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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 3 of 3
Plays:
MI (Marshall & Illsley--$60.18; -0.68; optionable): We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
STATUS: Gave up the 50 day MVA (78.05) Wednesday, but after the 'shooting star' doji it did not bounce, instead dropping again today as volume exploded to 573,400 (average 245,500). Looking at a further drop, perhaps after an attempt at the 50 day (78.05). There is possible support at the center of its former 'flying w' pattern (October) at 58, but we will target the 200 day MVA (73.07).
BUY POINT: From here or after a test up toward 61, a drop back through 59.80 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: February $65 puts to buy (MI NM).
TRDO (Intrado--$24.41; -1.33; optionable): Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trdo.html
STATUS: Was rolling up and down in the range of 26-31, but TRDO has been stymied under the 50 day MVA (27.12), and today dropped back hard (volume up to 410,000; average 297,000), closing at the November lows. Could get a put play on a continued drop, targeting the 200 day (19.89).
BUY POINT: Below 23.57 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: February $30 puts to buy (UNC NF).
JCI (Johnson Controls--$78.19; -0.77; optionable): Auto parts. Forecast to announce a split on 1-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time, the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JCI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was 0n 1-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Gapped through its 50 day MVA (78.63), but after hitting through its December lows (today hitting 77.10), JCI managed to close with a doji as volume picked up (404,900; average 389,000). The pattern indicates a possible bounce back, so we will see if the bounce can take it back over its 50 day, and perhaps toward a recovery going toward the announcement.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 80.25 on increased volume. Stop: 74.74. Breakout: 82.82 on volume of 600,000. Stop: 77.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $75 calls to buy (JCI AO - low open interest).
RYL (Ryland Group--$70.30; -2.63; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-24-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/r/ryl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RYL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: RYL broke from a cup with handle in early December, and after testing the move (breakout point 62) proceeded to make a nice run up to a new high of 75.85. It has pulled back the last week to the support of its 18 day MVA (70.58). It tried to bounce Wednesday, but at 73.50 it turned back, today moving down on lower volume (305,200; average 349,000) to close at the 18 day. We will see if it can hold here and produce another run as it goes toward the split. Target on move past the high: 85.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 73.50 on above average volume. Stop: 68.47. Breakout: 75.97 on above average volume. Stop: 70.65 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $70 calls to buy (RYL DN).
FDC (First Data--$78.50; +0.80; optionable): NEW INFORMATION: Forecast to announce a split on January 24 before the open, with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Did not get much of a bounce last week, and FDC is now trying to hang on. It has eased just under its short-term up trendline (from mid-October) while still holding its 18 day MVA (77.57). Going toward the forecast we will see if it can hold on with a consolidation over the 18 day, setting up another possible run. The 50 day MVA is below at 74.56. The high is 80.20.
BUY POINT: 80.32 on volume of 2.4 million (average 1.79 million; today up to 1.36 million). Stop: 74.70 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $75 calls to buy (FDC BO).
SRCL (Stericycle--$57.94; +0.38): Waste Management. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/s/srcl.html
STATUS: After its steady drop, SRCL caught support at the 50 day MVA (56.61). It tried to make a bounce the last couple of days, reaching over its short-term MVA's (18 day at 59.21) Wednesday but not able to hold the move. After dropping back, it showed a doji as volume remained low at 122,400 (average 294,000). It made four bounces up its 18 day MVA after breaking out, and after this test of the 50 day MVA, we could get a nice move back up.
BUY POINT: For aggressive positions, we can look at a move over 60 on above average volume. Stop: 55.91.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (URL BK).
PII (Polaris Industries--$58.65; -0.25; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-29-02 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/pii.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that PII has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-3-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: PII moved up Tuesday and tried to break from its ascending wedge (formed off a December 18 day MVA bounce, the second after it broke from a double bottom in November). It tried to go up Wednesday, hitting to 59.92 (over the buy point but on lower volume than we wanted) but pulling back for a 'tombstone' doji. That indicates another drop, but today it tested back to 58.22, showing another doji on reduced volume of 81,500 (average 119,000). Looking for PII to hold up here, although we could get another test of the 18 day. For a move we need to see that volume kick in. Strong money flow. Target: 70.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 59.50 on volume of 160,000 or higher. Stop: 54.71 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $55 calls to buy (PII CK).
PRE SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
CHS ($39.25; -0.76): Splits 3:2 effective 1-19-02. Struggling a bit, selling back hard through the recent support of its 18 day MVA (39.46). We will see if it can stop the drop (50 day below at 36.23). The aggressive play is a move over 40.65, with stock and/or February $40 calls to buy (CHS BH). Stop: 39.17.
Plays:
XRAY (Dentsply Internat--$50.68; +0.38; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: XRAY reached as high at 52.03 last week on an intraday spike, but after pulling back off of that move it has held in a lateral pattern over the 10 day MVA (50.04). Volume remains very strong (363,300; average 243,800), with the stock moving up slightly today and again taking out our buy point of 51. It is trying, but we want to see something sustained, riding our positions to the recent high and targeting 57. Strong money flow and buying.
PLAY: Over 52 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI). Stop: 48.
VAR (Varian Medical--$70.40; +0.30; optionable): Scientific & Tech. Instruments. Splits 2:1 effective 1-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Has formed something of a large pennant pattern since June. It has made some nice recent moves going toward the split, and we still have time for more if it can hold support. After a bounce from the 200 day MVA (67.87) Tuesday, it has slowed, making small gains on decreasing volume (and showing a "tombstone" after hitting the recent high of 72 yesterday). These signs point to a drop, and we will see if it can hold the 10 day MVA (69.41) and try to run again. 72 is the close resistance point.
PLAY: Aggressive: After holding the 10 day on a pullback, a move back over 71, with stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (VAR BM - under 100 open interest). Over recent high: Over 72, with stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (VAR BM).
PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
LUV ($18.01; +0.33): Has dropped on Tuesday's downgrade, falling through the 50 day and down toward the 200 day (18.27 and 17.83, respectively). We will see if it can recover.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($108.53; +0.55): Closed with a "hanging man" doji - a topping sign. ACS may be ready to pullback and digest some of its strong gains. As we have noted before, the stock is just too extended over its upper channel (101.50) for new positions. On a drop back through 107.25 we can look at selling some February $110 (or more aggressive, $105) calls (ACS BB or ACS BA), looking to buy them back on a test back to its former upper channel at 102 (although it could catch the 18 day again, at 103.87). It looks ready for a stronger drop.
AZO ($65.20; +1.00): Made a weaker push up today that stalled at the resistance from the November consolidation (when breached a former support can quickly become resistance). Still looking ripe for stronger selling and on a move through today's low (39.10) on above average volume (down to 1.14 million, average 1.4 million), we can look for February $70 puts to buy (AZO NN). Still targeting 60.
FLIR ($40.50; -1.14): Gave up the 50 day (41.25) again today as volume shot up to 353,000 (average 366,400). FLIR did test down to 39.10 before pulling up to close with a smaller loss on the day, but it is weak after its double tops and failed move up on those tops in December. If we see increased selling volume push FLIR down through today's low, we can consider an aggressive put play with February $50 puts to buy (FFQ NJ), keeping an eye on the December low of 35.61 as potential support, but targeting 34.
GTK ($44.00; +0.20): Trying to clear the short-term MVA's (18 day at 44.20), but volume is falling (down to 370,100, average 422,000) and it can't quite make it. Still in the pennant, with the 50 day (43.18) providing support for a strong push back up. If we get the upside move, the aggressive can look at positions on a strong move (volume of 500,000) over 44.50, with stock and/or February $40 calls to buy. GTK has had trouble at 46, and clearing that level is the real test, then we will see how it handles the high near 47.50.
IGT ($66.90; -0.96): Trying to hold the short-term MVA's as volume bounces around a bit. Still wary of a drop (which will stop us out) and a possible test of the 50 day at 62.93. The aggressive buy point is over 69 on above average volume, with stock and/or April $65 calls to buy (IGT DM). The recent high is 71.95.
SLM ($80.36; +0.59): Head and shoulders with a weak right shoulder. After last Friday's intraday test to the 200 day (77.74), SLM pulled up slightly and is now languishing around the 80 level (10 day at 80.82) on erratic volume. Riding remaining put positions for a fall back to the target of the 200 day.
STJ ($74.13; +0.78): STJ pushed back through the 50 day (73.47) today, but volume dropped considerably (570,600, average 680,800). For an aggressive play, still looking for a solid rebound. On a move over 75, stock and/or April $70 calls to buy (STJ DN).
TJX ($40.61; +0.71): Pulled off the intraday high of 40.93 to close (at its upper channel), and with the difficulty at that level we will see if the stock will pull back. Still carefully protecting positions from a breach of the 18 day (39.24) and a test of the 50 day (37.74).
Plays:
APPB (Applebee's--$35.62; +0.62; optionable): Restaurants. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: APPB pulled back to support at the 18 day MVA (34.80), but is holding. After its recent breakout and then test of the 50 day (33.71), we are looking for the stock to hold the 18 day and continue to trend up that support - a typical move on a strong breakout. For additional positions we want to see a solid move over the December high. Target: 42.
BUY POINT: 37.01 on above average volume (430,000; today down to 155,700). Stop: 34.42.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (AQB BG).
BBY (Best Buy--$73.77; -1.39; optionable): Retail - Electronics. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-99 with a board meeting. The stock price was $95. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 4-24-98 with a board meeting. The stock price was $71. The annual shareholder meeting was 6-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: High volume doji. BBY made a nice bounce up from 65 in December on positive earnings, but is now struggling with resistance at 75. It tried to clear that level yesterday, but the gap up to open turned into a high volume reversal, followed by today's gap down to close with a higher volume doji over support at the 10 day MVA (73.72). Still looking for support to hold (18 day is at 72.80), and a strong move up. Target on a breakout: 85.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 75 on continued strong volume (up today to 5.18 million, average 3.25 million). Stop: 71.35 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $70 calls to buy (BBY CN).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
FMBI ($28.55; +0.03): Split 5:4 effective 12-17-01. Little overall change. Still showing some volatile price/volume action with some wild intraday ranges and still struggling to hold the short-term MVA's, today closing just under the 10 day (28.65). Not much momentum here but it seems to have found support at the 28.50 level, and if this was a last shakeout we could get a move. On a move over 29.50 on strong volume (looking for 97,200), stock.
Play:
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$40.20; -0.41; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 12-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
STATUS: After last Friday's great breakout to a new high, (on news of being added to the S&P 400 midcap index), CBH has moved into a brief consolidation and holding the 40 level (10 day at 39.70). Today it hit a new high, but fell back to close with a small loss on the day. With this increased volume (up to 474,300, average 216,100), we may see more of a pullback and are looking for the 10 day and the former pattern highs (39.60 from the December ascending wedge) to provide support. If we get a hold and then a run, targeting 45 initially.
PLAY: After a lower volume pullback holds support, a move over 40.50 on increased volume, with stock and/or March $37.50 calls to buy (CBH CU). Stop: 37.66.
CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$32.13; -0.27): Retail Apparel. Split 3:2 effective 12-13-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: Still testing the recent breakout, and still holding the 18 day (31.80). Volume fell to 331,500 (average 365,700) as CHBS tried to push through the 10 day (32.56), but fell back to close with a loose doji. Still waiting for a bounce here, but we may see more of a consolidation before setting up a move. The breakout high is 35.76.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 33 on increased volume, with stock and/or March $30 calls to buy (URH CF - low open interest).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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