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Begin part 2 of 3
Part 3 will be forwarded later today.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon Market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor Market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACH 02/01 Dbl btm 24.45 -0.07 24.68 29.65 1M 700K 23.05
Buy Not Hit. Tested the Thursday high volume move and then reversed
to close flat on lower but still below avg volume.
It is now ready to continue the move higher.
ADS 01/16 DB hdl 66.43 +0.23 66.39 75.95 802K 1.3M 66.28
Current. Overcame the big Thursday volatility on earnings, holding
the 18 day EMA on the low & showing a doji at the
10 day EMA. Good hold by this leader that reported
truly good earnings & left it set up to continue its move.
AKAM 01/03 Test 50 55.55 +0.04 53.55 61.35 2.9M 7.6M 54.31
Current. Gapped lower to the 18 day EMA on a donwgrade. After leading NASD in 2006 we expected more of this. It showed strength, however, bouncing off that near support to close flat & keep the pattern in tact & make a higher low to set the next breakout.
AMT 01/08 Flat 39.94 -0.08 39.38 45.45 1.1M 3.5M 39.25
Current. Working laterally on continued low volume, tapping
the 18 day EMA on the lows, trying to consolidate the
strong early January move. Earnings late February.
ANST 12/26 Cup hdl 27.77 -0.10 28.36 33.95 135K 400K 27.95
Current. Continues laterally in a narrowing range right above
the 50 day EMA (27.44). It is setting up but looks
to have another week of work ahead of it. Earnings
mid-February.
ARXT 01/25 Cup hdl 45.07 -0.93 46.55 54.95 746K 506K 44.68
Buy Not Issued. Gapped back down on even higher volume than the solid
upside Thursday move. Earnings 2-7-07, and it looks
as if that is what will have to break it out. Never
like when sellers immediately reverse a strong move.
BEAV 01/10 Cup hdl 29.68 +0.04 28.81 34.45 1.1M 1M 28.54
Current. Strong midweek break higher was tested Thurs & Fri on lower but still above avg trade. Nice action ahead of earnings this week. Earnings 2-5-07 before the open.
BITS 02/01 Cup hdl 10.20 -0.13 10.68 12.85 89K 185K 9.93
Buy Not Hit. Faded back on below average volume, still working on
forming the handle to its nice looking 15 week base.
Just being patient for the break higher.
BMC 01/10 Test BO 35.73 +0.47 35.48 40.95 1.4M 2.4M 34.28
Entered today. A good week, bouncing off the 50 day EMA & rallying
through the Friday close.
BMC 12/16 Flat 35.73 +0.47 33.10 39.75 1.4M 2.5M 33.98
Target Hit.
CHDX 01/23 Cup hdl 24.18 +1.18 24.32 28.95 281K 200K 22.62
Current. Nice save off the 18 day EMA test early in the week
on that China scare, rebounding Thursday & Friday,
moving on strong volume. Excellent action as it moves
toward a new high.
CRM 01/24 DB hdl 46.75 +1.34 43.19 51.85 2.2M 1.5M 44.98
Target Hit. Took some interim gain as CRM surged higehr for a third
session, making it 6 upside sessions in a row. Letting
it run higher for us. Earnings mid-February
CROX 01/20 Test BO 54.79 +3.03 49.00 58.95 2.9M 2.5M 52.62
Target Hit. Took some interim gain as our second position in CROX
surged. Nice 11% stock and 42% option gain, and letting
it run further for us.
CROX 01/08 Cup 54.79 +3.03 46.27 53.95 2.9M 2M 52.68
Current. A strong high volume surge Friday to drive the stock
sharply higher to end the week. Excellent strength.
DO 01/30 Cup hdl 84.58 -0.17 83.42 95.95 3.3M 5.7M 82.44
Current. Very solid week for DO and we caught it as it broke higher Tuesday. Rallied up to 50 but had trouble punching through for now. Will allow it a modest test but then has to make a higher low and break on through. Earnings 2-8-07.
GIGM 01/24 Cup 11.67 -0.07 11.48 13.95 1.1M 1.3M 11.08
Current. Modest fade back after the strong Wednesday break higher.
Nice low volume fade to test.
GS 02/01 Test 18 213.43 +1.43 212.88 231.90 3.5M 6.5M 209.55
Entered today. Not a lot of trade but GS bounced smartly off the 18
day EMA after started the session lower, gapping down
to that level.
HLTH 12/07 Saucer 14.43 -0.02 12.38 14.85 5.7M 5M 13.95
Current. Outstanding surge for the week, showing a doji Friday
on rising, slightly above avg volume. May need to come
back to test after such a surge & worth taking the
options if it does & letting the stock make the test.
HMSY 01/24 Test BO 20.06 +0.28 19.02 22.75 227K 333K 18.95
Current. Continues the excellent run higher after the Monday
surge off the 10 day EMA. Strength begetting strength.
Earnings 2-28-07.
HMSY 12/14 Asc Bse 20.06 +0.28 14.98 18.31 227K 331K 18.95
Current. Continues the excellent run higher after the Monday
surge off the 10 day EMA. Strength begetting strength.
Earnings 2-28-07.
ICE 01/23 Test 18 142.47 +6.92 133.00 151.00 4.8M 3.5M 139.95
Target Hit. Took some interim gain as ICE surged off the 18 day
EMA this week and really kicked it into gear on Friday
with volume surging as well. 2-7-07.
ILMN 01/22 Cup 37.17 -4.39 41.52 49.88 6.3M 1.2M 39.96
Current. Earnings were hardly illuminating and the stock gapped
lower. It held some price support at 36 and bounced
back up. Will see if it can make it to the 90 day MA
(38.65) & what it does there for a better exit point.
INFY 01/03 Asc Bse 58.94 +0.23 56.13 65.65 1.6M 1.6M 57.22
Current. Took some interim gain on this position as INFY added
a bit more to the week's gains. INFY is moving higher
but we are still waiting for the big breakaway move
by INFY.
ININ 01/29 Test 50 19.95 -0.14 20.52 24.65 104K 400K 19.08
Buy Not Issued. Doji at the 18 day EMA as ININ continues to work laterally
in a narrow range on very low volume. ININ IN an INteresting
position to rally higher. Earnings 2-12-07.
JNJ 01/18 Cup 66.58 -0.43 68.08 78.45 11M 10M 66.12
Current. After bouncing Tuesday thru Thursday off the 90 day
MA it gave most of it back Friday on rising volume.
Managed to hold the 50 day EMA, but will have to bounce
off that level early this week. Earnings were 1-23-07
KNOT 01/27 Test BO 30.20 -0.38 31.02 37.32 491K 825K 29.78
Current. As volatile as ever, giving back the Monday breakout, but closing at the 10 day EMA. Volatile but as long as it trends higher you have to let it make these moves. Earnings mid-February.
LVLT 01/06 DB hdl 6.09 -0.01 6.12 7.65 21M 35M 6.22
Current. Still holding at the 18 day EMA on low volume, trying
to gain some footing for a move higher. This is the
week it needs to show it. Earnings are 2-8-07 & if
it is not moving by then we will likely close it.
MA 01/20 Test BO 110.96 -0.96 107.09 121.00 1.1M 4.5M 108.97
Current. Lost some ground Friday but on very low volume and
still moving nicely up the 10 day EMA. Earnings 2-9-07.
MA 01/04 Cup 110.96 -0.96 101.11 119.75 1.1M 3.5M 108.97
Current.
MDRX 01/18 Cup hdl 30.10 -0.89 29.09 34.75 974K 1.2M 29.55
Current. After a strong move from midweek MDRX tested Friday,
giving back a chunk but holding the break higher and
on lower trade. Trending up the 10 day EMA so we will
let it continue to work.
MER 01/31 Test 50 95.01 +0.23 94.74 112.95 4.1M 5.5M 92.95
Current. Modest gain Friday after the Wed & Thurs jump off the
50 day EMA test. Need to see some better trade on
this one as this next week gets underway.
MNST 12/11 Cup hdl 52.91 +1.50 48.14 56.78 1.3M 2.4M 51.22
Target Hit. MNST surged higher for the second session after the
breakout. Took some 9.3% stock gain & 35.6% option
gain ($2600/10 contracts). Letting the rest run on
a strong move.
MON 02/01 Test BO 55.55 +0.71 55.69 62.95 3M 4.2M 54.24
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day EMA. Fairly volatile session
but held most of the gain and we took some positions.
MR 12/26 Test 50 24.75 +0.18 24.45 29.75 420K 1.1M 24.75
Current. Held the 10 and 18 day EMA the past week when it tested,
and is set up very nicely to make the new breakout
from this 8 week base. Earnings 3rd week of February.
MRVC 12/20 Cup hdl 4.15 +0.06 3.72 4.78 796K 2M 3.97
Target Hit. Edged higher on low volume so took some of the gain
off the table (11.2% stock, 18.5% option). Earnings
2-15-07 and we would like to see it pick up the pace
ahead of those results.
MS 01/31 Test 50 84.04 +0.19 83.68 99.75 3.9M 4.8M 81.95
Current. Continued higher Friday as the bounce off the 50 day
EMA continued but on lower volume. Still trending
higher but needs some more volume.
NTLI 01/31 Dbl btm 26.99 +0.08 27.42 31.55 2.1M 4.5M 26.48
Buy Not Hit. Doji that tapped hte 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded.
Still ready for the break higher from a nicely formed
base. Earnings 11-8-07 before the open.
NYX 01/13 Cup hdl 99.50 -2.19 105.85 124.95 9.8M 5.2M 101.55
Current. Tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounced to recoup
much of the loss after reporting earnings. Has made
the test and rebound and now has to show us something
off of this test of key support.
OII 01/30 Test 50 39.82 +0.15 40.05 46.25 516K 1M 38.22
Buy Not Hit. Still working laterally on below average volume, holding
the 10 day EMA on the lows and trying to get through
resistance at 40. 2-21-07.
PAY 01/13 Test BO 39.92 -0.09 37.56 44.95 528K 1M 38.98
Current. Stalled out some at the end of the week after a strong
mid-January run. Just taking a breather to set up the
next run. When it makes this move it will be ripe to
take some gain off the table. EArnings 3-1-07.
RIO 01/30 Test BO 34.02 -0.08 33.05 39.65 7.1M 9M 32.54
Current. Modest test back on Friday, reaching lower but then
rebounding to close flat on lower volume. Nice stair
stepping action up the 10 day EMA. Earnings 3-7-07.
SIMO 01/31 Test BO 19.94 +0.94 19.00 22.78 2.9M 550K 18.89
Current. Sweet gap and run higher on earnings as SIMO put on
another good session on huge volume. It appears to
be attracting a lot more attention to itself among
the big money players, and that is only good for us.
SKX 01/18 Test 18 36.11 +0.56 34.97 41.88 276K 650K 34.94
Current. Continues its move higher after bouncing off the 18
day EMA midweek. No volume but it is still moving higher
so we are just going to let it run as far as it will.
SNCR 12/28 Test 18 15.72 +0.67 14.95 18.32 275K 295K 14.95
Current. Held the 18 day EMA all week and then made a solid advance on Friday with some rising though below avg volume. Very solid pattern that is ready to follow the money flow higher. Earnings 7-6-07 after the close. Like it & likely to let it run thru earnings.
SNDA 12/26 Test 18 22.04 +0.03 21.66 25.99 652K 750K 22.04
Current. Struggled on the China slowdown worries. It tested
lower Friday but rebounded to close flat on rising
trade. This is where we need to see it hold and start
back up.
SOHU 01/27 Test BO 26.95 +0.63 26.59 31.95 556K 865K 26.25
Current. After thumping back to the 18 day Tuesday through Thursday on the China slowdown issues, SOHU found a toehold and jumped higher Friday on rising, above avg volume. Ready to follow that money flow that is rising above the price.
TWLL 01/08 Test 50 17.70 +0.54 17.32 20.79 449K 331K 16.98
Current. Nice break higher on very strong volume as TWLL moves off the 50 day EMA after a two week consolidation. It faded back slightly from the buy point but the move was holding & on strong trade so we took positions. Earnings 2-14-07.
VCLK 01/27 Test BO 25.41 -0.76 26.10 30.85 1.5M 2.8M 25.04
Current.
VCLK 01/03 Test 18 25.41 -0.76 24.34 29.32 1.5M 3.5M 25.04
Current. Sagging back toward the end of the week though no real
volume on the fade toward the 18 day EMA (25.13).
Looking for it to hold near the 18 day EMA and resume
the breakout move. Earnings 2-21-07.
WEBX 01/29 Trnd Rv 46.39 +1.36 37.25 42.75 3.1M 900K 44.22
Current. Still continuing higher after that explosive Thursday
move on its strong earnings. Moving the stop higher
and when it shows a slowdown it is worth taking the
options but letting some stock continue higher.
WMS 01/09 DB hdl 40.64 +0.66 37.84 44.95 444K 450K 39.89
Target Hit. Nice break higher on rising volume Friday and we took some interim gain on the stock (7.5%) and options (35%, $2000/10 contracts) given earnings are 2-5-07 after the close. Wanted to lock some gain in & then let it ride into earnings.
WNR 01/27 Cup hdl 27.43 +0.06 27.75 33.32 200K 750K 26.55
Buy Not Issued. Still working on a nice handle to its base with a low
volume lateral move as the 10 day EMA rises to meet
it. Earnings mid-February but company has not confirmed
a date.
XING 01/16 Trnd Rv 15.81 -0.84 15.16 18.12 1.1M 1M 15.97
Current. Dumped back to the 10 day EMA on the close though volume
was lower. No real news driving it after that solid
surge higher early in the week. This is where it needs
to hold the line.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CMVT 01/27 Put 34.49 0.00 19.27 18.15 897K 4.6M 19.92
Current. Still in the downtrend below the 10 day EMA but refusing
to go ahead and sell off. Earnings 3-15.
DGII 01/27 Put 12.80 -0.07 12.67 11.55 95K 140K 13.05
Buy Not Issued. Still kissing at the 200 day EMA. Just waiting for
it to roll back over.
GME 01/30 Dbl Top 53.90 +0.06 53.38 50.55 1M 1.4M 54.35
Buy Not Hit. Doji below the 50 day EMA has set it up for the fall.
It got a bump on the ERTS earnings but not enough to
send it back up through resistance after that double
top. Earnings third week of February.
NVDA 01/25 Put 31.85 +0.81 31.35 29.15 9.8M 12M 30.68
Current. Bounced further Friday but on lower volume. Lookign
for a stall here at 32 and adding positions on a turn
back down.
RNOW 01/29 Put 16.73 +0.58 14.88 13.38 331K 310K 14.91
Exited. Started the session lower but then rallied up thru
the 90 day MA so we closed it.
SBUX 01/29 Put 34.27 -0.14 34.96 32.92 7.7M 11M 34.85
Current. Faded a bit further Friday after reversing Thursday from a gap higher on earnings. Bounced up off 34 on the low. Need to see it break this support level early this week as SBUX chases money flow lower. Could really see the bottom fall out.
End part 2 of 3
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