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top stock pick, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CHDX; CRM; CROX; CTRP; CTSH; DADE; ICE; JCI; RMD
New Plays:
New Pre-Split plays:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$67.74; -0.04; optionable): Electrical, fiber optic connectors. Splits 2:1 on 4-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After moving higher early in the week APH slowed as the week closed out, moving laterally but not giving up its run higher that formed the right side of its 9 week base. Looks as if it is going to take a few days to test and then be set to make the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 381.5K Avg Volume: 800K
BUY POINT: $68.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: APH DM - Apr. $65c (68 delta) or APH GN - July $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
New Post-Split plays:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
CELG (Celgene--$55.41; -0.69; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: 2-1-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong earnings drove CELG sharply higher Thursday, moving it off the 90 day MA (52.97) on the test back from the December all-time high. One of the top 2006 stocks it had to work through some profit taking to start the year. It held this support and jumped above the 50 day EMA (54.89) on the earnings results, then tested Friday. Looking to start some positions as CELG moves through the 50 day SMA (56.27). Likely still has some basing to do, but on a good surge we will start taking positions, then use the tests to add as it continues the move.
Volume: 2.903M Avg Volume: 4.184M
BUY POINT: $56.38 Volume=500K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.68
POSITION: LQH GK - July $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
Play Date: 02/03/2007
VOL (Volt Information Science--$36.89; +0.79; no options): Staffing & telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vol.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. VOL blasted higher the second week of January on its split announcement, surging to 42 on the high. It then reversed quickly, falling back toward the 50 day EMA (33.15), but holding well above that level. Starting Wednesday VOL got it together and started back up on very solid volume. After this test it has set up the continued rally and that is what we are looking for to move in.
Volume: 557.1K Avg Volume: 564.571K
BUY POINT: $37.04 Volume=600K Target=$42.75 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vol.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
NMX (Nymex Holdings--$132.81; +4.81; optionable): Energy and metals exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. A new issue in November, NMX immediately fell into the current 11 week base after its IPO. Nice double bottom with handle formed, breaking higher in late January but immediately coming back to test the move. It held the 18 day EMA on the Thursday intraday test lower and rebounded on strong volume. Friday it posted a strong price move on lower but still solid trade. Nice test and looking to move in as NMX continues higher following its surging money flow. Can run like the wind and set up well to make the run out of this base.
Volume: 1.07M Avg Volume: 1.384M
BUY POINT: $133.38 Volume=1.5M Target=$149.95 Stop=$128.00
POSITION: NMX FG - June $135c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATI: No announcement with earnings but is holding most of the gain from the last run.
ATVI: Tentatively set 2-5-07. Bounced off the 90 day MA and gapped above the 50 day EMA Friday. Solid recovery but the pattern still looks a bit toppy.
BIDU: No split announcement this week and it fell hard to the 50 day SMA where it is trying to hold. Volatile and will let it bounce.
BNI: Researching date. Excellent break higher last week.
BPO: Forecast early February. No split announcement yet but still moving higher
CEPH: Forecast 2-12-07. Starting the recovery
CLB: Forecast 2-15-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
CTSH: Forecast 2-9-07
GENZ: Tentatively set for 2-14-07
GES: Forecast 2-14-07
GPRO: Tentatively forecast 2-13-07. Held the 200 day SMA and is now in position to rally.
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again after a quick test of the 10 day EMA
JCP: Forecast 2-22-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07. Sweet run underway
MER: Researching date. Started higher Thursday
RL: Forecast 2-7-07
SRCL: Forecast 2-7-07
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast 2-12-07. Jumped higher and now looking for a test of 42.75 for a new entry point.
XTO: Forecast mid-February
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
BA (Boeing--$90.05; -1.00; optionable): Airplanes, etc.
BACKGROUND: No splits in BA's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ba.html
STATUS: Test breakout. BA announce strong results Wednesday that gapped it higher off a test of the 90 day MA. It continued higher Thursday and then tested Friday on lower volume. Now you could argue that BA is overextended but it tends to make these kinds of moves, and you use these little pullbacks after the initial surge to take or add to positions. It is printing money as it gains more and more orders at Airbus' expense. Don't know about you, but I have a hard time flying in a plane called a bus.
Volume: 5.099M Avg Volume: 4.409M
BUY POINT: $90.32 Volume=5.8M Target=$99.95 Stop=$88.88
POSITION: BA ER - May $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ba.html
Play Date: 02/03/2007
LVS (Las Vegas Sands--$103.25; -2.44; optionable): Casinos, resorts. Potential announced after hours Monday.
BACKGROUND: No splits in its history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lvs.html
EARNINGS: 2-5-07 after the close
STATUS: Flying plateau. Another strong stock that broke higher to start the year and is now working laterally above the 18 day EMA (102.47), refusing to give up the gains from its prior move. Nice second test of the November breakout has it set up well ahead of earnings. It is a more aggressive play given earnings are out after the Monday close, but we like the pattern and the set up moving into earnings.
Volume: 2.396M Avg Volume: 2.688M
BUY POINT: $106.94 Volume=4M Target=$122.95 Stop=$102.31
POSITION: LVA FA - June $105c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lvs.html
Play Date: 02/03/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$132.82; +5.44; optionable): Wireless telecom (Blackberries)
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-7-04 at $108.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 4-4-07
STATUS: Double bottom. RIMM is working through a 4 week double bottom that used the 90 day MA at 120 as support for the left leg, making a shallower dip just before the end of January. Friday RIMM started to surge on rising volume; after the test it looks ready to run. The current pattern is part of a larger and ragged 10 week pattern consolidating the strong August through November run. Looking to move into positions as it continues higher toward 140 where it may face some resistance from November and early January price highs. After a pause there to form a handle we will look at more positions as it continues higher.
Volume: 8.542M Avg Volume: 9.09M
BUY POINT: $133.11 Volume=10M Target=$152.95 Stop=$129.94
POSITION: RFY FG - June $135c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$72.55; -1.32; optionable): Clothing
BACKGROUND: No splits in GES' history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: 2-14-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Faded back to the 10 day EMA on low volume, testing the Thursday gap higher over the 10 day. Looking for it to hold here and rebound on volume to give us the entry point. To recap: GES is in the midst of a strong run, coming back to test the 18 day EMA after breaking higher form an 8 week flat base in late December. Nice first test of that break higher, easing back on low volume to test and set up the next run higher in this move.
Volume: 407.5K Avg Volume: 905.713K
BUY POINT: Has tested 72ish and ready to pick it up on the rebound (orig. $72.48) Volume=1M Target=$83.45 Stop=$70.38
POSITION: GES FO - June $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
Play Date: 01/30/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$50.55; +0.16; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast mid-February
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at 24.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Working laterally just over 50 after a strong price and volume break Tuesday. Waiting for this test to end and then continue higher. To recap: XTO broke higher Tuesday on stronger, above average volume, heading for a new all-time high. It broke out from a 10 month base in late November, but the move failed. It fell to the 200 day SMA where it double bottomed and then surged. On a continued move higher we are looking to start the play and then again on a test. Excellent action; one of the energy stocks that did not sell off nearly as aggressively as others.
Volume: 2.793M Avg Volume: 3.94M
BUY POINT: On a break higher from here on volume (orig. $50.48) Volume=4.5M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.33
POSITION: XTO EJ - May $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/01/2007
ACH (Aluminum Corp of China--$24.45; -0.07; optionable): Chinese aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ach.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Reached down to the 10 day EMA Friday and rebounded to close flat. Still in solid shape and still ready to continue higher and give us the breakout. To recap: After the China scare last week when an official 'warned' of a bubble, those stocks are rebounding. ACH blasted higher Thursday on strong volume, clearing the 'hump' in the middle of its 6 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA on the lows as support. This is part of a larger 10 month cup with handle base, this smaller pattern being the handle. Ready to move in as it continues higher and then adding on a test.
Volume: 1.05M Avg Volume: 686.634K
BUY POINT: $24.68 Volume=700K Target=$29.65 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: ACH EX - May $22.50c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ach.html
Play Date: 02/01/2007
KSWS (K-Swiss--$32.61; +0.21; optionable): Footwear, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
EARNINGS: 2-22-07
STATUS: Cup. Solid volume continued Friday as KSWS gapped lower but recovered positive. It is a buy on a continued move higher. To recap: Volume surged Wednesday through Friday as KSWS recovered the 50 day EMA (31.69) and rallied off that level. A nice 12 week cup has formed, using the 200 day SMA in early January as support. Looking to take some positions as KSWS continues this move and then adding to the position when it tests. It has plenty of room to run upside and make us some nice money. Retail is back on the front burner after the holiday correction.
Volume: 385.921K Avg Volume: 232.782K
BUY POINT: $32.68 Volume=250K Target=$38.95 Stop=$31.45
POSITION: SWU GE - July $30c (78 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
NYX (NYSE Group--$99.50; -2.19; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped lower Friday but held the 50 day EMA on the low (97.06) and rebounded to cut some of the losses on rising volume. Earnings were solid but disappointed some. Still holding up very well and in good positions to continue the rally. To recap: Sold back after an early January surge, but held the line last week, making a higher low at the 50 day EMA and bouncing. It could not continue, but held the 50 dya SMA (110.21) before the Friday fall. Strong leader and can fly when it gets going.
Volume: 9.755M Avg Volume: 5.816M
BUY POINT: $102.44 Volume=8M Target=$122.00 Stop=$99.21
POSITION: NYX FT - June $100c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nyx.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 01/27/2007
DGII (Digi Intl.--$12.80; -0.07; optionable): Networking and communication hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgii.html
EARNINGS: 1-18-07
STATUS: Put. Gapped higher Friday but then faded, unable to tap the 200 day SMA (13.01) and unable to hold the 18 day EMA on the close. Still looking for DGII to roll back over after failing at the 200 day SMA. To recap: Tanked through the 200 day SMA in mid-January on strong volume and has spent the past two weeks recovering to test that breakdown. Fought back but could not recover the 200 day. Still looking for the fall. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 95.403K Avg Volume: 134.361K
BUY POINT: $12.67 Volume=140K Target=$11.55 Stop=$13.05
POSITION: JGW OV - Mar. $12.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgii.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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top stock pick
stock split
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