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Begin part 2 of 3
NOTE: Part 1 will be forwarded following part 2
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon Market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor Market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACH 02/01 Dbl btm 24.63 +0.18 24.68 29.65 429K 700K 23.05
Buy Not Issued. Cracked the buy point but that is about all as volume
fell way off pace, unable to drive ACH after that Friday
reach lower and rebound. Still has a ton of money flow
out ahead of it & looking for that to lead it higher.
ADS 01/16 DB hdl 64.83 -1.60 66.39 75.95 1.3M 1.3M 66.28
Current. Managed to hold above the 50 day EMA (64.23) on the
tap low, rebounding to hold the 50 day SMA on the close.
Competing analyst calls. Tends to test the 50 day &
rally off that level.
AKAM 01/03 Test 50 58.18 +2.63 53.55 61.35 5.3M 7.6M 54.88
Current. Excellent breakout to a new all-time high from a neat
little 8 week double bottom w/handle. It as the NASD
2006 leader & weathered some selling by forming the
base. Then it breaks out. Strength on strength.
AMT 01/08 Flat 40.04 +0.10 39.38 45.45 1.5M 3.5M 39.38
Current. Still moving laterally at 40 as the 10 & 18 day EMA push it up against that level. A good consolidation that has refused to give up its gains, a positive indication. Now it needs to make the break higher to resume the breakout. Earnings late February.
ANF 02/03 Test BO 80.37 -0.40 80.21 92.85 1.2M 2.6M 79.11
Buy Not Hit. Nice breakout test as ANF has come back to test & hold
80. It is a buy as it comes up off of this level and
continues the break to the new high.
ANST 12/26 Cup hdl 27.82 +0.05 28.36 33.95 171K 400K 27.95
Current. Still trying to get it in gear over the 50 day EMA
(27.45) as volume moves up to average. In position
but has to make the move. Earnings mid-February.
AOB 02/03 Asc Bse 13.27 -0.23 13.65 15.88 1M 2M 12.78
Buy Not Hit. Modest fade back to test the 10 day EMA intraday as
it sets up for a higher low here to push it out of
its 9 week ascending base and taking it to the next
all-time high.
ARXT 01/25 Cup hdl 44.84 -0.23 46.55 54.95 516K 506K 44.68
Buy Not Issued. Faded to the 18 day EMA on lower volume after ARXT
could not push Thursdays break higher through the January
high (46.27). This is a key test for this move.
BEAV 01/10 Cup hdl 31.02 +1.34 28.81 34.45 2.5M 1M 29.08
Target Hit. Gapped higher on earnings and some M&A activity in
the sector. Took some 7.2% stock and 20% option gain
($1.20/contract) given the surge higher on top of last
week's breakout move.
BITS 02/01 Cup hdl 10.30 +0.10 10.68 12.85 86K 185K 9.93
Buy Not Hit. Nice tight lateral range continues as BITS works more
on the handle to its 15 week base. The 10 day EMA (10.00)
is running up to meet it & that is likely to set it
off on the breakout.
BMC 01/10 Test BO 35.63 -0.10 35.48 40.95 1.8M 2.4M 34.28
Current.
BMC 12/16 Flat 35.63 -0.10 33.10 39.75 1.8M 2.5M 33.98
Current. Took a day off Monday after the excellent surge higher
last week off the 50 day EMA.
CELG 02/03 Test 50 54.85 -0.56 56.38 64.95 2.3M 500K 54.68
Buy Not Hit. Gapped a bit lower but on low volume, showing a doji
at the 50 day EMA. A good low volume test of the Break
higher last week but it needs to hold near here to
keep the move going.
CHDX 01/23 Cup hdl 24.80 +0.62 24.32 28.95 224K 200K 23.97
Current. Gapping higher again as CHDX furthers its move off
of the 18 day EMA test. That keeps it trending higher
after the breakout and thi stest.
CRM 01/24 DB hdl 47.13 +0.38 43.19 51.85 1.4M 1.5M 45.38
Current. Adding a day of modest gains to its strong move from
last week. Volume faded to average; getting a bit tired
but a nice breakout.
CROX 01/20 Test BO 56.61 +1.82 49.00 58.95 3.9M 2.5M 52.62
Current. Continued the surge higher with a high volume gap as
it received an upgrade raising the target to 80. Getting
a bit overheated on this segment of the move, but hard
to complain at all.
CROX 01/08 Cup 56.61 +1.82 46.27 53.95 3.9M 2M 52.68
Current. Continued the surge higher with a high volume gap as
it received an upgrade raising the target to 80. Getting
a bit overheated on this segment of the move, but hard
to complain at all.
DLLR 02/03 Test BO 29.91 -0.04 30.38 36.45 220K 350K 29.25
Buy Not Hit. Nice doji with tail as DLLR reached lower through the
10 day EMA and rebounded to close flat. Nice final
shakeout on this pullback. Want to see the volume bump
back up as DLLR rebounds off this breakout point.
DO 01/30 Cup hdl 84.20 -0.38 83.42 95.95 3.6M 5.7M 82.44
Current. Tried the run through 85 but again it was rebuffed,
fading on rising, above avg volume. Still high volume
on that late January run shows buyers are out there.
Needs to hold at the 10 day EMA (82.65). Earnings 2-8-07.
GIGM 01/24 Cup 11.81 +0.13 11.48 13.95 488K 1.3M 11.22
Current. Still holding its strong last week surge, working laterally
on low volume as it sets up the next move. Excellent
action. Earnings around 2-8 (foreign so info less sketchy).
GS 02/01 Test 18 212.55 -0.88 212.88 231.90 3M 6.5M 209.55
Current. Modest loss to the 10 day EMA on very low volume as
GS works laterally over the 10 day EMA.
HLTH 12/07 Saucer 14.48 +0.05 12.38 14.85 3.4M 5M 13.95
Current. Another modest advance as HLTH slows after that break neck run to end January. It is likely in need of a test after that run back toward 14ish.
HMSY 01/24 Test BO 19.98 -0.08 19.02 22.75 361K 333K 18.95
Current. Doji on rising, above avg volume after a week of gains.
Showing a bit of selling after that surge but overall
in excellent shape. Earnings 2-28-07.
HMSY 12/14 Asc Bse 19.98 -0.08 14.98 18.31 361K 331K 19.04
Current. Doji on rising, above avg volume after a week of gains.
Showing a bit of selling after that surge but overall
in excellent shape. Earnings 2-28-07.
HWCC 02/03 Cup hdl 24.24 -0.59 25.25 29.95 297K 500K 23.55
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher but then revsersed, unable to push that
solid move to end last week. Holding support and the
selling was on lower, below avg volume. Needs to hold
here and give us the breakout.
ICE 01/23 Test 18 143.60 +1.13 133.00 151.00 2.6M 3.5M 140.89
Current. Another gain but a volatile session as ICE continues
to run higher after breaking the ice last week. Earnings
2-7-07 before the open.
ILMN 01/22 Cup 35.19 -1.98 41.52 49.88 4.2M 1.2M 39.96
Current. Not giving us a break, gapping lower once more. Managed to hold the 200 day EMA on the close so we will let it hold & bounce from here to test the tail kicking. That will give us a better exit point if nothing else. Earnings were 2-1-07.
INFY 01/03 Asc Bse 59.00 +0.06 56.13 65.65 1.8M 1.6M 57.22
Current. Modest gain as INFY continues higher. Volume was up
close to average. Still want INFY to show us a big
surge after 'looking solid' for three weeks. Now it
is time for it to look 'stellar.'
ININ 01/29 Test 50 20.74 +0.79 20.78 24.95 284K 400K 19.33
Entered today. Got some volume and gave it the gas, bouncing off the
50 day EMA test and looks to be resuming the move.
JNJ 01/18 Cup 66.30 -0.28 68.08 78.45 7.5M 10M 66.12
Current. Gapped lower, tapping at the 90 day EMA on the low
and rebounding some but closing below the 50 day EMA.
Still mired in the mud at this level. Earnings were
1-23-07.
KNOT 01/27 Test BO 30.13 -0.07 31.02 37.32 381K 825K 29.78
Current. Doji at the 10 day EMA on below avg volume. Testing
that last move and is holding where it should above
the 10 and 18 day EMA. Volatile so going to let it
hold and then make the next jump higher.
LVLT 01/06 DB hdl 6.27 +0.18 6.12 7.65 33M 35M 6.22
Current. Getting a bit of spring in its step as LVLT jumps off
the 18 day EMA on some rising though still below average
volume. It has held the test well and is due for its
next move. Earnings are 2-8-07.
MA 01/20 Test BO 110.25 -0.71 107.09 121.00 991K 4.5M 108.97
Current.
MA 01/04 Cup 110.25 -0.71 101.11 119.75 991K 3.5M 108.97
Current. Gapped lower but held the 10 day EMA on ver low, below
average volume. There simply were not that many sellers
pushing MA lower as it tests near support in its continuing
uptrend. Earnings 2-9-07.
MDRX 01/18 Cup hdl 29.96 -0.14 29.09 34.75 916K 1.2M 29.55
Current. Gapped lower but a solid recover to close just below
flat on lower though still above avg volume. Good recovery
and maintaining its uptrend. Important that it rebounds
further from this close. Earnings 2-13-07 after the close
MER 01/31 Test 50 94.45 -0.21 94.74 112.95 4.1M 5.5M 92.95
Current. Lower but on lower volume as well, moving laterally
just below the 18 day EMA.
MNST 12/11 Cup hdl 52.64 -0.27 48.14 56.78 899K 2.4M 51.22
Current. Modest loss after gapping higher following a week of
storng gains. After such a move a few days of rest
are normal.
MON 02/01 Test BO 54.30 -1.25 55.69 62.95 2.4M 4.2M 54.24
Current. Gave up the Friday bounce, falling to tap the 18 day
EMA on the low (54.04) on low volume. Held there and
indeed we are looking at more positions on a bounce
form here, preferably with some more volume this time.
MR 12/26 Test 50 25.66 +0.91 24.45 29.75 922K 1.1M 24.75
Current. Nice break higher off the 18 day EMA test on some rising,
average volume. Good break higher off of this test
in something of a double bottom w/handle base. Excellent
action. Earnings third week of February.
MRVC 12/20 Cup hdl 4.20 +0.05 3.72 4.78 3.2M 2M 3.97
Current. Surged to 4.36 on the Monday high as volume jumped, but it could not lock up the move, giving it all back but a nickel. Positive development, and glad to let it run from here. Looks as if it is picking up the pace ahead of earnings. Earnings 2-15-07.
MS 01/31 Test 50 83.27 -0.77 83.68 99.75 3.3M 4.8M 82.32
Current. Testing the 10 day EMA on lower, below avg volume,
trying to make a higher low at this near support to
really give it the run higher.
NTLI 01/31 Dbl btm 27.69 +0.70 27.74 31.88 2.7M 4.5M 26.38
Entered today. Volume moved up to average as NTLI started the break
from the handle to its 13 week base. Good start to
the breakout move.
NYX 01/13 Cup hdl 98.60 -0.90 105.85 124.95 3.2M 5.2M 101.55
Current. After that big doji Friday, a low volume fade while
NYX still holds easily above the 50 day EMA (97.45)
where it has held on the lows and bounced the past month.
OII 01/30 Test 50 40.66 +0.84 40.78 46.95 578K 1M 38.89
Entered today. Nice price break higher though volume remained overall
low.
PAY 01/13 Test BO 40.31 +0.39 37.56 44.95 491K 1M 38.98
Current. Took the day off though volume surged back above average on the test lower & rebound back up. Still trending higher but has for the past 2 weeks. Slowing some & may try to test the 10 day before continuing higher. Earnings early March.
RIO 01/30 Test BO 34.02 0.00 33.05 39.65 5.5M 9M 32.78
Current. Second day moving laterally at the 10 day EMA on lower
volume. Still taking a breather after that sharp break
higher.
SIMO 01/31 Test BO 21.07 +1.13 19.00 22.78 1.5M 550K 20.22
Current. Continuing the surge that started just before the earnings
release. Will tire a bit after such a strong run.
If we get another put we will look at taking some gain
off the table for the test.
SKX 01/18 Test 18 35.36 -0.75 34.97 41.88 683K 650K 34.94
Current. Rallied sharply to 36.80 but then reversed the move
and fell back toward the 10 day EMA. Still trending
nicely higher but never like these higher volume reversals.
SNCR 12/28 Test 18 16.19 +0.47 14.95 18.32 538K 295K 15.14
Current. Volume jumped back up above average as SNCR resumes the move, looking for that all-time high. Like these new issues after their first base or two. Earnings 2-6-07 after the close. Expecting some good results given the action.
SNDA 12/26 Test 18 22.01 -0.03 21.66 25.99 400K 750K 22.04
Current. Struggling to hold on at the 18 day EMA as the pattern
turns somewhat toppy. Have bo be careful here.
SOHU 01/27 Test BO 26.94 -0.01 26.59 31.95 990K 865K 26.25
Current. Strong volume as SOHU gapped lower but held the 10
day EMA and bounced. Nice recovery and it is still
set up to make the break higher.
TWLL 01/08 Test 50 18.11 +0.41 17.32 20.79 506K 331K 17.18
Current. Continuing the break higher on very strong volume.
Excellent action: strong price breakout with volume,
low volume test, strong volume on the next rebound.
Earnings 2-14-07.
VCLK 01/27 Test BO 25.49 +0.08 26.10 30.85 2.2M 2.8M 25.04
Current.
VCLK 01/03 Test 18 25.49 +0.08 24.34 29.32 2.2M 3.5M 25.04
Current. Still holding at the 10 day EMA though volume jumped
up to average as it gapped higher and then turned back
down. This is where it needs to hold. Earnings 2-21-07.
WEBX 01/29 Trnd Rv 45.95 -0.44 37.25 42.75 1.1M 900K 44.22
Current. Paused Monday on lower volume after those two big moves higher on the earnings. It is due a test after this strong surge. Going to watch the pullback to see its severity & judge what to do with it as it shows its pullback.
WMS 01/09 DB hdl 40.11 -0.53 37.84 44.95 337K 450K 39.89
Current. Tested back on lower volume as WMS continues trending
higher up the 10 day EMA. Reported results after hours
and was basically flat.
WNR 01/27 Cup hdl 27.24 -0.19 27.75 33.32 219K 750K 26.55
Buy Not Issued. Working laterally on low volume again, forming the
tight handle to its 9 week little base. Earnings mid-February
but company has not confirmed date.
XING 01/16 Trnd Rv 16.02 +0.21 15.16 18.12 664K 1M 15.97
Current. Gapped lower again but recovered to hold above the 10 day EMA on the close. Low, below avearge volume so no distribution, no accumulation, just status quo. Has slipped the past two sessions and this is where it needs to hold the line.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CMVT 01/27 Put 34.32 0.00 19.27 18.15 1.1M 4.6M 19.92
Current. Modest gain up to kiss the 10 day EMA (19.70) on low
volume. This is where it needs to fold the tent. Earnings
3-15.
DGII 01/27 Put 12.53 -0.27 12.67 11.55 101K 140K 13.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower and looks ready to tank. We keep waiting for some sellers to buy some puts but they just are not. You need some open interests to at least set some parameters. Didn't want to be the guinea pig so did not move in.
GME 01/30 Dbl Top 53.00 -0.90 53.38 50.55 595K 1.4M 54.35
Buy Not Issued. Faded to the 90 day on very low, below avg volume.
It held the 90 day, barely, but given the very low
trade we were not going to enter this one. Want to
see it fall thru the 90 day (52.88) on some better trade.
NVDA 01/25 Put 32.37 +0.52 31.35 29.15 9.7M 12M 30.68
Current. Continued its low volume rise. It moved through the 18 day EMA (32.45) intraday but faded below that level on the close. Low volume at the 18 day EMA; if it is going to resume the downtrend it will do it here & we will look at new positions
SBUX 01/29 Put 34.02 -0.25 34.96 32.92 7.8M 11M 34.65
Current. Decent move lower on rising volume, but need to see
more of a downside breakaway move to really pump up
the options and crack this baby open.
End part 2 of 3
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