|
|
us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CTRP; IIVI; RMD; STLD; TECH; VIP
New Plays:
New Post-Splits:
Play Date: 01/23/2007
CHDX (Chindex Intl.--$24.01; +3.01; no options): Medical equipment, healthcare services in China, Hong Kong
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Huge volume Tuesday as CHDX surged out of its 9 week base that formed using the key 50 day EMA (18.65) as support. The move is taking it to a new all-time high and it is doing it with style. Looking to move in on a continued move as this type of breakaway can really run, then adding to positions as it makes the test and starts to rebound from that.
Volume: 683.942K Avg Volume: 159.768K
BUY POINT: $24.21 Volume=200K Target=$28.95 Stop=$22.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chdx.html
Play Date: 01/23/2007
COGN (Cognos--$43.21; -0.08; optionable): Business intelligence software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. COGN broke higher just over a week back on strong volume, moving out of an 8 week ascending base. It could not extend the breakout but faded back to the 18 day EMA this week, working laterally on low, below average volume to set up the next move higher and a try at a new all-time high. A solid market leader with strong growth fundamentals to match the pattern. Nice doji at the 18 day and looking for some volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 973.165K Avg Volume: 2.152M
BUY POINT: $43.89 Volume=3M Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.21
POSITION: CRQ EV - May $42.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cogn.html
Play Date: 01/23/2007
NX (Quanex--$37.67; +0.55; optionable): Aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nx.html
STATUS: Trend reversal. NX gapped higher last week on very strong volume clearing the down trendline from a downtrend that began last April. It failed at the 200 day SMA (36.85) in December, but as it sold this time it made a much shallower bottom, and then made the gap through the trendline and rallied to close above the 200 day. It has slid back the past four sessions, testing the move, but then started higher Tuesday on rising, average trade. Nice reversal, nice test, and now looks ready to continue. Plenty of room upside to bank us a nice gain.
Volume: 353.7K Avg Volume: 359.561K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=500K Target=$43.88 Stop=$36.62
POSITION: NX EG - May $35c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nx.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 01/23/2007
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$129.50; +5.40; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Tested back the past two weeks following a big surge to start the year. It held near support again as it continues higher up the 18 day after a September breakout. Looking to squeeze one more surge out of ICE. Good start Tuesday.
Volume: 2.675M Avg Volume: 3.111M
BUY POINT: $129.91 Volume=3.5M Target=$149.90 Stop=$124.95
POSITION: ICE FW - June $135c (49 delta) or ICE CV - Mar. $130c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ice.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATI: Wildcard that could announce 1-24-07
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07.
BCR: Forecast mid-January. No split announcement but gapped higher and now testing near support at the 18 day EMA
BDX: Forecast 1-25-07
BIDU: Forecast first week of February.
BPO: Forecast early February
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
CTSH: Forecast 2-9-07
FFIV: Potential split announcement 1-24-07. No word on a split but trading over 74 after the close.
GENZ: Tentatively set for 2-14-07
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07
GPRO: Tentatively forecast 2-13-07
JCI: Forecast 1-25-07
JCP: Forecast 1-19-07. No split announcement but received an upgrade and had a great end to the week.
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
TRMB: Forecast 1-25-07
UNP: Tentatively set for 1-25-07. Nice break higher on strong volume.
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast third week of January
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/23/2007
BNI (Burlington Northern--$80.10; +2.97; optionable): Railroads, energy
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bni.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Breaking higher on strong volume as it reported solid earnings Tuesday. Nice move out of a 9 month pattern, showing an elongated right shoulder. Solid break higher and looks ready to follow surging money flow higher.
Volume: 6.457M Avg Volume: 2.535M
BUY POINT: $81.55 Volume=3M Target=$97.95 Stop=$77.89
POSITION: BNI GP - July $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bni.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/16/2007
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$73.91; +0.45; optionable): Medical instruments. Earnings 1-25-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BDX broke higher out of a 13 week range between 70 and 74. It is fading to test this week, coming back toward the 10 day EMA (72.87) to make a higher low and set up the next run. Looking for the continued run on the earnings.
Volume: 733K Avg Volume: 1.009M
BUY POINT: $73.38 Volume=1.5M Target=$83.95 Stop=$71.98
POSITION: BDX FN - June $70c (66 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 01/18/2007
CLE (Claires Stores--$34.52; +0.13; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still set to make the break higher, holding that tight lateral range over the 10 and 18 day EMA. To recap: Very low volume the past 6 weeks as CLE forms the handle to its 10 month base that is setting it up for a new high. Strong money flow is leading higher even as CLE eases back. Excellent set up to the break to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.164M Avg Volume: 1.827M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=2.7M Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: CLE EG - May $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Play Date: 01/22/2007
JCP (J.C. Penney--$81.97; -0.24; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent test continues, posting a small loss Tuesday as JCP held the breakout over the November and December highs, sitting right on top of them on low volume. Excellent action setting up the next leg higher. To recap: JCP gapped higher last Thursday on strong volume after receiving an upgrade. Strong volume, strong price move, and now a test the past two sessions on lower trade, below average trade Monday. The move took JCP to a new all-time high, and this test is normal after such a move. May test a bit more, but the move was solid so want to be ready as it continues higher form this modest test.
Volume: 1.554M Avg Volume: 2.431M
BUY POINT: $83.05 Volume=2.5M Target=$99.75 Stop=$80.31
POSITION: JCP EP - May $80c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcp.html
Play Date: 01/06/2007
TJX (TJ Max--$29.84; -0.11; optionable): Department stores. Forecast mid-February.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still bumping up against the breakout from the pattern. Lost its nerve Tuesday as volume faded back to below average. Still looks solid for the breakout to follow that money flow higher. To recap: Spent the past couple of weeks trying to make the breakout from its 11 week pattern formed using the 50 day EMA as support. It bumped up into 30 several sessions, closing right at that level Friday on lower but still solidly above average volume. It moved to a new closing high and we want to see it continued higher to take our positions.
Volume: 2.914M Avg Volume: 3.363M
BUY POINT: New: 30.22 (orig. $29.88) Volume=5.1M Target=$35.85 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: TJX DF - Apr. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tjx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/13/2007
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$30.83; +0.28; optionable): Chili's etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid volume the past two sessions as EAT jumps off the 50 day EMA. Looks as if the dinner bell is about to ring, time to eat, etc. Nice 12 week pattern ready to take it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.584M Avg Volume: 1.581M
BUY POINT: $31.52 Volume=2M Target=$36.75 Stop=$30.11
POSITION: EAT GF - July $30c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 01/10/2007
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$29.39; +0.84; optionable): Lasers for precision industrial, military, medical, aerospace industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower to test the 50 day EMA and rebounding to post a nice gain on solid volume. Earnings were initially treated poorly (seems to be a shoot first then look at the results mentality) and then surging back. Nice shakeout and recovery and looks ready for the next run. To recap: After a nice breakout and jog higher from its 8 week ascending base, IIVI is testing, working laterally on lower volume. Another first test of the breakout that looks successful and ready to yield the next run higher.
Volume: 307.267K Avg Volume: 200.056K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=295K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.98
POSITION: JIU DF - Apr. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iivi.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/20/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$45.07; -1.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tomorrow is the big day for WFR as we see if it gets some positive treatment on its results. Excellent relative strength as the other chips cracked; would love to see that was indicating strong earnings. To recap: One of the semiconductor stocks that did not break down last week, WFR just moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (44.16) and the December highs. Friday it gapped lower on the open but the recovered nicely for a gain. Excellent strength from this stock, chip or no. Looking for a solid move higher to start more positions.
Volume: 6.045M Avg Volume: 4.125M
BUY POINT: $46.34 Volume=6M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: WFR GI - July $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trend trading stock
|
