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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 4 of 4
RYL (Ryland Group--$70.68; -1.68; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-24-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RYL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Not good. RYL broke from a cup with handle in early December, and after testing the move (breakout point 62) proceeded to make a nice run up to a new high of 75.85. However, after pulling back to the 18 day MVA (70.20), it tanked back through that support Friday with a huge infusion of volume (778,100; average 351,800). The sector is not looking good here, and RYL could take out its 50 day MVA (65), in which case we would look at a put play down to a target of 55.
BUY POINT: If it cannot hold the 50 day, a drop through 64 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: February $75 puts to buy (RYL NO).
MI (Marshall & Illsley--$60.10; -0.08; optionable): We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
STATUS: Gave up the 50 day MVA (61.28) Wednesday, and after a big surge in volume on a modest drop Thursday, MI more or less held its ground Friday at the support of its long-term up trendline (connecting November 2000 and July 2001 lows). It tapped below Thursday's low, hitting 59.72 but volume cooled to 193,500 (average 249,600). Could be resting before a continued drop going into earnings on Thursday. We are watching possible support at the center of its former 'flying w' pattern (October) at 58, but we will target the 200 day MVA (55.92).
BUY POINT: From here or after a test up toward 61, a drop back through 59.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: February $65 puts to buy (MI NM).
JCI (Johnson Controls--$75.00; -3.19; optionable): Auto parts. Forecast to announce a split on 1-18-02 before the open with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that JCI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was 0n 1-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Falling hard as auto parts are falling apart. Was looking good closing in on the forecast, but has suddenly fallen out of its pattern, as the auto parts sector has made a run but is now faltering badly. It gave up the 50 day MVA (78.49), gapping below it Thursday and then falling very hard Friday. Volume kicked up to 648,100 (average 390,500), and it is nearing the 200 day MVA (73.66, which is with its April, May and October highs). We will see if it can hold, but it is not looking good at the moment, and even an announcement would likely not turn the tide.
BUY POINT: A drop through the 200 day on continued strong volume.
POSITION: February $80 puts to buy (JCI NP).
PII (Polaris Industries--$57.25; -1.40; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-29-02 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/pii.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that PII has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-3-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: PII moved up Tuesday and tried to break from its ascending wedge (formed off a December 18 day MVA bounce, the second after it broke from a double bottom in November). However, the move stalled and it has pulled back to the support of its 18 day MVA (57.10). The selling was on decreasing, low volume of 44,200 (average 118,400), so we will see if it can hold, but it has come back further than we would like, and we are wary of a breach of the 18 day that could lead to a test of the 50 day, at 54.07.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 59 on volume of 160,000 or higher. Stop: 54.71 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or March $55 calls to buy (PII CK).
WLP (Wellpoint Health Networks--$121.78; +2.20; optionable): Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that WLP has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: WLP has formed a small (5-week) saucer that serves as the handle to its 15-month cup. It made a move up Friday toward its handle high (November intraday spike at 122.90), but it was not a strong move, with volume at 373,600 (average 653,300). Volume has been generally weak as the stock has moved back up from its 50 day MVA (115.51), so it will likely settle back a bit here, which could be a good thing to build strength for a strong breakout move. We will look for it to hold the 119-120 range (10 day MVA at 118.58) and set up the move. It has not hit a buy point on this move up yet because of the volume, but with any existing positions we would be wary of a strong drop back.
BUY POINT: After holding the 120 range on a rest, the breakout is 123.02 on volume of 1 million.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $115 calls to buy (WLP DC).
PRE SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
CHS ($39.45; +0.20): Splits 3:2 effective 1-22-02. CHS has made double tops after its breakout from a double bottom with handle, and now is struggling to hold its 18 day MVA (39.46). With a week to go before the split we will see if it can hold up and muster another move. Keeping the aggressive play at a move over 40.65, with stock and/or February $40 calls to buy (CHS BH). Stop: 39.17.
Plays:
XRAY (Dentsply--$50.69; +0.01; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 3:2 effective February 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Another loose doji Friday - this time on sharply lower volume from what we have seen each session over the last few weeks. XRAY continues to hold the 10 day MVA (50.16), but the former lateral pattern is beginning to drift up - and we prefer to see it drift back to set up a strong move. The stock is trying to make a move on the recent high (52.03, from an intraday spike last week), but has been unable to hold the intraday highs. Still looking for a sustained move but now watching existing positions carefully for a possible breach of support, but still looking to ride them to the recent high and targeting 57. Strong money flow and buying.
PLAY: Over 52 on increased, above average volume (down Friday to 206,400, average 245,600), with stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (XAQ AI). Stop: 48.
VAR (Varian Medical--$71.25; +0.85; optionable): Scientific & Tech. Instruments. Splits 2:1 effective 1-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Splits Wednesday, and may not have anything left. After giving us a nice pre-split bounce Monday from the 200 day MVA (67.91), VAR has inched up toward resistance (the recent high at 72) as volume dwindles. If it can muster a move over 72 we can look at aggressive new positions, but with current positions we will be ready to take profits if it fails at that level.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 72, with stock and/or February $65 calls to buy (VAR BM).
PAST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
Watchlist:
LUV ($17.78; -0.23): One thing's for sure . . . LUV stinks. Well, it is not that bad, holding the 200 day MVA (17.83) as volume dropped a bit Friday (2.38 million; average 2.73 million). It received a downgrade and sold fairly hard Thursday, so we will see if it can hold, but the 200 day is key and a drop through is an exit point for any remaining positions.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
Watchlist:
ACS ($106.75; -1.57): As expected following Thursday's "hanging man" doji, ACS pulled back Friday through the former pattern high at 107.25. Volume was down at 413,000 (497,000), but we aggressively sold some February $105 calls, looking for ACS to continue down and at least test the 18 day MVA (104.20). If it holds there yet again we will buy them back, but we could get a stronger drop from ACS at any time.
AZO ($64.86; -0.34): Little change Friday. AZO traded in a tight range and closed with a doji on falling volume under resistance of the November consolidation and the 50 day (at 66.86). Still looking ripe for stronger selling and on a move through the Thursday low (39.10) on above average volume (1.4 million; down to 893,500 Friday), we can look for February $70 puts to buy (AZO NN). Still targeting 60.
BBY ($72.70; -1.07): The move could be over. BBY made a nice bounce up from 65 in December on positive earnings, but now retail stocks could be heading for tougher times and BBY, which had some good news last month and made good moves, could see a struggle. For now it is holding its 18 day MVA (72.79), Friday moving on sharply lower volume of 2.94 million (average 3.25 million). We will see if it can hold, but need to be ready for a possible move down to test the 50 day (68.56). On a move down, we are taking our money off the table.
BBBY ($33.14; -0.35): Much like BBY. Another retailer, that is dropping back in its pattern, which was an ascending wedge. Friday it tested down near the 50 day MVA (32; low Friday 32.55) before pulling up to close just below the 18 day (33.37), which had been recent support in the pattern. The stock formed the current pattern after a move out of a cup with handle, but that could be the extent of the run as it is moving back into the range of the handle and we could very well see a key test of the 50 day (which is with one of its long-term up trendlines), and we would be ready to clear out all positions. Frankly, not much upside potential showing at this point. If it can hold here, still a move over 35.70 on volume of 5 million, with stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (BHQ BF).
Plays:
APPB (Applebee's--$34.92; -0.70; optionable): Restaurants. We are researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Closed Friday with another pullback to support at the 18 day MVA (34.82) as volume stayed steady and quite low (143,700, average 427,500). After its recent breakout and then test of the 50 day (33.71), we are looking for the stock to hold the 18 day and continue to trend up that support - a typical move on a strong breakout. However, the December high (36.89) is a key level, and for new positions we need to see it take it out. Target: 42.
BUY POINT: 37.01 on above average volume. Stop: 34.42.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $35 calls to buy (AQB BG).
THC (Tenet Healthcare--$63.15; +0.55; optionable): Health Services - Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a stock split in September 1991 in the $45 range. No additional shares will be authorized at the annual shareholder meeting, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Earnings were well-received and last Friday THC gapped way up hit a new high of 63 before pulling back. Since then the stock has held on, trying to form something of a handle. Friday it pushed up to a new all-time high of 63.98 before pulling back at the close, but still managed to hold over 63 (which has provided some resistance this past week). Pulling way off the intraday high to close indicates a possible drop back in the pattern, so we will see if THC tests the 10 day MVA (61.45; former pattern highs are at 61 from the late-November early-December range, which are the center of its 'flying w' type cup). Trouble if it cannot hold 61.
BUY POINT: If we get a hold of support at 61.50-62 on a nice pullback, we can look at positions on a move back over 63 on increased volume (up to 1.9 million Friday; average 1.88 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or February $60 calls to buy (THC BL).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: Note that recent play MIK is showing signs of turning over another retailer where we are taking money off the table.
Watchlist:
CBH ($41.15; +0.95): Moved up again with volume picking up to 508,900 (average 218,300), as CBH continued up after breaking out last week. The stock did pull back slightly from the intraday high of 41.49, but we are looking to ride positions toward the target of 45. The former pattern highs are at 39.60 from the December ascending wedge.
CHBS ($31.18; -0.95): The consolidation may be over, as CHBS gave up the 18 day MVA (70.20) Friday as volume increased slightly to 433,200 (average 363,000). The retail sector could be trouble now, so if it cannot recovery we will exit remaining positions as the stock could be headed for the 50 day (65).
FMBI ($28.47; -0.08): Still holding the pennant (and pattern lows at 28.50) as volume shot up Friday to 84,600 (average 87,000) and FMBI traded in a fairly wide range and closed with a tight doji at the 18 day. Considering the recent volatile price/volume action and the struggle to hold the short-term MVA's, this it could go either way from here, and earnings are out Thursday. So we are definitely waiting for solid volume in the 100,000 range before we play a move over 29.50 with stock.
Play:
CACI (Caci Int'l--$40.49; -0.34; optionable): Technical Services. Split 2:1 effective 12-7-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/caci.html
STATUS: Trying to hold support. Since its solid move going into the split, CACI has been somewhat erratic, but holding support at its 18 day MVA (40.25) as it moves in a lateral range. Off of Wednesday's 'shooting star' doji we were looking for a run up and breakout, but instead it has tested below its 18 day Friday but pulled off of that level to close on support. Volume remained low at 368,200 (average 422,300), but this higher low is making this ranging pattern turn into an ascending wedge. Looking for a breakout over the pattern high at 43.32. If it can take out the high, targeting 50.
PLAY: Breakout: 43.44 on minimum volume of 600,000, with stock and/or March $40 calls to buy (KFQ CH). Stop: 40.40. Aggressive: Over 42 on above average volume. Stop: 40.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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