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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: SBUX; SYY
Thursday night play results:
JEC: Tested further from the strong breakout surge.
OSG: Side-stepped for a day on continued low volume, still setting up the next move.
ZUMZ: Gapped higher but could not hold the move.
GLW: Fell back through the 200 day SMA on rising trade.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/10/2007
CHL (China Mobile--$48.24; -1.32; optionable): Telecom services to mainland China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
EARNINGS: Mid-February but not confirmed
STATUS: Breakout test. CHL surged out of a 10 week ascending base in mid-January, matching its all-time high hit back in early 2000. It came back to test the 18 day EMA and rebounded, though it paused last week when the talk of the Chinese bubble emerged. It still held its gains, however, holding the 10 day EMA Friday as it tested back on lower, below average volume. It is in excellent position to continue higher from this test. Want to see it bounce on some rising volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.474M Avg Volume: 1.667M
BUY POINT: $48.78 Volume=2M Target=$57.95 Stop=$46.95
POSITION: CHL FI - June $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chl.html
Play Date: 02/10/2007
HPC (Hercules--$20.07; -0.06; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpc.html
EARNINGS: 1-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Chemicals are hot so to speak. HPC is easing back to the 10 day EMA (20.05) on below average volume as it tests its breakout from a 10 week base to start February. Strong volume on the breakout move shows the buyers were coming in, and now the nice test is setting up the next break higher. Strong fundamentals growth rates and in a strong technical position to move higher and follow its money flow.
Volume: 683.3K Avg Volume: 868.213K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=1M Target=$24.38 Stop=$19.68
POSITION: HPC FD - June $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hpc.html
Play Date: 02/10/2007
QGEN (Qiagen--$17.20; -0.10; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qgen.html
EARNINGS: 2-13-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at QGEN again after it gapped away from us in late January when we were looking to move in on the first test of the breakout from its 14 week base. It rallied up to 18 on that last move, and it is now testing the 10 day EMA (17.19), taking a breather before continuing the breakout run. Earnings are out on Tuesday, and we would prefer to catch it on a good earnings result versus holding it at the release.
Volume: 348.085K Avg Volume: 419.055K
BUY POINT: $17.52 Volume=500K Target=$20.95 Stop=$16.77
POSITION: QXE EW - May $17.50c (56 delta, 54 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qgen.html
Play Date: 02/10/2007
RATE (Bankrate--$44.03; -0.21; optionable): Internet-based consumer banking services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
EARNINGS: Released 2-6-07
STATUS: Test breakout. RATE gapped higher Tuesday on its earnings results, clearing an 8 week cup base that was part of a larger 9 month cup with handle pattern. Strong volume on that breakout and then a lateral move to end the week, refusing to give up its gains. Volume jumped back up on Friday but it held its ground. If it breaks higher from here on solid trade we will enter part of the position and then see how it tests. Very strong fundamentals and now a strong technical pattern after a long base following its strong 2005 and 2006 rally.
Volume: 573.989K Avg Volume: 353.263K
BUY POINT: $44.95 Volume=500K Target=$53.95 Stop=$41.78
POSITION: QIB EI - May $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rate.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 02/10/2007
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$59.44; -1.07; optionable): IT solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
Earnings: Announced in January
STATUS: Test breakout. INFY broke out from a 9 week ascending base in January and has moved steadily up the 10 day EMA (59.02). last week it broke higher on Wednesday on reports of strong growth in India (INFY is an Indian company). It tested that move to end the week, holding the 10 day EMA on the Friday low on much lower, below average volume. Excellent strength and ready to add some positions as it holds this near support and rebounds on rising trade once more.
Volume: 920.72K Avg Volume: 1.748M
BUY POINT: $59.78 Volume=1.8M Target=$68.75 Stop=$58.11
POSITION: IUN GL - July $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/infy.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/10/2007
AXP (American Express--$57.53; -0.96; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axp.html
EARNINGS: 1-22-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Taking another look at AXP again as it breaks lower on rising trade. We exited it when it recovered the 90 day MA last week on better volume, but it could not hold up with the lending issues and with MA's earnings report. It broke back through the 90 day MA Friday and money flow, already down, took another big hit. Looking to move in again on a continued decline as it turns lower now that it has completed its head and shoulders top. A move to the target lands a 53%ish gain.
Volume: 4.705M Avg Volume: 4.913M
BUY POINT: $57.44 Volume=5M Target=$55.94 Stop=$58.20
POSITION: AXP OY - Mar. $57.50p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/axp.html
Play Date: 02/10/2007
WDR (Waddell & Reed--$25.25; -0.60; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wdr.html
EARNINGS: Reported 1-30-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Financials came under pressure late last week after the news on the sub-prime mortgage situation. It tried to break through the 50 day EMA (25.97) but failed, and Friday it broke lower, falling through the 90 day MA (25.52) on much stronger, above average volume. Money flow is weak and it is getting weaker, heading lower ahead of price. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 57%ish gain.
Volume: 717.6K Avg Volume: 619.329K
BUY POINT: $25.12 Volume=725K Target=$24.05 Stop=$25.57
POSITION: WDR OE - Mar. $25p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wdr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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