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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Weekend play results:
ANF: Faded back a bit further, setting up the continued move higher
AOB: Pullback to the 10 day EMA on continued below average volume
CELG: Testing back a bit further, holding the 50 day EMA
DLLR: Nice doji at the 10 day EMA as it tests the breakout
HWCC: Gapped higher but turned over on low volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/05/2007
AMX (America Movil--$46.09; +1.09; optionable): Latin America wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: 2-7-07 after the close
STATUS: Trading range. AMX is bouncing up and down in an 11 week range between 43 and 46, picking up a lot of volume the past two weeks though it was both on the upside and downside. Strong trade Monday as it reached the top of the range. Looking for that strong volume to ratchet up even more as it cracks out of the top. Needs to show us the strong move for us to pull the trigger.
Volume: 4.748M Avg Volume: 4.414M
BUY POINT: $46.55 Volume=6.5M Target=$54.55 Stop=$43.88
POSITION: AMX EI - May $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amx.html
Play Date: 02/05/2007
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$38.30; -0.89; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Blasted out of a 9 month reverse head and shoulders base in mid-January, rallying to 39. Strong volume on the move that took STLD to a new all-time high. Now some nice lower trade as it comes back toward the 10 day EMA (37.78) to test and set up for the next move higher. Strong money flow continues to hold up as it makes this test. Looking for it to test and hold the 10 day and then catch it up on the rebound as it continues its run.
Volume: 1.564M Avg Volume: 1.834M
BUY POINT: $38.48 Volume=2.5M Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.38
POSITION: RQL EG - May $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stld.html
Play Date: 02/05/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$53.61; +0.97; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Looked at WFR over the weekend as it worked laterally after blasting higher in January on strong earnings, flying out of a 9 month base on strong trade. It has refused to give back any gains even in NASDAQ weakness. Monday volume jumped well above average as WFR started higher. Money flow continues to surge higher and WFR looks ready to follow it.
Volume: 7.528M Avg Volume: 4.467M
BUY POINT: $53.94 Volume=4.8M Target=$61.95 Stop=$50.77
POSITION: WFR GK - July $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wfr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/05/2007
QLGC (Qlogic--$18.25; -0.25; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Put. QLGC is cascading lower after it failed to make the break from its lateral range. It gapped below the 200 day SMA (19.17) in late January, and made a rebound to try and test it the past week. It only made it to the 10 day EMA (18.80) and rolled over. Money flow is tanking ahead of price. This one has plenty of open interest in the options. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 3.67M Avg Volume: 3.132M
BUY POINT: $18.18 Volume=3.8M Target=$16.92 Stop=$18.65
POSITION: QLC OD - Mar. $20p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qlgc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Testing down to the 90 day SMA on continued low volume.
AKAM: Surging higher on strong volume, breaking out from its 8 week double bottom with handle.
GOOG: Dove to the 90 day MA on strong volume. This is where it held in December.
NVDA: Has rebounded to the 18 day EMA on below average volume. This is the interesting test for NVDA on this move
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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