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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CHDX; CRM; CROX; EAT; ICE; JCI; JCP; KSS; MBT; RL
New Plays:
New Post-Split plays:
Play Date: 02/01/2007
ACH (Aluminum Corp of China--$24.52; +1.98; optionable): Chinese aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ach.html
STATUS: Double bottom. After the China scare earlier in the week when an official 'warned' of a bubble, those stocks are rebounding. ACH blasted higher Thursday on strong volume, clearing the 'hump' in the middle of its 6 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA on the lows as support. This is part of a larger 10 month cup with handle base, this smaller pattern being the handle. Ready to move in as it continues higher and then adding on a test.
Volume: 1.636M Avg Volume: 674.269K
BUY POINT: $24.68 Volume=700K Target=$29.65 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: ACH EX - May $22.50c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ach.html
Play Date: 02/01/2007
KSWS (K-Swiss--$32.40; +0.78; optionable): Footwear, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
EARNINGS: 2-22-07
STATUS: Cup. Volume surged Wednesday and Thursday as KSWS recovered the 50 day EMA (31.65) and rallied off that level Thursday. A nice 12 week cup has formed, using the 200 day SMA in early January as support. Looking to take some positions as KSWS continues this move and then adding to the position when it tests. It has plenty of room to run upside and make us some nice money. Retail is back on the front burner after the holiday correction.
Volume: 494.51K Avg Volume: 231.377K
BUY POINT: $32.68 Volume=250K Target=$38.95 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: SWU GE - July $30c (78 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
Play Date: 02/01/2007
MON (Monsanto--$54.84; -0.25; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, genetic engineering, etc. Oh yes, and Round Up
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 1-4-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock that has made us some great money on its breakout run, MON is coming back to test the 10 day EMA (54.65) that is acting as support on this move. MON broke out from a 14 week double bottom with handle base in December, rallied and then tested the 50 day EMA. It is now making its second test of the 10 day EMA since bouncing off the 50 day. That still leaves the stock plenty of upside in this breakout run.
Volume: 3.918M Avg Volume: 3.218M
BUY POINT: $55.22 Volume=4.2M Target=$62.45 Stop=$54.24
POSITION: MON GK - July $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
Leaders: These leaders have never split but have all the attributes of a split: strong leader
Play Date: 02/01/2007
BSC (Bear Stearns--$165.28; +0.43; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
EARNINGS: 3-13-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BSC broke out from a 5.5 month base in October and rallied up the 18 day EMA for 5 bounces, a very strong breakout run. Indeed, it made us some solid money on that run. After that move up the short term moving averages a strong stock will test back to the 50 day EMA (161.82), hold, and then move off that level and start another run. BSC looks just about ready to do that, coming off the 50 day EMA on some rising, average volume Thursday. Ready to move in as it clears it clears the 18 day EMA (165.62).
Volume: 1.409M Avg Volume: 1.378M
BUY POINT: $165.89 Volume=1.8M Target=$179.95 Stop=$161.65
POSITION: BSC DM - Apr. $165c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsc.html
Play Date: 02/01/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$212.00; -0.16; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: 3-11
STATUS: Test breakout. Made us some nice money on the last couple of runs and now it has tested back, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (210.31) this week. Wednesday it bounced higher on strong volume and Thursday it tested, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to hold the 10 day EMA on the close. Looking for a strong move from here to start positions and squeeze out another run on this rally.
Volume: 5.961M Avg Volume: 5.231M
BUY POINT: $212.88 Volume=6.5M Target=$231.90 Stop=$209.55
POSITION: GPY GB - July $210c (57 delta) or GPY DB - July $210c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gs.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATI: No announcement with earnings and struggled a bit on Tuesday but ahs kept on moving higher.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07. Struggling but has held the 90 day MA. Will see if it can put anything together hear but don't really like the pattern heading into the earnings.
BDX: Announced a dividend versus a split and has run since.
BIDU: Forecast first week of February. No split announcement this week and it fell hard to the 50 day SMA Thursday but volume was still low. Volatile and will let it bounce.
BNI: Researching date. Excellent break higher this week.
BPO: Forecast early February. No split announcement yet but what a move underway.
CEPH: Forecast 2-12-07. Showing signs of recovering.
CLB: Forecast 2-15-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
CTSH: Forecast 2-9-07
GENZ: Tentatively set for 2-14-07
GES: Forecast 2-14-07
GILD: Tentatively forecast 1-31-07. Blast off with a huge gap higher.
GPRO: Tentatively forecast 2-13-07. Still holding the 200 day SMA, trying to set up for the break higher.
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again after a quick test of the 10 day EMA
JCP: Forecast 2-22-07. Finally got the move!
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07. Sweet run underway
MER: Researching date. Started higher Thursday
RL: Forecast 2-7-07. Looking dapper with the two moves the past two sessions.
SRCL: Forecast 2-7-07
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast 2-12-07. Jumped higher and now looking for a test of 42.75 for a new entry point.
XTO: Forecast mid-February
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/01/2007
GENZ (Genzyme--$65.82; +0.09; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
EARNINGS: 2-14-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. GENZ has formed a double bottom with handle the past 4 months as part of a larger base. It came back to the 50 day EMA (65.38) over the past three weeks, moving laterally along that level the past week. That support stemmed the pullback in the handle. GENZ is trading in a tighter range as it works along the 50 day, setting up the breakout move. Like how volume was rather low on the pullback and is now swelling some as it gets ready to move back up. Money flow is excellent, running well ahead of price. Ready to move in as it breaks higher.
Volume: 2.396M Avg Volume: 2.139M
BUY POINT: $66.22 Volume=3M Target=$75.95 Stop=$64.88
POSITION: GZQ GM - July $65c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$73.87; +1.76; optionable): Clothing
BACKGROUND: No splits in GES' history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: 2-14-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. We were wanting some good volume a la JCP but trade held low all session. Given this lower volume move it will likely test back toward the 10 day EMA (72.10) barring a flood of volume Friday. After the run in the market that is not as likely, so we are looking for a test sometime early next week, or it may do it intraday Friday, and use that as a buy point. To recap: GES is in the midst of a strong run, coming back to test the 18 day EMA after breaking higher form an 8 week flat base in late December. Nice first test of that break higher, easing back on low volume to test and set up the next run higher in this move.
Volume: 616.8K Avg Volume: 918.936K
BUY POINT: New: Test 72ish then pick it up on the rebound (orig. $72.48) Volume=1M Target=$83.45 Stop=$70.38
POSITION: GES FO - June $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/30/2007
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$41.98; -0.10; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
EARNINGS: 2-14-07
STATUS: Breakout test. A pair of dojis on the 10 day EMA (41.98) the past two sessions as DADE primes itself for the break higher to continue the breakout move from mid-January. Excellent set up with strong money flow leading the way. To recap: Broke out of a 5.5 month reverse head and shoulders base two weeks back, surging higher to 43 on the move. Strong volume as it made the break. It came back to test the past week, holding at the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Excellent breakout and strong money flow is holding up well as DADE makes this test. Ready to rebound and continue the breakout, and we are ready to move in as it does.
Volume: 452.958K Avg Volume: 645.689K
BUY POINT: $42.38 Volume=965K Target=$48.95 Stop=$41.44
POSITION: JDQ EH - May $40c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
NYX (NYSE Group--$101.69; +1.71; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Starting up off the 50 day SMA (110.10) Thursday on rising but still below average volume. It has held its test of the century mark and on some more volume it is a buy as it continues higher. To recap: Sold back after an early January surge, but held the line last week, making a higher low at the 50 day EMA and bouncing. Good volume Friday as it moved again, rising off the 50 day SMA (99.60). Ran into some headwinds when it hit 100, but it has worked through that with the current 8 week base. Like the higher low, and looking for a break higher from here on continued volume similar to that seen Wednesday and Friday as NYX posted gains. Strong leader and can fly when it gets going.
Volume: 5.158M Avg Volume: 5.75M
BUY POINT: $102.44 Volume=8M Target=$122.00 Stop=$99.21
POSITION: NYX FT - June $100c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nyx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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