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stock recommendation, stock market recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ATHR; CROX; ICE; PAY
Thursday night play results:
ARXT: Nice doji at the 10 day EMA on low volume, and still set to break higher
QGEN: Gapped higher on strong volume
NVDA: Sold off on volume; managed to recover some ground but still ready to head lower.
QQQQ: Recovered off the selling but closed below the 50 day EMA on high volume.
New Plays: Some excellent stocks with strong fundamentals growth rates to match their solid technical patterns.
Upside:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
KNOT (The Knot--$30.06; +0.44; optionable): Marriage assistance services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knot.html
EARNINGS: 2-12-07
STATUS: Test breakout. No matter what the economic times, people get married, and in the internet age they turn to the net more and more to help out with registry, logistics, hideous bridesmaid dresses, and transportation arrangements to get all of those relatives you never see at the event so you can score more presents. KNOT is the leader in this niche, and it is currently testing the breakout to a new high from a 6 week cup base that formed over the 50 day EMA. It has come back to test the 10 day EMA on lower volume last week, ready to make a higher low as it vows for a new high. Yes, pretty corny, but the pattern is not.
Volume: 411.888K Avg Volume: 557.198K
BUY POINT: $30.36 Volume=825K Target=$36.45 Stop=$28.89
POSITION: BQC GF - July $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/knot.html
Play Date: 01/27/2007
SOHU (Sohu.com--$26.03; +0.45; optionable): Online search in China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Breakout test. We moved out of SOHU last week in an abundance of caution when it sold on strong volume and closed below the 18 day EMA. Friday it recovered that level and looks to be making a higher low over the November and December highs, holding the breakout from the 8 month cup with handle base. Money flow remains strong, holding well ahead of price on this test. Set up well; just need to see some solid upside volume as SOHU resumes the breakout.
Volume: 307.465K Avg Volume: 578.687K
BUY POINT: $26.48 Volume=865K Target=$31.75 Stop=$25.21
POSITION: UZK FE - June $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sohu.html
Play Date: 01/27/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$26.86; +0.36; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: 2-13-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WNR drilled its way onto the scene a year ago as a new issue (man, the jokes are not getting any better). Unlike many energy stocks of late, it did not roll over as oil sold off and energy stocks as well. Indeed it used the general pullback to form a new base, setting it up for a run into new all-time high territory. Nice lateral move to end last week on low volume after a strong surge Tuesday on strong, above average volume completed the right side of the base. A very refined pattern; may take a day or two to complete the handle but a solid set up for a new breakout.
Volume: 147.9K Avg Volume: 503.253K
BUY POINT: $27.31 Volume=750K Target=$32.75 Stop=$25.80
POSITION: WNR FE - June $25c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wnr.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$25.55; -0.16; optionable): Online marketing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice lower volume test Thursday and Friday, tapping at the 10 day EMA (24.96) on the low and rebounding to close near flat, easily holding the breakout over the December high. Nice surge off the 50 day EMA to test the early November breakout from a 10 month base. This tap gives VCLK its bearings on this new breakout to a new all-time high. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.202M Avg Volume: 2.434M
BUY POINT: $25.94 Volume=2.8M Target=$30.68 Stop=$24.48
POSITION: QCS FE - June $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vclk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$19.77; -0.12; optionable): Multimedia communications software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
EARNINGS: 3-15-07
STATUS: Put. CMVT is in a continuing downtrend, fading below the 200 day SMA (20.95) as it works lower and lower. It fell back from the 200 day this month, tried to hold at some price support this week, but is cracking through that support, following its weak money flow lower. No real volume on the moves, but the support at 20 is eroding. Looking to move in as it breaks down. A move to the target lands a 70%ish gain.
Volume: 1.925M Avg Volume: 4.618M
BUY POINT: $19.66 Volume=4.6M Target=$18.38 Stop=$19.95
POSITION: CQV OD - Mar. $20p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cmvt.html
Play Date: 01/27/2007
DGII (Digi Intl.--$12.48; +0.02; optionable): Networking and communication hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgii.html
EARNINGS: 1-18-07
STATUS: Put. DGII reported earnings two weeks back and the market was not kind. DGII started digging lower, crashing the 200 day SMA (12.97) and selling below 12. It spend last week rebounding on lower volume. Hitting the 10 day EMA (12.73) Thursday and then fading back. Money flow is in the toilet and swirling lower. Looking to move in as DGII turns down again. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 81.35K Avg Volume: 137.703K
BUY POINT: $12.34 Volume=140K Target=$11.39 Stop=$12.62
POSITION: JGW OV - Mar. $12.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dgii.html
Play Date: 01/27/2007
SIRF (Sirf Tech Holdings--$24.85; +0.09; optionable): GPS chips for mobile devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sirf.html
EARNINGS: 1-30-07
STATUS: Put. SIRF double topped in November and December, gapping lower from those twin peaks. It rallied back to start 2007, but the 200 day SMA stopped it cold the second week of January. It tumbled lower on rising trade, the bounced last week on lower volume, stalling at the 10 day EMA (25.03). Looking for this near support to stall it out and turn it back down. Looking to move in and surf SIRF lower to the target, a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 1.209M Avg Volume: 2.233M
BUY POINT: $24.44 Volume=2.2M Target=$22.42 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: QIR OE - Mar. $25p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sirf.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Holding at 85. We want to see it hold around here, and as the hoopla from that early January iPhone surge wears off we expect to see AAPL hold and start to recover. Worth taking some positions at that point if NASDAQ holds on in this general range.
AKAM: Now that is relative strength, ignoring the selling and consolidating along the 50 day EMA.
CELG: Trying to make a stand at the 90 day MA, bouncing off that level on the intraday low.
DRIV: Continues its lateral move of the past week, trying to put in a bottom to rebound. We will see, but likely needs a few more weeks of basing.
GME: Game stocks and stores are losing the game so to speak, tumbling lower to end last week. Heading toward some support at 50.
GOOG: Earnings out 1-31-07, and they could be quite strong. Like the hold at the 50 day SMA for a higher low.
NVDA: Very heavy, falling Friday on the strongest volume of the week.
WEBX: Recovered above the 50 day EMA in a surprising show of strength. Working on its larger cup base, trying to put in the bottom.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock market recommendation
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