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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: HMSY; SNCR
Wednesday night play results:
CRM: Faded modestly on lower volume.
GIGM: Gapped higher but faded to post a lower volume loss. That is okay as it may form a bit of a handle here to give it a launch pad.
TSM: Earnings were not treated with respect.
VTIV: Gapped higher but could not hold the move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/25/2007
ARXT (Adams Respiratory Therapeutics--$45.00; -0.03; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arxt.html
EARNINGS: 2-7-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice test the past week, holding at the 10 day EMA (44.85) on the lows the past three sessions. Excellent action to set up the next break higher and in the right sector for a more defensive market. Good fundamentals growth rates to go with the solid technical pattern.
Volume: 501.853K Avg Volume: 337.465K
BUY POINT: $46.55 Volume=506K Target=$54.95 Stop=$44.68
POSITION: PKQ GI - July $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/arxt.html
Play Date: 01/25/2007
QGEN (Qiagen--$16.07; +0.01; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qgen.html
EARNINGS: 2-12-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped sharply Thursday as QGEN held the 18 day EMA for the third session as it tests the strong break higher two weeks back that took it out of a 13 week reverse head and shoulders base. Money flow remains strong as it makes this pullback. This is one of the right sectors for a market that turns a bit defensive. Looking for more solid trade as it breaks higher from this test.
Volume: 761.541K Avg Volume: 378.426K
BUY POINT: $16.27 Volume=536K Target=$19.22 Stop=$15.77
POSITION: QXE EC - May $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qgen.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/25/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$31.73; -1.15; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 2-7-07
STATUS: Put. NVDA was a 2006 leader, rallying just about up to the end of the year. In 2007 it is being treated as an unwanted cousin that has been around the house too long. It broke below the 90 day SMA a week back after gamely bouncing off of that level on the first leg lower. It recovered to test that level but turned back over Thursday. Classic downtrend action as NVDA sells off to start setting up the next base. Going to take some of the downside action as it fades. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 10.28M Avg Volume: 10.79M
BUY POINT: $31.55 Volume=12M Target=$29.35 Stop=$32.05
POSITION: UVA OZ - Mar. $32.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
Play Date: 01/25/2007
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$43.73; -0.57; optionable)
STATUS: Put. The large caps were loved early in the year and now are not so favored. MSFT announced earnings and was up some after hours and that may give the Q's a pop in the morning. NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are currently under distribution with more on Thursday. Looking for a breakdown through the 50 day EMA (43.65) to move in. If it gives us the move we will play it. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 158.464M Avg Volume: 113.485M
BUY POINT: $43.63 Volume=120M Target=$42.60 Stop=$43.78
POSITION: QQQ OR - Mar. $47p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qqqq.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
CELG: Really struggling, falling back from the 50 day EMA on rising volume Thursday.
GME: Heavy volume as GME broke below the 50 day EMA after that December and early January double top.
MRVL: About to fail at the 50 day EMA yet again.
NVDA: Heading lower after failing at the 90 day MA.
WEBX: Broke back over the 50 day MA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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