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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best plays:
1) CPKI: Excellent breakout test
2) CTRP: Starting up once more on strong volume.
3) MNST: Super test of the breakout.
4) VIP: Rallying after a quick consolidation
5) WFR: Excellent relative strength.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/22/2007
CPKI (California Pizza Kitchen--$35.14; -0.21; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpki.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice strong surge out of an 11 month reverse head and shoulders to start the year. A nice $3.50 move on the breakout and then a test the past week, tapping at the 18 day EMA (34.56) on the Monday low and rebounding to close flat, right at the 10 day EMA. Nice rebound after the test of near support. Money flow remains very strong as CPKI tests the breakout move. Can run well when it gets going and this is an excellent test.
Volume: 258.679K Avg Volume: 274.675K
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=350K Target=$40.99 Stop=$34.39
POSITION: CUH GG - July $35c (60 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cpki.html
Play Date: 01/22/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$65.85; +1.63; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Well, CTRP was right back at it, bouncing off the 18 day EMA (64.13) on strong, above average volume. It is making its second bounce off near support following the November breakout from a 4.5 month double bottom base. Not giving in at all, and with this move we are looking at moving right back into this leader.
Volume: 483.252K Avg Volume: 394.932K
BUY POINT: $66.32 Volume=550K Target=$76.45 Stop=$63.95
POSITION: QCT FM - June $65c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 01/22/2007
EQIX (Equinix--$81.76; -1.25; optionable): Neutral collocation, interconnection, and managed services to enterprises, content companies, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. As with many strong stocks, EQIX formed a short 6 week base over the 50 day EMA in December and January after a strong run higher in the fall to year end. After that move a consolidation was needed to get rid of the profit takers and establish some more demand for the stock. Last week EQIX formed the handle to the base and started higher Friday. It faded some to start the week, setting up a better break higher. Nice recovery off the 10 day EMA Monday, and looking for a continued move higher on solid trade to start the play.
Volume: 549.047K Avg Volume: 439.107K
BUY POINT: $82.88 Volume=650K Target=$100.00 Stop=$79.55
POSITION: FQS FQ - June $85c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eqix.html
Play Date: 01/22/2007
MNST (Monster Worldwide--$49.17; -0.24; optionable): Online resumes/jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mnst.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Very nice test of the 10 day EMA (48.83), showing a nice doji with tail at that level Monday. That looks to cap a three session pullback after a strong breakout move a week back from a 8.5 month cup with handle base. Love the first test of the breakout; when the stock starts back up it shows us that the stock is really in demand because the buyers want it again even at a higher price.
Volume: 759.262K Avg Volume: 1.369M
BUY POINT: $49.65 Volume=1.8M Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.95
POSITION: BSQ FJ - Jun $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mnst.html
Play Date: 01/22/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$82.08; +3.38; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Double bottom. VIP is back at it, blasting higher Monday on strong volume and clearing the 'hump' in the middle of a short 7 week base. Used the 50 day EMA on the second leg low and bounced up from there. Great volume on the break higher. Looking to move in as it continues higher and then again after a successful test of this initial break higher.
Volume: 1.56M Avg Volume: 742.225K
BUY POINT: $82.42 Volume=765K Target=$99.45 Stop=$79.45
POSITION: VIQ GQ - July $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vip.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/22/2007
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$30.02; -0.59; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Put. NVLS faded back to test the 50 day EMA the first two weeks of the year, testing a strong November and December run. Then it gapped lower Thursday in the chip wreck, tried the 90 day SMA (30.77) Friday, and then rolled back over Monday. Looking to move in if the chips get no relief from the TXN earnings. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 5.468M Avg Volume: 5.424M
BUY POINT: $29.87 Volume=6M Target=$28.00 Stop=$30.31
POSITION: NLQ OF - Mar. $30p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvls.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
DIGE (Digene Corp.--$51.28; -0.78; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dige.html
EARNINGS: 2-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. After the strong surge Friday, DIGE eased back on lower, average trade, making a modest test of that break higher out of its 7 week base. The test sets up a better entry for us. To recap: Solid volume surge Friday as DIGE surged as well, clearing a short base. Nice little consolidation of the last 2006 run after the breakout from a 6 month base. As noted last week, we are seeing this short type of pattern set up as a consolidation of that late 2006 run. Excellent break higher and looking to take some positions on a continued break higher and then again on a successful test. A biotech with a great technical pattern to go along with the pattern that is going to send it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 460.642K Avg Volume: 385.281K
BUY POINT: $52.38 Volume=400K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.95
POSITION: QDG FJ - June $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dige.html
Play Date: 01/18/2007
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$32.99; -0.56; optionable): Game sofware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Faded back to the 18 day EMA on the close, still working on the handle to its short 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA as support. Nice short base after a solid run higher the second half of 2006. A common pattern leaders have formed after that late 2006 run higher. Set up well to break higher.
Volume: 689.103K Avg Volume: 1.226M
BUY POINT: $34.21 Volume=1.9M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.78
POSITION: QHI FG - June $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/thqi.html
Play Date: 01/20/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$46.26; +0.93; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was up and above average Monday as WFR bumped higher, toying with the buy point and the breakout from its 2 week lateral range. Showing some excellent relative strength when the chips were selling and again Monday. If it can continue higher we are ready to move in. To recap: One of the semiconductor stocks that did not break down last week, WFR just moved laterally over the 10 day EMA and the December highs. Friday it gapped lower on the open but the recovered nicely for a gain. Excellent strength from this stock, chip or no. Looking for a solid move higher to start more positions.
Volume: 4.828M Avg Volume: 4.082M
BUY POINT: $46.34 Volume=6M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: WFR GI - July $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
PGH (Pengrowoth Energy Trust--$16.81; +0.04; optionable): Oil & gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pgh.html
EARNINGS: Early February.
STATUS: Put. Still holding at the 10 day EMA (16.75) on low volume after fading from the 50 day EMA (17.29) test last week. Still looks set to fall. To recap: PGH tried to base for 10 months but failed. It broke down into the current downtrend, using the 50 day EMA as resistance when it tried to turn the tide. Last week it tried again, rebounding up to tap the 50 day EMA on the Thursday high on low, below average volume. That low trade shows few buyers as it rebounded. Friday it slipped a bit and closed at the 10 day EMA. Money flow continues lower ahead of the stock and we are looking for PGH to break down below this near support after that meek rebound. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.141M Avg Volume: 2.17M
BUY POINT: $16.67 Volume=2M Target=$15.22 Stop=$17.05
POSITION: PGH PW - Apr. $17.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pgh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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