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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ANST; AXP; SBUX
Weekend play results:
CHL: Fading a bit more in the test on low volume.
HPC: Still set to move, holding the 10 day EMA
QGEN: Tested the move and is now ready.
RATE: Selling back from the tight consolidation.
INFY: Held the 10 day EMA on the close
AXP: High volume as AXP heads lower
WDR: Started lower again.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/12/2007
AMX (America Movil--$47.00; +0.20; optionable): Latin American wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
Earnings: Released 2-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher last Thursday on strong volume on the heels of its earnings report. Friday it faded to test, falling with the market overall but on lighter volume. Monday it tapped at the 10 day EMA and rebounded to post a gain, again on lower volume. That fill the gap and now we are looking to move in as AMX continues higher off the test of the breakout from its 13 week trading range that took it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 4.049M Avg Volume: 4.609M
BUY POINT: $47.31 Volume=6.5M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.28
POSITION: AMX EI - May $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amx.html
Play Date: 02/12/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$54.27; +0.12; optionable): Casual shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. We said we were going to let CROX make its test and then look at it again, and it did not take long. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Monday low and rebounded for a modest gain. May snug up a bit more next to that support (52.59) before resuming the move, but want to be ready to enter here if it continues higher off this breakout test.
Volume: 1.679M Avg Volume: 1.706M
BUY POINT: $55.05 Volume=2M Target=$65.95 Stop=$52.38
POSITION: CQJ FK - June $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crox.html
Play Date: 02/12/2007
PTNR (Partner Communications--$13.74; +0.07; no options): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. PTNR surged out of an 8 week base to start the month, riding some strong earnings and big volume to 14. it stalled at that level and has faded back toward the 10 day EMA (13.39) the past week, holding above that level Monday and bouncing on rising volume. Looks ready to continue the move higher.
Volume: 318.089K Avg Volume: 227.969K
BUY POINT: $13.88 Volume=344K Target=$16.68 Stop=$13.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ptnr.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 02/12/2007
CRM (Salesforce.com--$47.39; +0.38; optionable): Personnel management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
EARNINGS: 2-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CRM broke out in early February from its 10 week reverse head and shoulders base, rallying on strong volume. It peaked at 48 on this initial leg, coming back to test the past week. Monday it tapped at the 10 day EMA (46.22) and rebounded to close positive. Looking to move in as CRM continues its breakout run on some rising trade.
Volume: 1.398M Avg Volume: 1.53M
BUY POINT: $47.74 Volume=1.7M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.97
POSITION: CRM EI - May $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/12/2007
HGT (Hugoton Royalty Trust--$24.44; -0.43; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgt.html
STATUS: Put. HGT is in a continuing downtrend below the 50 day EMA (25.22). It rallies up to the 50 day EMA, stalls, and then fades. The fades have been significant, the last two about $4 each. Monday it started down from its test of the 50 day EMA last week. We are looking to move in as it continues lower. Our initial target is quite conservative, but if it is selling well we will let it run past that level, likely taking some interim gain along the way. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 154.767K Avg Volume: 243.792K
BUY POINT: $24.32 Volume=285K Target=$22.86 Stop=$24.88
POSITION: HGT QE - May $25p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hgt.html
Play Date: 02/12/2007
WBSN (Websense--$21.65; -0.40; optionable): Employee internet management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-30-07
STATUS: Double top. WBSN gapped down on its earnings report, tanking through the 200 day SMA (22.68). That is a critical level because institutions either buy to support a stock at that level or sell it. If the sell, the stock typically has much more downside ahead. WBSN rallied back up last week to test that move, but volume remained low overall. It only made it to the 10 day EMA (22.17) before turning back down. Monday it was falling though volume was low. Good set up for more quick downside and thus looking to get in for a ride lower during expiration week. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 407.821K Avg Volume: 763.998K
BUY POINT: $21.53 Volume=950K Target=$20.00 Stop=$22.21
POSITION: DQH PX - Apr. $22.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wbsn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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