
Play Date: 01/18/2007
CLE (Claires Stores--$34.03; +0.03; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded late in the week, dropping harder on Thursday but showing no increase in volume. Friday it showed a tight doji at the 10 day EMA, and that looks to have it set for the break higher. Excellent pattern; just has to show us the move. To recap: Very low volume the past 6 weeks as CLE forms the handle to its 10 month base that is setting it up for a new high. Strong money flow is leading higher even as CLE eases back. Excellent set up to the break to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.044M Avg Volume: 1.795M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=2.7M Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: CLE EG - May $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Play Date: 01/18/2007
GENZ (Genzyme--$67.90; +1.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-25-01 at $101.
STATUS: Double bottom. Solid bounce Friday as GENZ moved off the 10 day EMA test on rising, average volume. Money flow continues to run higher ahead of price. Set up nicely to make the break higher. To recap: GENZ has last week back to the 10 day EMA, a small handle to its 14 month double bottom. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and after this low volume pullback to near support GENZ is ready to make the break. Solid.
Volume: 2.183M Avg Volume: 2.142M
BUY POINT: $68.22 Volume=3.2M Target=$78.45 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: GZQ GU - July $67.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
TJX (TJ Max--$30.03; +0.53; optionable): Department stores. Forecast mid-February.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Spent the past couple of weeks trying to make the breakout from its 11 week pattern formed using the 50 day EMA as support. It bumped up into 30 several sessions, closing right at that level Friday on lower but still solidly above average volume. It moved to a new closing high and we want to see it continued higher to take our positions.
Volume: 4.325M Avg Volume: 3.326M
BUY POINT: New: 30.22 (orig. $29.88) Volume=5.1M Target=$35.85 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: TJX DF - Apr. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tjx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/10/2007
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$28.84; +0.02; optionable): Lasers for precision industrial, military, medical, aerospace industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume as IIVI continues laterally near the 10 day EMA (28.86), easing along as it consolidates the last break higher. Set up well, just needs to show the move. To recap: After a nice breakout and jog higher from its 8 week ascending base, IIVI is testing, working laterally on lower volume. Another first test of the breakout that looks successful and ready to yield the next run higher.
Volume: 77.812K Avg Volume: 214.926K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=295K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.98
POSITION: JIU DF - Apr. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iivi.html
Play Date: 01/18/2007
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$33.37; +0.61; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: 1-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working over the 18 day EMA (32.67), forming the handle to its short base. Looking very solid heading into this week. To recap: Kind of a double bottom in a double bottom. A short 7 week pattern over the 50 day EMA (13.85) has formed after the October to December rally formed the right leg of a larger 7 month Double bottom w/handle base. Again, something we have seen in many leaders of late. Strong money flow is leading higher. Just looking for volume to surge higher as STLD makes the break higher.
Volume: 1.325M Avg Volume: 1.931M
BUY POINT: $33.78 Volume=2.9M Target=$40.55 Stop=$31.74
POSITION: RQL EZ - May $32.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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