stock split, stock recommendation

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good Movers: ACH; AH; AMX; ANST; CRM; HLTH; HMSY; PTNR; RIO; STLD

Monday night play results:
CROX: Gapped higher on a deal with Warner Bros but could not hold it today
PTNR: Nice volume as it clears resistance
CRM: Solid volume as CRM moves to a new high
BEAS: Gapped lower but rebounded to close flat. Still set to fall
HGT: Pretty up and down session below the 50 day EMA
KONG: Snugging up against the 10 day EMA on lower volume, still set up for the fall.

New Plays:

Upside:

Play Date: 02/13/2007
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$25.57; -0.13; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-29-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ATHR is testing the early February breakout from an 11 week base that is acting as the handle to a larger 11 week cup with handle base. While a lot of semis are struggling, there are a few pearls that are leading the market. ATHR is one. Nice test back to the 10 day EMA (25.33) this week after the strong surge to start February. Excellent pattern, solid fundamentals growth rates. After this pullback it looks ready to make the break higher once more.
Volume: 1.409M Avg Volume: 2.192M
BUY POINT: $26.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$31.65 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: QRA FE - June $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/athr.html

Play Date: 02/13/2007
GGB (Gerdau--$18.17; +1.09; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. GGB blasted higher to start February, moving out of a 9 month base, touching a new high on the move. It retreated last week, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (17.00) on the Monday low. It held and rebounded Tuesday, and it was quite impressive with a tremendous volume surge to go along with price. Ready for a new all-time high. Split its stock last April and likes to do so frequently. Thus if we can get into it and hold it, letting it split for us several times we have a lot of shares we can use to write covered calls against when it hits its peaks, then buying them back later. We did this with LUV back in the 1990's and turned 1,000 shares into almost 11,000 shares to write calls against. With that many if you make 0.50 per option each time you make a wad of cash just 'renting' out your stock. Ready to move in as GGB continues higher.
Volume: 3.39M Avg Volume: 1.373M
BUY POINT: $18.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$21.98 Stop=$17.22
POSITION: GGB FW - June $17.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ggb.html

Play Date: 02/13/2007
IYT (Dow Jones Transportation ETF--$90.17; +1.55; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iyt.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Just starting to break to a new all-time high as it moves out of a 9 month accumulation base. Actually, there was a smaller base within that base, a 3 month reverse H&S that it broke out of to end January. A quick test this month back to the 10 day EMA (88.64), and wham. Back up Tuesday. Transports continue to rally; some are calling this a potential triple top. Could be, but if the transports blow on through that pretty much decimates that theory.
Volume: 422.516K Avg Volume: 600.705K
BUY POINT: $90.28 Volume=650K Target=$100.00 Stop=$88.55
POSITION: IYT FR - June $90c (58 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/iyt.html

Downside:

Play Date: 02/13/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$25.68; -1.03; optionable): Telecom networking equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: 2-15-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. NTGR gapped higher in late October, moving out of a 5 month base. It immediately fell into a lateral range and rallied to start the year as techs started their rally. Looked super until the techs lost their bid. NTGR did more than just lose its bid; it sold in high volume, tried to hold the 50 day EMA, but failed. It came back to start February, but it failed at the 50 day EMA to end last week. Tuesday it broke below the 90 day MA (25.91) on stronger, average trade. This is the neckline and NTGR looks ready to fill that late October gap. Love to play gap fills; it is like an extra magnet pulling the stock in addition to the good breakdown pattern. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 718.589K Avg Volume: 690.869K
BUY POINT: $25.48 Volume=700K Target=$23.85 Stop=$26.04
POSITION: TUD OE - Mar. $25p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ntgr.html

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.

AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX

AKAM: Hanging on at the 18 day EMA. Very volatile of late and would prefer it settle down a bit before we get any new patterns.

CELG: Dove to the 90 day MA in an unpleasant development. Getting kind of head and shoulderish.

GME: Did we say it announced a split? Sure did not help it much, but GME is holding firm over the 90 day MA thus far.

GOOG: Fell through the 90 day MA Friday and has not made any effort to recover. There is some support near 455-460 it is trying to hold.

NVDA: Reported earnings after hours and was initially up over $1.00 but faded to change in late trade.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock split
stock recommendation