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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ACH; CHDX; CLB; CROX; FRX; KSWS; NX; RIO; RL; SBUX
New Plays:
New Pre-Split plays:
Play Date: 02/06/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$56.10; +0.06; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 2-23-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Test breakout. TRMB is making the second test of the 10 and 18 day EMA, this test following the late January surge on the announcement. Since that run it has moved laterally the past week, consolidating as the 10 day EMA (55.74) rises to meet the stock. Strong money flow is moving higher still, and after this test TRMB still has two to three more runs up the 10 day EMA before it needs a deeper test. Looking to pick it up as it bounces off this support on strong volume.
Volume: 382.141K Avg Volume: 408.611K
BUY POINT: $56.68 Volume=500K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.97
POSITION: TUH EK - May$55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Play Date: 02/06/2007
ZOLL (Zoll Medical--$65.42; -1.52; optionable): Medical Appliances. Splits 2:1 on 2-13-07.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zoll.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After gapping higher on the split news in mid-January ZOLL has come back to test and fill the gap the past three weeks. It held near the 18 day EMA (64.61) and started the rebound Monday on strong volume. It faded back to test Tuesday, closing at the 10 day EMA. Looking for it to rebound from here and move in as it heads into its pre-split run.
Volume: 385.921K Avg Volume: 297.35K
BUY POINT: $65.89 Volume=400K Target=$75.95 Stop=$63.38
POSITION: ZQQ FM - June $65c (57 delta, low 60) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zoll.html
New Post-Split plays:
Play Date: 02/06/2007
AIR (AAR Corp.--$29.91; +0.38; optionable): Products and services for the aerospace, aviation, defense industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/air.html
EARNINGS: March
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A short 7 week pattern has formed using the 50 day EMA (28.07) as support for both legs. This is acting as the handle to a larger 10 month base. There have been some mega volume spikes every time the stock has dipped. Money flow is leading higher, and AIR started higher again Tuesday, following the money flow. Want it to clear the highs in the base on a return of strong volume.
Volume: 425.1K Avg Volume: 454.469K
BUY POINT: $30.22 Volume=680K Target=$35.95 Stop=$28.75
POSITION: AIR EF - May $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/air.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ATI: No announcement with earnings but is holding most of the gain from the last run, testing the 10 day EMA on low volume and setting up the next break higher.
ATVI: Earnings are 2-07 after the close. Still trying to get off the 90 day MA.
BA: Researching date.
BIDU: Trying to bounce back up through the 50 day EMA.
BNI: Researching date. Testing the strong break higher from last week. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA.
BPO: Forecast early February. No split announcement yet but still moving higher
CEPH: Forecast 2-12-07. Nice handle forming and a good volume bounce Monday.
CLB: Forecast 2-15-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
CTSH: Forecast 2-9-07. Gapped sharply higher on earnings Monday but no split announcement yet.
GENZ: Tentatively set for 2-14-07
GES: Forecast 2-14-07
GPRO: Tentatively forecast 2-13-07. Held the 200 day SMA and is now in position to try and bounce
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again after a quick test of the 10 day EMA
JCP: Forecast 2-22-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07. Sweet run underway
MER: Researching date
RIMM: Solid surge Monday to get the play underway.
RL: Forecast 2-7-07. Will see if it can give us an announcement to add to this nice run.
SRCL: Forecast 2-7-07
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast 2-12-07
XTO: Forecast mid-February
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/06/2007
POT (Potash--$150.24; +0.18; optionable): Nonmetallic mining
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-21-04 at $94.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. POT surged out of a 10 week trading range in late January on some strong earnings, rallying to 161 on that initial run. It has come back the past three sessions to test, holding the 18 day EMA (149.27) on the Tuesday close, showing a doji with tail as it rallied back from the low. Volume surged as it rallied back. Looking to step in as it rebounds back up through the 10 day EMA (151.75). This stock has a lot of strength and can really run.
Volume: 2.288M Avg Volume: 1.14M
BUY POINT: $151.88 Volume=2M Target=$170.75 Stop=$148.22
POSITION: PZV FK - June $155c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pot.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
BA (Boeing--$90.98; +0.26; optionable): Airplanes, etc.
BACKGROUND: No splits in BA's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ba.html
STATUS: Test breakout. BA is still testing the breakout on its strong results. It is not giving up any gains as it works laterally on low volume. It is set to continue the move, just needs the next catalyst. To recap: BA announce strong results last Wednesday that gapped it higher off a test of the 90 day MA. It rallied to the end of the week and is now testing, working laterally. Now you could argue that BA is overextended but it tends to make these kinds of moves, and you use these little pullbacks after the initial surge to take or add to positions. It is printing money as it gains more and more orders at Airbus' expense. Don't know about you, but I have a hard time flying in a plane called a bus.
Volume: 3.522M Avg Volume: 4.42M
BUY POINT: New: $91.65 (orig. $90.32) Volume=5.8M Target=$99.95 Stop=$88.88
POSITION: BA ER - May $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ba.html
Play Date: 01/18/2007
CLE (Claires Stores--$34.61; +0.29; optionable): Apparel stores.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-14-03 at $40.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
EARNINGS: 3-15-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume actually edged higher Tuesday as CLE moved up off the 18 day EMA that is acting as support in the handle to CLE's 10 month base. Money flow remains very strong. Will see if this volume bump turns into a real breakout. It is certainly set up to make a move.
Volume: 1.386M Avg Volume: 1.836M
BUY POINT: $34.88 Volume=2.7M Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: CLE EG - May $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Play Date: 01/30/2007
XTO (XTO Energy--$50.48; +0.32; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast mid-February
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split 2-16-05 at $39.10. Before that a 5:4 split on 2-17-04 at 28.50. Before that a 4:3 split on 2-18-03 at 24.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Still keeping that lateral move going over 10 day EMA on low volume, as XTO sets up the handle to the base. Just being patient and waiting for the strong surge higher for the breakout move. To recap: XTO broke higher last Tuesday on stronger, above average volume, heading for a new all-time high. It broke out from a 10 month base in late November, but the move failed. It fell to the 200 day SMA where it double bottomed and then surged. On a continued move higher we are looking to start the play and then again on a test. Excellent action; one of the energy stocks that did not sell off nearly as aggressively as others.
Volume: 2.767M Avg Volume: 3.934M
BUY POINT: 51.22 (orig. $50.48) Volume=4.5M Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.33
POSITION: XTO EJ - May $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$67.74; -0.02; optionable): Electrical, fiber optic connectors. Splits 2:1 on 4-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. An excellent low volume, very tight lateral move is setting up a strong breakout ahead. To recap: After moving higher early in the week APH slowed as the week closed out, moving laterally but not giving up its run higher that formed the right side of its 9 week base. Looks as if it is going to take a few days to test and then be set to make the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 396.4K Avg Volume: 708.964K
BUY POINT: $68.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: APH DM - Apr. $65c (68 delta) or APH GN - July $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/05/2007
TALX (Talx Corp.--$31.97; +0.46; optionable): Payroll and human resources outsourcing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still in that excellent lateral move, coming off the 10 day EMA but no volume yet. Just looking for a bit of trade to send it higher. To recap: Ready to move back into TALX when it shows us its next move. TALX reported some strong earnings in January and surged out of a year long base on big volume. It spent the past week working laterally as the 10 day EMA (30.94) rallied to catch up with it. Looks as if they are going to try and meet half way. That should send it back up to resume the breakout run and that is when we move in.
Volume: 130.412K Avg Volume: 226.233K
BUY POINT: $31.38 Volume=300K Target=$37.75 Stop=$30.54
POSITION: TUB FF - June $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/talx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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